Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08KUALALUMPUR265
2008-04-15 11:52:00
SECRET
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Cable title:  

ANWAR'S OFFICIAL RETURN - CELEBRATION AND

Tags:  PGOV PINR KDEM MY 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO7822
PP RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHKL #0265/01 1061152
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 151152Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY KUALA LUMPUR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0805
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHHMUNA/USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KUALA LUMPUR 000265 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR EAP/MTS AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM MY
SUBJECT: ANWAR'S OFFICIAL RETURN - CELEBRATION AND
UNCERTAINTY

REF: A. KUALA LUMPUR 261 - MORE UMNO PRESSURE FOR CHANGE


B. KUALA LUMPUR 256 - UMNO VOICES NAJIB TAKE-OVER

C. KUALA LUMPUR 223 - UMNO ELECTIONS IN DECEMBER

D. KUALA LUMPUR 202 - KING VERSUS PRIME MINISTER

E. KUALA LUMPUR 178 - UMNO STOKES MALAY FEARS

F. KUALA LUMPUR 160 - MALAYSIA'S ELECTION SHOCK

Classified By: POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MARK D. CLARK, REASON 1.4 (B AND
D).

Summary
-------

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KUALA LUMPUR 000265

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR EAP/MTS AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/15/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM MY
SUBJECT: ANWAR'S OFFICIAL RETURN - CELEBRATION AND
UNCERTAINTY

REF: A. KUALA LUMPUR 261 - MORE UMNO PRESSURE FOR CHANGE


B. KUALA LUMPUR 256 - UMNO VOICES NAJIB TAKE-OVER

C. KUALA LUMPUR 223 - UMNO ELECTIONS IN DECEMBER

D. KUALA LUMPUR 202 - KING VERSUS PRIME MINISTER

E. KUALA LUMPUR 178 - UMNO STOKES MALAY FEARS

F. KUALA LUMPUR 160 - MALAYSIA'S ELECTION SHOCK

Classified By: POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MARK D. CLARK, REASON 1.4 (B AND
D).

Summary
--------------


1. (S) Anwar Ibrahim and his People's Justice Party (PKR)
celebrated the expiration of the ban on Anwar holding formal
political office at an April 14 rally in Kuala Lumpur, an
event intended to maintain the opposition leader's political
momentum. Police intervened to stop the "illegal gathering"
at the end of Anwar's hour-long address, and launched
investigations into organizers, including Anwar's wife, who
did not apply for a police permit. While publicly
celebratory, privately PKR continues to strike a much more
cautionary tone. Senior PKR leader Tian Chua reiterated to
polchief on April 15 that Anwar wished to proceed cautiously
to avoid a crackdown or an ethnic Malay backlash driven by PM
Abdullah's UMNO party. Anwar recognized the rapidly
increasing possibility that DPM Najib takes over power from
PM Abdullah (refs A and B); reportedly identified this as a
key threat to the opposition; and would consider trying to
bring down the National Front government by asking government
MPs to cross-over should power shift to Najib. The final
weeks of April before the opening of the new Parliament
represent a critical time. Anwar and PKR's public
celebration masks the political uncertainty and sense of risk
we have heard consistently from Anwar's confidantes. End
Summary.

Anwar's Official Return From Political Wilderness
-------------- --------------


2. (U) On April 14, the People's Justice Party (PKR) held a
well-publicized rally in Kuala Lumpur honoring the end of the
five-year ban on opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim from holding
public office stemming from his conviction on corruption
charges. Police estimated attendance at 7,000, although

media and PKR sources put the number between 10,000 and
40,000. Anwar delivered a fiery one-hour address, claiming
the opposition Peoples Alliance had enough members from the
ruling National Front (BN) ready to switch sides to "topple
the government," but offering a tempered view on if and how
this would happen, with one option to wait until Anwar
contests for Parliament in a by-election. Anwar announced
that the public should talk about the supremacy for all
Malaysians, not Malay supremacy, turning on its head a slogan
from Prime Minister Abdullah's UMNO party. Anwar reached out
to East Malaysians, who NOW represent a swing block in
Parliament, by promising greater natural resource royalties
for their states under a Peoples Alliance government. Police
interrupted Anwar toward the end of his speech and ordered
the crowd to disperse, claiming the gathering was illegal as
it lacked a permit. Anwar complied with the police and the
event concluded peacefully. On April 15, police began an
initial investigation by issuing summons for Anwar's wife and
three other PKR leaders for their roles in organizing an
"illegal gathering."

Anwar at Tamil New Years Event
--------------


3. (U) Prior to attending the PKR celebration, former Deputy
Prime Minister Anwar made an appearance at an ethnic Indian
rally on the occasion of Tamil New Year in Brickfields, part
of his daughter's, Nurul Izzah, parliamentary district in
Kuala Lumpur. The crowd of some 1,300 roared as Anwar took
the microphone and shouted "Makkaal Sakthi" ("People's Power"
in Tamil) and raised his clinched fists. In his short
speech, Anwar described PM Abdullah's designated successor,
Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak, as "worse than the
current Prime Minister."

PKR Official - Caution, Uncertainty
--------------


4. (C) Polchief met on April 15 with PKR Information Chief
Tian Chua, a key lieutenant to Anwar Ibrahim and now an
elected member of Parliament. Tian Chua said the April 14
celebration achieved its objective of maintaining momentum
for Anwar and the opposition, despite the police

KUALA LUMP 00000265 002 OF 002


intervention. He was concerned, however, that the police
actions could represent the initial steps in a period of
"harassment" against Anwar. Tian emphasized that Anwar
recognized he needed to proceed cautiously at this point so
as not to precipitate or provide the pretext for a
crack-down, or to frighten ethnic Malays into supporting an
UMNO-driven backlash. He acknowledged that superficially at
least initial steps by opposition-held states had favored
ethnic minority interests, but concluded that widespread
Malay unrest appeared farfetched. BN efforts so far to
generate Malay fears had failed. Nevertheless, he noted with
mild concern the April 12 Malay NGO rally, held in UMNO's
convention center, which featured chauvinistic Malay speeches
calling for the defense of Malay sovereignty and headlined by
the crown prince of Kelantan state. The position of the
Malay traditional rulers would be important to an UMNO effort
to rally Malays, Tian commented.


5. (C) Tian stated that within the new Peoples Alliance, PKR
and the Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) were cooperating well.
PAS was a solid partner, and, Tian offered, not likely to be
convinced to join forces with UMNO in a Malay alliance.
(Comment: This unsolicited comment suggested to us that PKR
had seriously considered the PAS-UMNO scenario. End
Comment.) The Chinese-dominated Democratic Action Party
(DAP) was more troublesome, particularly its old-time leaders
Karpal Singh and Lim Kit Siang who were trapped in the
opposition politics of the past.

Possible Najib Take-Over a Threat to Opposition
-------------- --


6. (S) Anwar did not want BN MPs to cross over to the
opposition now, and thus bring down the BN government at this
point, according to Tian. Anwar and his allies were not
ready, and the resulting Peoples Alliance government would be
far too fragile to rule effectively and institute reforms;
the government probably would perform poorly and damage the
opposition's chances of winning a sizable majority in a
future election. The one exception to this calculation would
be an imminent hand-over of power from PM Abdullah to DPM
Najib. Anwar recognized the rapidly increasing possibility
that DPM Najib takes over from PM Abdullah (refs A and B),
and he identified this as a key threat to the opposition.
Anwar reportedly assessed Najib as likely to and capable of
imposing more authoritarian measures like former Prime
Minister Mahathir in the 1980s. Before Najib had the
opportunity to take stern, emergency measures against the
opposition, Anwar would consider bringing down the government
by asking for BN MPs to cross-over. When asked about the
political calendar for the remainder of 2008, Tian responded
that Anwar and PKR were much more focused on the political
uncertainty of the next two weeks, prior to the opening of
the new Parliament, growing out of the UMNO leadership
crisis: "We don't know where we'll be at the end of April."

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Anwar and PKR's public celebration masks the sense of
great political uncertainty and caution we have heard
consistently from Anwar's confidantes. From the opposition
viewpoint, the current situation is both fluid and fraught
with risk.
KEITH