Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08KUALALUMPUR256
2008-04-11 12:30:00
SECRET
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Cable title:  

UMNO VOICES NAJIB TAKE-OVER; ANWAR TO CONSOLIDATE

Tags:  PGOV PINR KDEM MY 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO9916
PP RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHKL #0256/01 1021230
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 111230Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY KUALA LUMPUR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0793
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHHMUNA/USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KUALA LUMPUR 000256 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR EAP/MTS AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM MY
SUBJECT: UMNO VOICES NAJIB TAKE-OVER; ANWAR TO CONSOLIDATE
GAINS

REF: A. KUALA LUMPUR 223 - UMNO ELECTIONS IN DECEMBER

B. KUALA LUMPUR 202 - KING VERSUS PRIME MINISTER

C. KUALA LUMPUR 178 - UMNO STOKES MALAY FEARS

D. KUALA LUMPUR 160 - MALAYSIA'S ELECTION SHOCK

Classified By: POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MARK D. CLARK, REASON 1.4 (B AND
D).

Summary
-------

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KUALA LUMPUR 000256

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR EAP/MTS AND INR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/2018
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM MY
SUBJECT: UMNO VOICES NAJIB TAKE-OVER; ANWAR TO CONSOLIDATE
GAINS

REF: A. KUALA LUMPUR 223 - UMNO ELECTIONS IN DECEMBER

B. KUALA LUMPUR 202 - KING VERSUS PRIME MINISTER

C. KUALA LUMPUR 178 - UMNO STOKES MALAY FEARS

D. KUALA LUMPUR 160 - MALAYSIA'S ELECTION SHOCK

Classified By: POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MARK D. CLARK, REASON 1.4 (B AND
D).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Division-level leaders from Prime Minister Abdullah's
UMNO party in three states, including the key UMNO stronghold
of Johor, are increasingly voicing support for Abdullah to
step down in the wake of the March 8 election set-back, with
some party officials backing Deputy Prime Minister Najib to
take over. Abdullah has sought to bolster East Malaysia
loyalty, necessary to preserve the National Front coalition's
hold on federal power. Abdullah stated his intention to
announce judicial reform measures, a potentially popular move
that would constitute his first significant post-election
policy initiative. According to senior opposition sources,
opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim is focused now on
consolidation of opposition gains and cementing the formal
opposition alliance, and will not attempt aggressive moves
against the government in the next several months. Anwar
does not intend to quickly pursue entry into Parliament via a
by-election after his ban from formal politics expires April

15. Sources close to Anwar claimed PM Abdullah would have
insufficient support in the security forces, UMNO and the
royalty to employ emergency measures against the opposition.
End Summary.

UMNO Division Heads Seek Abdullah's Replacement
-------------- --


2. (SBU) Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi has come under
increasing fire from his United Malays National Organization
(UMNO) party's divisional leaders in at least three states.
Local and Singaporean press have reported that 20 out of 26
UMNO division leaders (the six excluded leaders are Cabinet
members) in the key UMNO stronghold of Johor met on April 5,
expressed concern that Abdullah was a liability to the party,
and supported the Prime Minister handing over de facto
leadership to his deputy Najib Tun Razak. UMNO Johor chief

and cabinet minister Shahrir Samad offered a weak public
refutation to the reports, noting that the meeting produced,
"no definitive conclusion that the Prime Minister should step
down," seeming to confirm the discontent among his Johor
colleagues. Other UMNO Johor leaders have not commented on
their positions, nor reaffirmed their loyalty to Abdullah in
the wake of these reports. Abdullah traveled to Johor on
April 11 to hold what could be an uncomfortable meeting with
state party leaders.


3. (SBU) Some UMNO divisions in Kedah and Penang states,
which both fell to the opposition, reportedly also are
calling for Abdullah to step down. Members of UMNO's
management committee, led by DPM Najib, embarked on a
fact-finding mission to the five opposition-won states. The
committee's first stop was on April 10 in Kedah, where
according to press accounts two divisions (out of 15)
suggested that Najib and Vice President Muhyiddin (also
present at the meeting as part of the management committee)
should join forces and oust Abdullah at the party election in
December 2008 to restore the people's support. Kedah leaders
blamed Abdullah for not listening to the grassroots
particularly on the choice of candidates. PM Abdullah had
alluded earlier at an UMNO closed door session that the
ruling coalition (BN) lost in these states due to "sabotage
within UMNO" against its candidates. Divisional leaders told
the management committee, however, it was not sabotage but
the UMNO grassroots rejection of the candidates proposed by
the party headquarters.


4. (C) The UMNO management committee supposedly received a
similar message later on April 10 when they met with Penang's
divisional leaders, some of whom also wanted Abdullah to step
down immediately, blaming his "weak leadership" as the main
cause for the debacle in Penang. A long-time embassy contact
close to UMNO officials told us that some of the divisional
leaders who voiced their dissatisfaction were the same
leaders who met with Tengku Razaleigh, the UMNO veteran who
announced he would challenge Abdullah for party president.
Najib, who publicly reiterated his support for Abdullah on
April 7, told reporters that the management committee would
compile feedback from the divisional leaders in the five
opposition-held states and convey their concerns to the UMNO

KUALA LUMP 00000256 002 OF 003


Supreme Council.

Abdullah Seeks to Bolster East Malaysia Loyalty
-------------- --


5. (C) With the UMNO management committee tasked with
consulting divisional leaders in the five
opposition-controlled states, PM Abdullah sought to shore up
loyalty to the ruling National Front (BN) coalition in East
Malaysia, stopping in Sarawak April 4 and in Sabah on April

7. Sabah and Sarawak contributed 54 of the 140 BN seat's in
Parliament, but received only four minor Cabinet positions,
leading to grumblings and adding to rumors of possible
defections that would topple the BN government. In his
dialogue sessions with BN leaders of the two states, Abdullah
pledged to explore the possibility of additional cabinet
positions and more development funds for the two states. He
also promised to review a long standing irritant in the
relative lack of senior federal civil servants from the two
states. In addition, the government announced that the
Speaker and two Deputy Speakers of Parliament would be drawn
from East Malaysia. In return for these pledges, BN leaders
in two states reportedly pledged their support for PM
Abdullah's leadership. In speaking with us, senior leaders
in Anwar Ibrahim's opposition Peoples Justice Party (PKR)
argued that East Malaysian loyalty to BN was not strong, and
could switch to the opposition if UMNO infighting led to a
rupture in the party. These sources indicated, however, that
the opposition had not confirmed deals for East Malaysian MPs
to defect and that the opposition still had much work to do
to reach out to East Malaysia politicians.

Abdullah Promises Judicial Reform
--------------


6. (SBU) In what would constitute Abdullah's first
significant post-election policy initiative, the Prime
Minister announced that his government would institute
judicial reforms intended to regain the public's confidence
in this area. Minister in charge of judicial reform Zaid
Ibrahim added that the soon to be revealed measures would
include increasing the powers and independence of the
judiciary, and setting up of a commission for judicial
appointments. The announcement on judicial reform followed a
widely-noted April 9 speech on the need for "judicial
renaissance" by the respected Perak Regent, Raja Nazrin Shah.
Abdullah's announcement received initial positive comment
across the political spectrum, though the details of
Abdullah's plans were not yet public.

Justice Party Prepares for Anwar's Return
--------------


7. (SBU) While UMNO is grappling with infighting and soul
searching, opposition PKR is organizing a "peoples rally" for
April 14 in Kuala Lumpur to mark the final day of de facto
leader Anwar Ibrahim's legal exclusion from formal political
office resulting from his 1999 conviction for alleged
corruption and abuse of power. PKR expects some 10,000
participants to attend the rally, intended to maintain
Anwar's political "momentum," according a senior advisor to
Anwar. Another senior PKR leader told us the rally's venue,
the Sultan Sulaiman Club, was deliberately chosen for its
symbolic value for Malays as the site of deliberations on
UMNO's formation in 1946 (and also instigation of the 1969
riots). As a practical matter, the club is owned by the
opposition-controlled Selangor state government.


8. (U) Anwar Ibrahim told reporters April 11 that he is in
no rush to enter Parliament through a by-election, the
subject of widespread speculation. Anwar stated that his
priority now is to build an effective and credible opposition
against the ruling BN coalition. Furthermore, he added that
the opposition coalition priority is to ensure accountability
and good governance in managing the five states to portray to
the people that the opposition is a credible alternative to
the BN. The former DPM also denied rumors that that the 82
Peoples Alliance members of parliament would try to move a
vote of no confidence against Abdullah when the new
Parliament begins activities on April 30.


9. (C) Similarly, Anwar advisor Khalid Ibrahim and PKR Vice
President Sivarasa Rasiah, in separate meetings with polchief
April 10-11, stated that Anwar would focus on consolidation
of opposition gains and cementing the formal opposition
alliance in the coming months, and would seek to maintain
momentum without attempting aggressive moves against the BN
government. Effective governance in the five states held by

KUALA LUMP 00000256 003 OF 003


the opposition coalition was critical to convincing
Malaysians the opposition would be capable of running the
national government. In addition, Anwar remained essential
and very much occupied with cementing the opposition Peoples
Alliance and bridging the gap between the Malaysian Islamic
Party (PAS) and the Chinese-dominated Democratic Action Party
(DAP) at both the national and state levels.


10. (C) Sivarasa and Khalid said Anwar was in no rush to
gain elected office through a by-election. Sivarasa
explained that Anwar had no need to enter Parliament until
the point if or when BN parliament members defected to the
opposition in sufficient numbers (32) to bring down the
government, and PKR did not want this to happen soon -- "we
aren't ready." The opposition parties, however, did intend
to use their greater representation in Parliament to keep
pressure on BN and gain public exposure through introduction
of good governance bills.


11. (C) Sivarasa, an ethnic Indian, commented on the need
for Anwar and the opposition to proceed cautiously at this
juncture so as not to alienate ethnic Malays or give UMNO a
cause to stir up Malay fears. So far, UMNO had failed to
generate a Malay backlash but Sivarasa did not discount such
a possibility in the future. In this regard, DAP leaders had
made mistakes in Penang, where the DAP-led state government
quickly indicated the demise of Malay set-asides, and Perak,
where DAP sent an unsettling signal to the Malay population
by insisting on the lion's share of state executive
positions.


12. (S) Pondering worse-case scenarios involving an UMNO
leader invoking emergency powers or the Internal Security Act
against Anwar and the opposition, both Sivarasa and Khalid
contended that UMNO would not have the firm support necessary
to carry out such draconian measures. The PKR leaders stated
that the police and military would not be united behind such
actions, particularly given that some had sympathies for
Anwar, and neither could Abdullah count on the King's support
in a constitutional crisis. Some UMNO leaders also would
balk at these steps. In addition, Abdullah lacked the strong
leadership qualities needed to execute a crackdown, unlike
his predecessor Mahathir. Both Sivarasa and Khalid gave
similar accounts of Anwar receiving pre-election intelligence
from within the security services, which had allowed Anwar in
the final days of the campaign to predict with some accuracy
the opposition gains in the polls.

Comment
--------------


13. (C) UMNO's announcement of party polls, culminating in
planned leadership elections in December (ref A),has not
settled the party's internal crisis and Abdullah continues to
face real threats to his position as Prime Minister.
Significant UMNO elements still are pushing for more rapid
leadership change. With UMNO preoccupied with internal power
struggles, Anwar and the three opposition parties have
greater opportunity to get their own act together in five
state governments and to cement their formal Peoples
Alliance. Anwar's reportedly cautious approach at this
juncture makes political sense, but, as our contacts admit,
the political scene remains difficult to predict for any of
the actors.
KEITH