MORE UMNO PRESSURE FOR IMMEDIATE LEADERSHIP CHANGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUALA LUMPUR 000261

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR EAP/MTS AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/14/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM MY
SUBJECT: MORE UMNO PRESSURE FOR IMMEDIATE LEADERSHIP CHANGE

REF: A. KUALA LUMPUR 256 - UMNO VOICES NAJIB TAKE-OVER


B. KUALA LUMPUR 223 - UMNO ELECTIONS IN DECEMBER

C. KUALA LUMPUR 202 - KING VERSUS PRIME MINISTER

D. KUALA LUMPUR 178 - UMNO STOKES MALAY FEARS

E. KUALA LUMPUR 160 - MALAYSIA'S ELECTION SHOCK

Classified By: POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MARK D. CLARK, REASON 1.4 (B AND
D).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi's April 11 meeting
with officials from his UMNO party in the key party
stronghold of Johor has focused more pressure on Abdullah to
step down quickly. Abdullah reaffirmed his intention to
transfer power to Deputy Prime Minister Najib, but only
sometime -- possibly two years, according to our source --
after the UMNO election in December. Johor UMNO officials
reportedly rejected Abdullah's approach, asked for the PM to
step down as soon as possible, and stated publicly that their
support for Abdullah was contingent on the PM's acceptance of
Johor's own plan for the leadership transition.
Subsequently, UMNO Vice President and cabinet minister
Muhyiddin said UMNO must undertake "immediate" leadership
change or face disaster. Abdullah's graceful exit strategy
may prove impossible, as UMNO anxiety mounts over the
leadership question. Both Najib and Muhyiddin stand to gain
from Abdullah ceding power prior to the December UMNO
elections. The next UMNO Supreme Council meeting could prove
significant to determining Abdullah's exit. End Summary.

Abdullah Meets Party Leaders in UMNO Bastion
--------------


2. (SBU) Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi's April 11 closed
door meeting with United Malays National Organization (UMNO)
officials in the important UMNO bastion of Johor has focused
more pressure on Abdullah to step aside quickly. Abdullah's
Johor stop followed an earlier consultation among Johor UMNO
division chiefs that reportedly endorsed the Prime Minister's
speedy hand-over to this deputy, Najib Tun Razak (ref A).
After the April 11 meeting, Abdullah acknowledged to
reporters that "there have been demands" for him to resign as
UMNO party president (and as Prime Minister by derivative),
but he wanted to resolve UMNO's internal problems before he
handed over the party's helm to another. In the meantime, "I
have the mandate from the people and I am still the (UMNO)
president," Abdullah defensively told the Bernama state news
agency.

Transition to Najib after UMNO Election, Per Abdullah's Plan
-------------- --------------


3. (SBU) UMNO Vice President Muhyiddin Yassin told reporters
that in the Johor meeting Abdullah had affirmed that he would
discuss the transition of power to DPM Najib, but that
details and timing of the hand over were not addressed. UMNO
Johor Chief and cabinet minister Shahrir Samad added that,
"Abdullah will sort the matter out with Najib after the UMNO
General Assembly (December 2008)." Shahrir's statement
indicates that Abdullah would stand for re-election in the
party polls, which occur during the General Assembly, and
hand-over to Najib at some point thereafter. In this
scenario, Najib eventually would become Prime Minister as
acting UMNO president, like Abdullah in the hand-over from
Mahathir in 2003.

PM Fails to Assuage Concerns
--------------


4. (SBU) Press accounts and Embassy sources indicate that
Abdullah failed to assuage concerns voiced by Johor UMNO
leaders. One UMNO participant told reporters, "we did not
ask (Abdullah) to step down, but there were insinuations...."
In surprisingly blunt comments to the press, Johor UMNO
information chief Mohd Puad Zarkashi said the transition from
Abdullah to Najib should be expedited in an orderly manner,
and that, "(Johor's) support for the Prime Minister was
closely linked to the prime minister's acceptance of the
proposal by the Johor UMNO liaison committee for a transition
plan." Zarkashi added that he was making this clarification
in case UMNO members were confused by the statement of
support for Abdullah that came out of the Johor meeting.

Two Years Too Long; Muhyiddin for Immediate Change
-------------- --------------


5. (C) A close Embassy contact with second-hand access to

KUALA LUMP 00000261 002 OF 002


the information told us that Abdullah had presented the Johor
leaders with a two-year timetable for handing over power to
Najib. The UMNO committee "rejected" this proposal and asked
Abdullah to step aside "as soon as possible." A second
source told us that Johor representatives insisted Abdullah
adopt a "3-S" approach to stepping down, namely "smooth,
structured, speedy." Concern over this situation reportedly
prompted UMNO Vice President Muhyiddin to side with the Johor
officials and utter a strongly worded public warning on April
13: "If (leadership) changes are not made immediately, UMNO
will lose power and can never make a comeback." He added
that grassroots sentiments "are boiling" with "utter
dissatisfaction" and that not speaking the truth of such
matters "can eventually lead to disaster for the Malays and
UMNO."

Comment
--------------


6. (C) UMNO discussions now proceed from the question of
"when" and not "if" Abdullah will step down as party
president and Prime Minister. Public comments from UMNO
state leaders and from UMNO VP Muhyiddin are startling in
their frank message that leadership change must come soon.
Abdullah seemingly intends to stage a graceful exit via his
re-election as party president during the December UMNO
General Assembly followed by a respectable interlude before
handing over to Najib, but this may prove impossible. Given
the present turmoil and unease within UMNO, we sense very
little support for electing Abdullah again as party
president, even with a firm promise of transition to Najib.
By and large, we believe UMNO leaders do not buy Abdullah's
approach as a way to strengthen the party, and in fact
Abdullah's "stubbornness" (the term used by one UMNO
detractor) in remaining in place seems to be feeding
political anxiety rather than calming UMNO.


7. (C) The pressures building against Abdullah work to
Najib's advantage, as it could propel him to the position of
acting UMNO president and Prime Minister going into the UMNO
elections. Muhyiddin, a potential rival to Najib for the top
slot, also would benefit from an UMNO election that is not
intended to formulaically reaffirm Abdullah. UMNO's next
Supreme Council meeting (date yet to be determined) could
turn out to have important bearing on Abdullah's exit plan.
The formal meeting of UMNO's ruling body intends to discuss
the views of UMNO state officials on the party's current
crisis, including a report from the management committee,
headed by Najib and including Muhyiddin, on findings from the
five states lost to the opposition.
KEITH