PAS LEADER FAVORS TAKING POWER THROUGH NEXT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUALA LUMPUR 000423

SIPDIS

FOR EAP/MTS AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM MY
SUBJECT: PAS LEADER FAVORS TAKING POWER THROUGH NEXT
ELECTION; SNAP POLLS POSSIBLE

REF: A. KUALA LUMPUR 408 - MAHATHIR RESIGNS

B. KUALA LUMPUR 377 - EAST MALAYSIA DEFECTIONS

C. KUALA LUMPUR 364 - ON EDGE OR STABILIZING?

Classified By: POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MARK D. CLARK, REASON 1.4 (B AND
D).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Nasaruddin Mat Isa, Deputy President of the Islamist
opposition party PAS, speaking with us on May 21, said the
opposition should seek to take power through the next federal
election, rather than through immediate defections by ruling
coalition MPs, in part to reduce the risk of a harsh
crackdown by the National Front government. PAS leaders are
geared up for possible snap national elections, but
opposition parties would not rerun elections in the five
states they control. Nasaruddin linked Mahathir's surprise
resignation from the UMNO party with the Cabinet's decision
to release a prominent report on judicial corruption that
implicates the former Prime Minister. End Summary.

Elections, Not Defections
--------------


2. (C) Nasaruddin Mat Isa, Deputy President of the
opposition Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) and Member of
Parliament, told us on May 21 that PAS was not very happy
with talk of ruling National Front (BN) Members of Parliament
crossing over to the opposition Peoples Alliance and thus
bringing down the BN government (refs B and C). PAS
leadership believed that the Alliance at this juncture should
maintain the current political status quo and strengthen
their administration in the five opposition-held states.
Once the opposition parties can demonstrate to the public
that they can deliver, the people will support the Peoples
Alliance and topple the BN government in the next election.
Furthermore, even if enough BN MPs were to cross over to the
Alliance, UMNO and BN leaders will not give up power easily.
By virtue of his position, PM Abdullah is still very
powerful, and "he still has the option of declaring emergency
rule" or using the Internal Security Act (ISA) to detain
UMNO's opponents, although Nasaruddin quickly added Abdullah
"is no Mahathir" (i.e., not as likely to use authoritarian
methods).

Snap Polls Possible, But Not in Opposition States
-------------- --------------


3. (C) PAS leaders were geared up for Prime Minister
Abdullah calling a snap election if the current "political
impasse persists in UMNO," Nasaruddin said. He stressed,
however, that if the PM dissolves Parliament, the Alliance
will not follow suit in dissolving the state legislative
assemblies of the five states under their control. An MP
from Anwar Ibrahim's Peoples Justice Party (PKR) who joined
us, nodded in agreement. (Note: State governments need not
follow the federal electoral cycle, though in recent history
all states except Sarawak have held elections coinciding with
the national polls. End Note.)

Mahathir's UMNO Resignation Linked to Judicial Probe
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Nasaruddin pointed out proudly that it was a PAS
member who "brought down" Mahathir by precipitating the
former Prime Minister's decision to resign from UMNO (ref A).
(Note: At a public forum on May 19, Mahathir called on UMNO
members to leave the party temporarily as the only way to
bring down PM Abdullah. Reportedly, one member of the
audience who turned out to be a PAS member dared the former
PM to lead the way in leaving the party, and Mahathir obliged
on the spot. End Note.)


5. (C) In addition, Nasaruddin contended that Mahathir's
shock May 19 announcement was influenced by the Cabinet's
decision on May 16 to publish the Royal Commission report
probing allegations of corruption in the judiciary (the
Linggam inquiry). The report concluded that six prominent
government and judicial figures including Mahathir were
involved in the manipulation of appointments of top judges
for political purposes. The PAS leader speculated that the
publication of the photographs of six personalities in the
front pages of newspapers even before the Attorney General
Chambers started its investigation must have angered the
former PM who felt that his legacy was crumbling. In the

KUALA LUMP 00000423 002 OF 002


rural areas, particularly in the Malay heartland, the six
photographs are shown at evening rallies (ceramahs)
associating them with a famous 1960s Malay movie "Enam
Jahanam" (or "Doomed Six").
KEITH