Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08KUALALUMPUR182
2008-03-14 09:52:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Kuala Lumpur
Cable title:  

MALAYSIA'S ELECTION: EMBASSY OBSERVATIONS IN

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR KDEM MY 
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VZCZCXRO4825
PP RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHKL #0182/01 0740952
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 140952Z MAR 08
FM AMEMBASSY KUALA LUMPUR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0700
INFO RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 2492
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0397
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 KUALA LUMPUR 000182 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

FOR EAP/MTS, INR AND DRL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM MY
SUBJECT: MALAYSIA'S ELECTION: EMBASSY OBSERVATIONS IN
BATTLEGROUND STATES

REF: A. KUALA LUMPUR 160 - ELECTION SHOCK

B. KUALA LUMPUR 158 - FINAL PUSH

C. KUALA LUMPUR 154 - CLEAN FINGERS

D. KUALA LUMPUR 140 - CAMPAIGN UNDERWAY

Summary
-------

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 KUALA LUMPUR 000182

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

FOR EAP/MTS, INR AND DRL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM MY
SUBJECT: MALAYSIA'S ELECTION: EMBASSY OBSERVATIONS IN
BATTLEGROUND STATES

REF: A. KUALA LUMPUR 160 - ELECTION SHOCK

B. KUALA LUMPUR 158 - FINAL PUSH

C. KUALA LUMPUR 154 - CLEAN FINGERS

D. KUALA LUMPUR 140 - CAMPAIGN UNDERWAY

Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) Embassy KL positioned election observers in six
hotly contested states during the final days of Malaysia's
campaign period and on the March 8 polling day. In addition
to our previous reporting on campaigns in the capital city
areas of Kuala Lumpur and Selangor, this message provides
first hand observations from Perak, Terengannu, Penang,
Kedah, Kelantan and Sabah. We observed common patterns in
many of these states which highlight some factors that may
have brought about the unprecedented opposition gains (ref
A). Despite the prevalence of signs, banners and flags
around the country for Prime Minister Abdullah's National
Front (Barisan Nasional or BN) coalition, and despite the
coalition's heavy dominance of the mainstream media, the BN
was out-campaigned in many areas. The opposition parties'
ceramahs, or street rallies, dwarfed BN's efforts, and the
coalition's decision to limit most campaigning to small
groups and "walk-a-bouts" failed to draw the large number of
votes to which it was accustomed. Issues of corruption,
crime, good governance, fair elections and racial equality
resonated loudly in the communities that eventually fell to
the opposition, and many voters chose "anyone but BN."
Finally, on the peninsula we also saw a general lack of
confidence among both BN volunteers and candidates in
constituencies that the eventually fell to the opposition.
The opposition's energetic campaigns contrasted with
lackluster BN efforts, foreshadowing the serious political
setback suffered by Prime Minister Abdullah and BN in the
March 8 polls. End Summary.

Perak
--------------


2. (SBU) In our early visits around Perak's capital of Ipoh
we heard many conclude that the Malaysian Chinese Association
(MCA) would have a tough time beating DAP. The MCA ceramahs
were far from a success and turn outs were minimal. Staffers
of the BN-MCA candidates went around the tables, shook hands

and handed out brochures, hand fans and CDs. We attended a
typical ceramah that had a maximum of 500 people in
attendance with about 30 per cent of the crowd being
children. They were there primarily to watch the Lion Dance
(which the party paid RM 8000 for a 10 minute performance).
When the performance ended the people began leaving. By the
time the 3 late-teens girls act finished singing and the
politicians started talking, the crowd was less than 200 and
most were ignoring the speakers. People were just not
interested. Looking for other BN activities, we walked into
the United Malays National Organization (UMNO) building, but
it was sparsely staffed and looked like a ghost town. We
were told they were not holding any ceramahs, only going
door-to-door.


3. (SBU) We also attended parliamentary opposition leader Lim
Kit Siang's last ceramah in Perak. It was raining heavily up
until the start of the event. When we arrived the rain had
just stopped and there were almost 2000 people, with
umbrellas. There were no performances or gimmicks to attract
the crowd, only speakers. The people came in droves and by
11:30pm there were about 20,000 people mostly of Chinese and
Indian descent, at the event. Speakers worked up the crowd
mentioning the brandishing of the ceremonial Malay kris at
the UMNO conventions. They emphasized that Chinese born in
Malaysia are also true Malaysians; and touched on religious
cases of Lina Joy, and other conversion cases; and on
education and the number of Chinese schools allocated in the
last 10 years. Speakers also complained of the Altantuya
murder case and called it the "MongolianNajib" case, in
reference to Deputy Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak's
alleged connections to the case. Making fun of Prime
Minister Abdullah's reputation of sleeping through meetings,
one speaker commented that the Royal Malaysian Customs close
"one eye" to matters but the Prime Minister closes "both
eyes". Speakers frequently referenced the rising crime rates
and linked the crimes with corruption and poor governance.
Speakers made reference to the Anti-Corruption Agency (ACA)
and renamed it "Another Collection Agency," and highlighted
the endemic corruption that was apparent in the VK Lingam

KUALA LUMP 00000182 002 OF 005


case.


4. (SBU) Election day was uneventful. Embassy observers
traveled around Ipoh to different polling sites. At each
site the people were coming in a steady trickle. Volunteer
civil-defense personnel (RELA) or police were at all the
polls, with a BN booth (locally called a "pondok panas")
set-up near-by to help voters verify their registrations.
Observers did not see any buses or other overt forms of
possible voting irregularities.


Terengganu
--------------


5. (SBU) We observed the election in three districts -
Marang, Kuala Terengganu, and Kuala Nerus. Kuala Terengganu
was awash with banners and posters of both parties. However,
both the Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS) and UMNO did not
hold any mass ceramahs two days prior to polling, but instead
focused on smaller neighborhood ceramahs door-to-door
campaigning and the distribution of political pamphlets and
CDs. In Kuala Nerus, it was a similar situation as in Kuala
Terengganu. However, in the PAS stronghold of Marang and the
state constituencies within the district, it was obvious that
there were many more PAS posters and banners compared to BN.


6. (SBU) In PAS ceramahs, we noted that speakers were
focusing on two issues - Islamic values and the "kain kapan"
(or funeral shrouds). The speakers were emphasizing the
importance of Islam and the afterlife. They told the people
that they should vote for the "right candidate" but reminded
everyone that it is sinful to vote for a candidate or party
who is corrupt. The rationale being, since all BN candidates
are corrupt, the vote should go to PAS. In one small ceramah
at Kuala Terengganu, a local PAS leader campaigning for PAS
Vice President Mohamed Sabu, also stated that although they
hated Mahathir, they could still tolerate him but not PM
Abdullah whom they claim was "stupid." PAS also accused BN
of stealing the people's money and added that Terengganu does
not need any more development that only benefits the rich.


7. (SBU) BN supporters on the other hand were generally happy
with the PM and developments in Terengganu. A MCA party
worker told us that the people should give the PM at least
two terms before judging his administration but "the
uneducated folks in Terengganu want to see results in a day."
Another BN supporter shared her experience on how PAS
supporters had openly questioned her at the local market for
supporting the BN and gave her a "religious lecture" on why
she should be supporting PAS. Due to these incidents, BN
supporters told us that they would normally pretend to agree
with PAS whenever they are approached by the Opposition party
to avoid a lecture, and because of "the fear of a mishap from
Allah" (as PAS supporters would claim if someone did not
support the party).


Penang
--------------


8. (SBU) On March 6, two days before the election, we met DAP
candidate Liew Chin Tong and asked if he felt confident. He
replied that he felt confident in himself, but still not sure
if the voters would turn out. Nevertheless, the DAP
headquarters and PKR operations center we visited were
buzzing with people and activity. Groups of people were
chatting outside, and seemed charged up and excited. A steady
stream of people were coming and going, while candidates Liew
Chin Tong and Jason Ong Khan Lee (PKR) were among the group
of workers greeting people and handing out literature.


9. (SBU) On March 7, at the People's Movement Party
(Gerakan) headquarters, a volunteer told us that he felt like
it was hopeless, and that he felt very discouraged. We
visited Barisan Nasional's MCA headquarters and Gerakan
headquarters and both were relatively quiet and empty. In
fact MCA's office was so quiet that we initially thought it
was closed. We tried calling one of the Gerakan election
centers for directions to a ceramah, and no one answered.
When we inquired about ceramahs at the MCA headquarters, a
volunteer suggested that we attend the DAP ceramah instead.

Issues of importance to Penang voters
--------------

KUALA LUMP 00000182 003 OF 005




10. (SBU) From Chinese and Indians, most comments were about
the economy, high prices, and declining standard of living.
Several Chinese mentioned that huge schools are being built
for Malays in areas where there are few Malays, and the
Chinese are packed into tiny schools. There is anger on this
point and on other race-related inequities. They said that
they cannot demand higher wages from the multi-nationals or
the companies will be driven out of Malaysia. People are fed
up that the government is not keeping costs down. Many
Chinese and Indians said that they are poor, and the
government does not help them.


11. (SBU) We attended several ceramahs in the state, but
without exception, only DAP and PKR were able to draw a
crowd. On March 6, we went to a DAP ceramah that drew some
50,000 people. Speakers included Karpal Singh, Lim Guan Eng,
and Lim Kit Siang among others. They spoke a mix of Hokkien,
Mandarin, English, and Malay; all speakers using at least two
languages and some using four. The crowd's reaction to Lim
Guan Eng stood out the most. He first approached while
someone else was speaking. The crowd which had been sitting
on the grass stood and chanted his name, cheering wildly. He
didn't come up on stage then, but came back later. Again the
crowd stood, with deafening chanting and cheering greeted his
entrance. When he finally spoke, he was given a rock-star
reception, again with deafening cheers to his words.
Although others
received enthusiastic receptions, the standing, cheering and
roaring applause were reserved for Lim Guan Eng.


12. (SBU) In contrast, we attended a BN ceramah in Jelutong
for Gerakan candidate Thor Teong Gee. There were only about
100 people in attendance, and they milled around and chatted
while he spoke. The crowd was completely ethnic Malay and
Dr. Thor spoke Bahasa. BN provided food and drinks, but
still there were many empty chairs. Dr. Thor was not very
animated, and after he finished his 30-minute speech he left
immediately. BN later hosted several other speakers, and
though the crowd fluctuated in size, there were at most only
200 people at its height.


Kedah
--------------


13. (SBU) Upon arriving in Alor Star, the capital of Kedah,
we stopped at the UMNO headquarters and spoke with a worker.
The office was empty except for him and one other, and they
were entirely at a loss when asked about ceramah schedules.
They said another office took care of that, and searched for
the phone number of someone to call. When we called, we only
got an error message. With little support from the party we
decided to speak with locals about the campaign. We spoke
with a Chinese Malaysian vendor at a printing shop with large
a Gerakan banner posted above the entrance. He said that a
large number of BN banners around Alor Star were not
necessarily representative of widespread support, and
estimated the town at 60-40 pro-BN. He himself was not sure
whom he would vote for and seemed to weigh some of the same
things that media had been harping on -- making votes "count"
by voting for BN vs. voting for the opposition as a way to
signal displeasure at the current government.


14. (SBU) As we drove through the rural areas of the state we
saw considerably more PAS banners, which increased markedly
as we made our way into the small town centers. The owner of
a local shop confirmed that PAS would be holding 22 ceramahs
across the state every night of the campaign. When talking
about his own district of Pendang, he said the race was "hot"
between PAS and UMNO but guessed it 50-50 that either side
would win. Not surprisingly for this conservative area, very
few women were seen to be involved in the political process,
and the people we spoke to seemed generally suspicious and
uncomfortable when an American woman asked questions about
the elections. Although it was considered a "hot" race,
there was little outward political activity to suggest active
mobilization or participation on either side. In general, it
was very quiet for 2 days before polling, and we surmised
that most voters had long since made up their minds about
which party to vote for.


15. (SBU) On the last day of campaigning we happened upon
one of the campaign offices of PKR candidate Gobalakrishnan
(a recent Embassy IVP alumnus) in Padang Serai. One of the

KUALA LUMP 00000182 004 OF 005


campaign's biggest concerns was about polling-day
shenanigans, including phantom voters. The indelible ink
issue was brought up constantly, as evidence that the
government was intent on ensuring that voting would not be
fair while at the same time blaming others for it. Gobal
described how the local Indians were very angry with
Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) President Sammy Vellu, so
much so that when Samy came to the town last week to support
the BN candidate he did not inform the Indian community.
When word got out, according to Gobal, there was a
spontaneous protest demonstration by 10,000 people that
clogged roads and brought out the police. Police arrested
the PKR candidate's son, claiming his stereo speakers were
too loud, then told Gobal they would release him if Gobal
told the crowd to disperse. Gobal proudly said that he told
them to keep his son locked up. The campaign figured their
chances of success were about 50-50, but in the end won by
almost 12,000 votes and the opposition took the state.


Kelantan
--------------


16. (SBU) In the battle of banners, Kelantan was the Maginot
Line of Malaysia where the green banners of PAS buttressed
the navy blue of Barisan Nasional at every corner. Yet
despite the constant flag warfare, and despite repeated
visits earlier in the campaign by the Prime Minister and
Deputy Prime Minister, little else was observed that would
indicate BN was truly prepared to fight. In the final days
of the campaign, while PAS held street rallies (ceramahs) and
mass prayers at the local stadium in Kota Bahru, BN
candidates quietly visited their neighbors and limited their
campaigns to "walk-a-bouts." On March 6, just two nights
before the election, we were informed by a sparsely staffed
campaign headquarters that UMNO would not be holding any
ceramahs or public events before the elections.


17. (SBU) Nevertheless, PAS candidates continued to campaign
hard throughout the state and in the capital city. Former
State Assembly Speaker and parliamentary candidate Wan Rahim
Wan Abdullah invited us to attend a PAS ceramah in a Chinese
village on the outskirts of Kota Bahru, "to get a real
feeling for the issues facing Kelantan." Upon arriving, we
quickly noticed that the only Muslims at the ceramah were the
candidate and his family. Yet, a crowd of some 200 Chinese
voters bought food from local hawkers and listened for hours
as Hokkien speakers explained why even non-Muslims should
support PAS over Barisan Nasional. The crowd laughed and
cheered as the speakers disparaged the BN national
government. As one attendee explained, "PAS cleaned up our
state. So you want to gamble or go to a night club. . .go to
Thailand. It's not far. Some of us go, but we don't need
the problems those things bring us here."


18. (SBU) We spent the final day of campaigning in Bachok,
the hotly contested seat of Deputy Finance Minister Dr. Awang
Adek Hussin and his challenger PAS Deputy President
Nasharuddin Mat Isa. BN supporters confirmed that the
coalition had taken the same approach throughout the campaign
and limited most of their campaigning to small group
meetings, door-to-door encounters, and relied heavily on the
personal reputation of the candidate. We met briefly with
Awang, and he expressed optimism of retaining his
parliamentary seat, but less confident of winning the state
seat which would designate him the coalition's choice for
Chief Minister. PAS supporters remained confident of
sweeping the parliamentary and state assembly elections in
the district and held ceramahs nightly even to the last day
of campaigning.


19. (SBU) Election Day in Kota Bahru remained calm and voters
flowed to the polls in steady streams throughout the day.
There was a true feeling of excitement in the air as both PAS
and BN "pondok panas" workers greeted arriving voters with
enthusiasm and attention. But by the end of the day, BN
workers confided that they had hoped for a better turn out.
They estimated that turn-out was around 70 percent, and they
had hoped for 80 percent to ensure a BN victory. In the end
they were right, and PAS and PKR candidates handily defeated
BN in both state and parliamentary elections across Kelantan.

Sabah
--------------


KUALA LUMP 00000182 005 OF 005



20. (SBU) Prior to election day in Sabah, there was sentiment
expressed both in news articles and even by some supporters
within the BN's Sabah People's Progressive Party (SAPP) that
some Barisan seats were likely to be lost in the general
election, with the Democratic Action Party (DAP) expected to
reap the benefit of any BN losses. Journalists speculated in
the run-up to Election Day that the areas with Chinese voter
majorities were being targeted by opposition parties such as
the People's Justice Party (PKR) and DAP.


21. (SBU) When the voting was done and the ballots were
counted, DAP managed wins only in the Kota Kinabalu and Sri
Tanjung districts. Just days before the election, however,
many BN candidates confided that they were not sure how well
the BN would perform in urban areas, and that they expected
to lose more seats. Still, one BN party activist we
interviewed made the interesting comment that Chinese voters
in Sabah become anxious when they see demonstrations leading
to crackdowns such as those taking place in the peninsula
where Bersih and Hindraf demonstrations came to grief. He
noted that Chinese in East Malaysia would, in order to avoid
strife, rather stay away from supporting parties like PKR in
the elections and prefer instead to support moderate mainline
groups like the SAPP who are already aligned to folks in
power.


22. (SBU) During the period of observations, we saw no buses
being used to transport potential voters. However, at one
site we could overhear an UMNO worker on his cell phone
requesting that transportation (including buses) be provided
to bring voters to the station. We observed an interesting
situation when a youthful voter exited from the polling area
and asked one of the uniformed UMNO party workers what he
should do now. Paraphrasing, she told him "not now" but to
"come to the office tomorrow."

KEITH