MALAYSIA'S ELECTION: CRUNCHING NUMBERS FOR BN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUALA LUMPUR 000163

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR EAP/MTS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MY
SUBJECT: MALAYSIA'S ELECTION: CRUNCHING NUMBERS FOR BN

REF: KUALA LUMPUR 160 - ELECTION SHOCK

Classified By: Political Section Chief Mark D. Clark
for reasons 1.4 (b, d).


1. (SBU) Summary: Malaysia's dramatic March 8 election
setback for Prime Minister Abdullah and his National Front
(BN) coalition resulted not only in the loss of four
additional state governments to the opposition (reftel),but
in a potentially fundamental shift of power in the ruling
coalition towards East Malaysia. On the peninsula, the
National Front was out-polled by the opposition by 20,000
votes, but in East Malaysia, the National Front out-polled
the opposition by a two-one margin. In fact, it was BN's win
of 54 parliamentary seats in East Malaysia that allowed the
coalition to reach a simple majority and form the new
government. The dismal performances of the National Front's
peninsula-based parties, especially the Malaysian Chinese
Association (MCA),People's Movement Party (Gerakan) and
Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC),meant three Sarawak-based
parties could gain unprecedented influence in the coalition.
Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi now faces a dearth of Chinese
and Indian coalition parliamentarians to fill traditional
cabinet positions, and is expected to fill several vacancies
with East Malaysians. End Summary.

Restructuring the National Front
--------------


2. (SBU) Stunning at first, the political upheaval of
Malaysia's March 8 national election is only now beginning to
sink in for the ruling National Front (Barisan Nasional or
BN) coalition as its support base shifts drastically towards
East Malaysia. The 12th General Election resulted, not only
in the loss of four state governments to the opposition
(reftel),but in a potentially fundamental shift of power in
the ruling coalition. Nationwide, BN polled 50.1 percent of
the popular vote in the parliamentary elections while the
opposition polled only 46.3 percent, but political reality
lies in the details. On the peninsula, BN was actually out
polled by the opposition, capturing only 3.43 million votes
to the opposition's 3.45 million votes. It was in East
Malaysia, traditionally a political backwater, that the
National Front captured 653,623 votes to the opposition's
327,040 votes, out polling the opposition 61.2 percent to
30.6 percent of the electorate. In fact, it was BN's win of
54 parliamentary seats in East Malaysia that allowed the
coalition to reach a simple majority and form the new
government.


3. (SBU) With the meteoric rise of opposition representation
in Parliament comes a corresponding rise in East Malaysia's
importance to the ruling coalition, at least in terms of the
numbers. When the 12th Parliament sits, BN's five largest
component parties will be: UMNO with 79 seats; MCA with 15
seats; United Sarawak Native Inheritance Party (PBB) with 14
seats; Sarawak United People's Party (SUPP) with six seats;
and Sarawak People's Party (Parti Rakyak Sarawak or PRS) with
six seats. The 12th Parliament will see both Gerakan and MIC
fall to minor party status as both faced near destruction at
the 2008 polls (reftel). It is only their historical
significance to the coalition that may result in their
disproportionate representation in the government.


4. (SBU) Discontent in Malaysia's Chinese and Indian
communities decimated their representation in the ruling
coalition and ultimately threatens their long term influence
in a BN-led government. Gerakan's defeat in Penang, Perak
and Selangor left the once influential party with only two
elected parliamentarians. Likewise, MIC's bungling of the
Hindraf issue and failure to reinvent itself from its own
specter of corruption meant MIC could only hang on to three
seats in the 2008 parliamentary elections. Together, MIC and
Gerakan did not capture enough seats to match either SUPP or
PRS, the two new comers from East Malaysia to the Barisan
Nasional top five. MCA, MIC and Gerakan all face a crisis of
leadership as the parties struggle with electoral defeats and
dwindling influence in the coalition.


9. (SBU) While the shift in Chinese and Indian votes was
largely predicted, large shifts in the Malay vote shocked the
nation and effected the most influential change in the polls.
Dominant coalition partner UMNO lost 28 percent of its
parliamentary seats, with all losses occurring on the
peninsula. We note that UMNO's decline in the polls on the
peninsula was mitigated by the party's strength in Sabah. In
Sabah, UMNO won every parliamentary seat it contested,

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pulling in 13 of their 79 total seats in Parliament. While
UMNO does not have a political presence in Sarawak, there is
no minimizing the importance East Malaysia has played in
preserving the party's influence on a national scale.

Balancing race in the new cabinet
--------------


5. (SBU) As Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi now prepares to
name his new cabinet, the change in demographics among BN's
component parties weighs heavily. First among his concerns
will be the dearth of Chinese parliamentarians eligible to
hold cabinet office. In his cabinet from the outgoing
Parliament, MCA held 4 ministerial posts, 9 deputy minister
posts, and 4 parliamentary secretaries. Having captured only
15 seats in the new parliament, MCA falls two short of
filling all the positions ordinarily allotted to the party.
Likewise, Gerakan last held one ministerial post, 3 deputy
minister positions, and 2 parliamentary secretaries. With
only two parliamentarians elected to the 12th Parliament,
Gerakan, too, does not have enough elected representatives to
fill all their traditional posts. Faring no better, MIC's
three elected parliamentarians are insufficient to fill the
one minister, 3 deputy minister and 2 parliamentary secretary
posts it has traditionally held.

Appointing senators to balance the equation
--------------


6. (SBU) Despite their low level of representation in
Parliament, PM Abdullah has not abandoned the coalition's
historical stalwarts. Notwithstanding his pre-election
threats that the Chinese and Indian communities would lose
their influence in the government, he subsequently has
promised publicly that MIC, MCA and Gerakan will still have a
role in the government. In order to fulfill these promises,
Abdullah likely will have to nominate new senators from the
losing parties or substantially reduce their overall
representation in the cabinet. While it is not unusual for
senators to fill cabinet positions, they normally constitute
a very small percentage of the cabinet.

Balancing the cabinet with East Malaysians
--------------


7. (SBU) It remains to be seen if the Sarawakian parties
will be granted a voice proportionate to their new position
in the coalition. In the 11th Parliament, PBB held only one
ministerial post and one deputy minister position; SUPP had
one minister, one deputy minister and one parliamentary
secretary; and PRS had only one deputy minister. Now, as the

SIPDIS
third largest party in the coalition, PBB's position in the
government should increase exponentially, but longstanding
bias against East Malaysia could diminish the opportunities
of Sarawakian parties to assume leadership roles in the
government.

Comment
--------------


8. (C) BN's unprecedented setback at the polls has changed
the ruling coalition's component party profile, making
traditional partners MCA and MIC less critical and bringing
players from East Malaysia to the fore. Abdullah now faces
the unenviable position of trying to balance old influence
with new. At risk of further alienating Malaysia's Chinese
and Indian communities, MCA, MIC and Gerakan must be given
positions of authority and influence in the new government,
but ignoring the strength and contribution of the East
Malaysian parties may generate discontent among the parties
that saved BN's majority control over the national
government. We expect to see Abdullah balance these
competing forces by appointing more East Malaysians to the
government but preserving many of the traditional portfolios
for BN's founding members. To significantly diminish Chinese
and Indian appointments in the government would risk forever
surrendering those communities to the opposition, and that is
a risk Abdullah is very unlikely to take.
KEITH