Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08KUALALUMPUR295
2008-04-21 12:55:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Cable title:  

ABDULLAH PUSHES REFORMS DESPITE UMNO, NAJIB DRAWS

Tags:  PGOV PINR KDEM MY 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO3393
PP RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHKL #0295/01 1121255
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 211255Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY KUALA LUMPUR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0858
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHHMUNA/USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUALA LUMPUR 000295 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR EAP/MTS AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2028
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM MY
SUBJECT: ABDULLAH PUSHES REFORMS DESPITE UMNO, NAJIB DRAWS
FLAK FOR NOT MOVING

REF: A. KUALA LUMPUR 294 - JUDICIAL REFORM

B. KUALA LUMPUR 265 - ANWAR'S OFFICIAL RETURN

C. KUALA LUMPUR 261 - MORE UMNO PRESSURE FOR CHANGE

D. KUALA LUMPUR 256 - UMNO VOICES NAJIB TAKE-OVER

E. KUALA LUMPUR 223 - UMNO ELECTIONS IN DECEMBER

F. KUALA LUMPUR 202 - KING VERSUS PRIME MINISTER

G. KUALA LUMPUR 178 - UMNO STOKES MALAY FEARS

H. KUALA LUMPUR 160 - MALAYSIA'S ELECTION SHOCK

Classified By: POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MARK D. CLARK, REASON 1.4 (B AND
D).

Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUALA LUMPUR 000295

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR EAP/MTS AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2028
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM MY
SUBJECT: ABDULLAH PUSHES REFORMS DESPITE UMNO, NAJIB DRAWS
FLAK FOR NOT MOVING

REF: A. KUALA LUMPUR 294 - JUDICIAL REFORM

B. KUALA LUMPUR 265 - ANWAR'S OFFICIAL RETURN

C. KUALA LUMPUR 261 - MORE UMNO PRESSURE FOR CHANGE

D. KUALA LUMPUR 256 - UMNO VOICES NAJIB TAKE-OVER

E. KUALA LUMPUR 223 - UMNO ELECTIONS IN DECEMBER

F. KUALA LUMPUR 202 - KING VERSUS PRIME MINISTER

G. KUALA LUMPUR 178 - UMNO STOKES MALAY FEARS

H. KUALA LUMPUR 160 - MALAYSIA'S ELECTION SHOCK

Classified By: POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MARK D. CLARK, REASON 1.4 (B AND
D).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Embattled Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi announced
initial steps for judicial reform and strengthening the
Anti-Corruption Agency (ACA) despite objections from his own
UMNO party, PM confidante Kalimullah told the Ambassador on
April 17. Deputy Prime Minister Najib thus far is sticking
by the Prime Minister, but a challenge by Najib would bring
down Abdullah, Kalimullah asserted. Some UMNO leaders, along
with former PM Mahathir, are increasingly frustrated with
Najib for not making a move against the Prime Minister, and
have warned that Najib could miss his opportunity and find
himself swept aside. End Summary.

PM Acts on Reforms Despite UMNO Objections
--------------


2. (C) In an April 17 lunch with the Ambassador, PM Abdullah
confidante and spin doctor Kalimullah Hassan said that in
addition to the PM's moves on judicial independence (ref A),
Abdullah hoped to announce measures that would increase the
independence of the Anti-Corruption Agency (ACA),including
making the ACA answerable to Parliament rather than the PM's
office. (Note: The PM announced the outline of this plan on
April 21. End Note.) Kalimullah said Abdullah, despite
significant opposition in UMNO, would take a series of
dynamic steps to lead the party toward the kind of political
reforms that the PM had promised but never delivered. While
conceding that the PM would have to push such measures
through the cabinet, he stressed that Abdullah and his inner
circle believed there was little to lose at this point. The
reforms were intended to assure the PM's legacy now by

cementing changes that will benefit the country in the long
term. Kalimullah expressed confidence that reforms pushed
through by Abdullah could bring back many of the voters who
deserted the BN and enable UMNO to win the next election.
Abdullah has embarked on a new path and will not back down,
Kali averred.


3. (C) Kalimullah viewed Home Minister Syed Hamid as a
leading force for those "backward looking" elements of UNMO
"refusing to acknowledge reality." Kalimullah claimed that
he supported New Straits Times (NST) editors in their
resistance to Hamid's efforts to censor them. (Comment: The
NST often acts as a pro-Abdullah platform, and reportedly
Kalimullah helps in this orchestration of the press. End
Comment.) Kalimullah thought the Malaysian Chinese
Association (MCA) could be part of a revitalized National
Front (BN) coalition, but saw Samy Vellu and the Malaysian
Indian Congress (MIC) as beyond resuscitation.

PM's Longevity and Najib's Support
--------------


4. (C) Kalimullah thought that with Najib's support Abdullah
could hold on for at most another two to two and a half
years, i.e., up until about a year before the next UMNO
General Assembly after the one December 2008. He emphasized,
however, that the PM would not survive a challenge from
Najib, and added that such a challenge could happen even
before December of this year. If the longer scenario worked
out, Najib would replace Abdullah and Muhyiddin would succeed
Najib. Anwar could try to force the pace, but Kalimullah
agreed that it would make no sense for Anwar to press for an
early no-confidence vote in Parliament. He accused Anwar of
buying the votes of MPs in East Malaysia using a Chinese
businessman as broker and noted that some in UMNO wanted to
compete with Anwar in such tactics, but that Abdullah would
oppose this. (Comment: UMNO has a long history of buying
political support, and both Abdullah and Anwar, when he was
in UMNO, have directed such tactics. End Comment.)

Najib's Inaction Draws Fire
--------------


KUALA LUMP 00000295 002 OF 002



5. (C) UMNO Johor division leader and MP Nur Jazlan told
polchief on April 18 that he "in honesty" had asked Abdullah
to step down during the PM's consultation in Johor on April
11, as subsequently posted in Nur Jazlan's personal internet
blog. UMNO would require years to restore itself after the
March 8 election debacle and may never recover fully, so
leadership change must start now. Nur Jazlan said UMNO has
lost its confidence. Instead of focusing on winning over 8
seats to reestablish a two-thirds parliamentary majority,
UMNO was running scared of Anwar Ibrahim's claims that he
could topple the government by recruiting 30 government MPs.
Nur Jazlan acknowledged that Anwar could precipitate events,
but thought Anwar's interests were served by preserving
Abdullah for the short term.


6. (C) Nur Jazlan expressed frustration with Najib's lack of
action to force Abdullah out. If Najib does not act soon,
"he will be swept away along with Abdullah," and UMNO VP
Muhyiddin Yassin may be the beneficiary. He dismissed the
notion that Abdullah could reach out to the opposition to
push a reform agenda. He added that Abdullah's initial
judicial reforms were not substantive and did not strengthen
his position in UMNO. (Comment: The normally reflective and
even tempered Nur Jazlan came across in this meeting as
nervous and angry. End Comment.)


7. (U) On April 19, UMNO Supreme Council member Khir Toyo
explained in his blog that previously he had written about
the need for Abdullah "to execute an exit plan as urged by
many quarters, including UMNO Johor.... The transition (from
Abdullah to Najib) does not seem to be happening anytime
soon, creating a few possible scenarios - one of them being
the loss of public confidence in Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak."
Khir Toyo warned that Anwar Ibrahim planned to stand in a
by-election, and UMNO would need new leadership to
reestablish party confidence and prevail against Anwar.


8. (U) Former Prime Minister Mahathir also spoke out on
April 19, telling reporters Najib was not "brave enough" to
act, and called Najib a "coward." Mahathir, who earlier this
month had signaled he no longer supported Najib as the next
Prime Minister, said that in an UMNO competition, "Najib will
have to face competition from others such as Muhyiddin Yassin
and (Foreign Minister) Rais Yatim...."

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Abdullah is reaching out to the public with announced
plans to take some reform steps that have popular appeal.
Meanwhile, UMNO leaders who have pushed publicly and
privately for Abdullah to step down in favor of Najib are
frustrated by Najib's inaction, which as days go by leaves
them awkwardly exposed in their clear opposition to their
party president and Prime Minister. Clearly, it will be more
difficult for UMNO dissidents to move against both Abdullah
and Najib at the same. The future will tell whether it is
Najib who is missing his golden opportunity to take the
reins, or Abdullah's critics who have mistimed their
opposition to the Prime Minister.

KEITH