Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08KUALALUMPUR377
2008-05-13 11:50:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Cable title:  

OPPOSITION SIGNALS IMMINENT EAST MALAYSIA

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR KDEM MY 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO2874
OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHKL #0377/01 1341150
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 131150Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY KUALA LUMPUR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0983
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RHHMUNA/USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUALA LUMPUR 000377 

SIPDIS

FOR EAP AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2028
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM MY
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION SIGNALS IMMINENT EAST MALAYSIA
DEFECTIONS FROM RULING COALITION

REF: A. KUALA LUMPUR 364 - ON EDGE OR STABILIZING?

B. KUALA LUMPUR 340 - MALAYSIA'S FLUID SCENE

Classified By: Political Section Chief Mark D. Clark, reason 1.4 (b and
d).

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUALA LUMPUR 000377

SIPDIS

FOR EAP AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2028
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM MY
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION SIGNALS IMMINENT EAST MALAYSIA
DEFECTIONS FROM RULING COALITION

REF: A. KUALA LUMPUR 364 - ON EDGE OR STABILIZING?

B. KUALA LUMPUR 340 - MALAYSIA'S FLUID SCENE

Classified By: Political Section Chief Mark D. Clark, reason 1.4 (b and
d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) De facto opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim and his
lieutenants, both publicly and privately, are raising
expectations of possible imminent defections by National
Front (BN) MPs, particularly from East Malaysia. Senior Vice
President of Anwar's PKR party Azmin Ali told us to expect a
public announcement of initial defections May 17-18 in East
Malaysia, where potential BN defectors are under "tremendous
pressure, surveillance and threat" not to cross over to the
opposition. PM Abdullah reportedly undertook emergency
consultations with a small BN party from Sabah after the
party issued a public ultimatum and insinuated it could
change sides. Recent weeks have seen unprecedented public
criticism by BN Sabah MPs against Abdullah's government for
marginalizing Sabah and not recognizing the role that East
Malaysia plays in keeping BN in power. Given UMNO's current
anxieties over Anwar Ibrahim, the imminent announcement of
several confirmed BN defections could deliver a shock to UMNO
leadership and put increased pressure on PM Abdullah to step
aside or take some forceful action to preserve UMNO's 51-year
hold on power. End Summary.

Defections Imminent?
--------------


2. (C) Senior Vice President of Anwar Ibrahim's Parti
KeADILan Rakyat (PKR) and MP Azmin Ali, speaking to us on May
13 on the margins of a Parliament session, affirmed Anwar's
claim made at a May 12 press conference that some BN
parliamentarians would be defecting soon to PKR. Azmin
predicted the defection of some BN members would be announced
over the May 17-18 weekend from "the other side" (referring
to Sabah and Sarawak) and added that Anwar will be there to
receive the "defecting parties and Members of Parliament."
Azmin said East Malaysian MPs are under "tremendous pressure,
surveillance and threat" not to cross over to Pakatan Rakyat
coalition. He described UMNO/BN Secretary General Tengku

Adnan as a "gangster," who has been keeping a close watch on
the MPs. Azmin added that the East Malaysian members of
Parliament wanted to defect to Pakatan before the current
session of Parliament ends on May 27.


3. (C) In response to our question of why the opposition
would make such a move now before Anwar himself has entered
Parliament, Azmin explained even if "one of us were to
resign" (to set the stage for a by-election) the Election
Commission would schedule the by-election at the very end of
the mandatory 60-day period, giving BN and the Commission
time to "manipulate the electoral roll" and guarantee that
Anwar would lose the contest. Therefore it was better for
the opposition to bring the defecting MPs from BN across,
form an interim government, and then have a by-election for
Anwar to contest and enter to Parliament. Once the Peoples
Alliance obtains the mandate to form the government, it will
immediately oust the current Election Commission Chairman,
who is seen as able to block Anwar's chances of becoming an
MP.


4. (C) Azmin alleged that Pakatan had the support of the
army and the palace but was unsure about the police force,
which was "divided" over the issue of a potential opposition
takeover. He added that PKR leaders have approached DAP to
rein in their party Chairman Karpal Singh, who recently has
openly questioned the powers of the Malay royalty. It was
essential to ensure the support of these traditional Malay
rulers "when there is a change of government." Azmin also
indicated that Pakatan leaders privately have been sending
feelers to the army, police and the palace to assure them
that a potential opposition government will not affect the
position of the Malays, as claimed by Malay NGOs instigated
by UMNO and the government controlled media. Azmin echoed
recent statements by Anwar and his wife and Opposition
Speaker Wan Azizah that Pakatan will continue uphold the
Constitution, including the special position of the Malays
and Islam, despite replacing UMNO's "Ketuanan Melayu" (Malay
Supremacy) concept with "Ketuanan Rakyat" (Peoples
Supremacy).


5. (C) Information Minister and UMNO leader Shabery Cheek

KUALA LUMP 00000377 002 OF 002


told us in Parliament on May 13, "there is no credence
whatsoever to Anwar' claims that East Malaysian Members of
Parliament will defect to Pakatan Rakyat." Meanwhile, also
on May 13, the President of SAPP (Sabah Peoples Progressive
Party),a member of the BN coalition with two MPs, gave a
public ultimatum to the Prime Minister to resolve Sabah's
grievances by August or face the prospect of defections. PM
Abdullah took the situation serious enough to meet with SAPP
leaders on May 12-13, according to the local blog "Malaysian
Insider," and reportedly headed off their possible defection
by assuring them that Sabah's concerns would be addressed.


6. (SBU) Recent weeks have seen unprecedented criticism by
BN Sabah MPs claiming that the Federal government has treated
the state like a "step child," and maintaining that the
ruling coalition is not recognizing the role that Sabah and
Sarawak are playing to keep BN in power. The two states
combined have 54 seats of BN's 140 seats in Parliament.
Ghafur Salleh, an UMNO warlord and MP from Sabah, stated in
Parliament May 12 that Sabah MPs were insulted to be given
only three ministerial posts when it was Sabah and Sarawak
MPs who had enabled Barisan Nasional to secure a simple
majority in the recent general election. On the other hand,
he lamented "One state has seven ministers (referring to
Johor),another state lost its state government and yet has
four ministers (referring to Selangor)." Ghafur had
surprised UMNO leaders by declining a Deputy Minister's
position when the Cabinet was announced on March 18. He
stated that those ministerial positions allocated to Sabah
MPs were very minor. Ghafur drew wild applause from
opposition MPs when he remarked that Sabah wants "justice"
(an obviously intended double entendre with reference also to
Anwar's Peoples Justice Party). Another Sabah MP, Anifah
Aman (Sabah Chief Minister Musa Aman's brother) openly stated
in Parliament that there is nothing wrong in switching
parties when Sabah is marginalized.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Rumors of BN defections have spiked over the past few
days, and the Kuala Lumpur political circuit is awash in
speculation, particularly regarding East Malaysia. The
opposition alliance requires 30 BN MPs to defect in order to
claim the majority in Parliament and bring down Abdullah's
government. Given UMNO's current anxieties over Anwar
Ibrahim, however, even the imminent announcement of several
confirmed BN defections could deliver a shock to UMNO
leadership and put increased pressure on Prime Minister
Abdullah to step aside or take some forceful action to
preserve UMNO's 51-year hold on power.
KEITH