NORTHEAST INDIA DOES NOT FAVOR CONGRESS, LEFT'S STRENGTH

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KOLKATA 000088

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL IN
SUBJECT: NORTHEAST INDIA DOES NOT FAVOR CONGRESS, LEFT'S STRENGTH
REINFORCED

REF: KOLKATA 72, 80, 81


1. (SBU) Summary: In the Northeast Indian state of Meghalaya,
the incumbent Congress-led government was again sworn in despite
its lack of majority in the state legislature. In neighboring
Nagaland, the Democratic Alliance of Nagaland (DAN),a BJP
coalition, which was ousted in January when the UPA placed the
state under Central Rule, won a majority. In Tripura, the Left
Front inflicted a crushing defeat on the Congress for the fourth
consecutive time. Although the three Northeast states are
small, the Congress Party's electoral debacle in the region is a
warning that early general elections may not work in its favor.
The Left leadership's recent statements on the possible
formation of a third front may find some credence with the Left,
proving that it retains its dominance in its eastern India
strongholds. End Summary.

Meghalaya


2. (U) On March 10, the Congress under D.D. Lapang formed a
government in Meghalaya without a majority and without the
confirmed support of regional parties. With only 25 legislators
in a legislature of 60, Lapang has 10 days to prove his
majority. Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leader, former
Parliament Speaker and Meghalaya political heavyweight P.A.
Sangma, who heads a rival coalition with 31 legislators strongly
protested the development. He had informed Governor S.S. Sidhu
of the strength of his coalition, but the Governor decided that
Sangma's coalition did not constitute a pre-poll alliance and
therefore did not deserve precedence over the single-largest
vote- getter, Congress. Sangma said he will file a petition
with the India Supreme Court to challenge the decision.


3. (U) The NCP and the regional parties - United Democratic
Party (UDP),Hill State People's Democratic Party (HSPDP),Khun
Hynniewtrep National Awakening Movement (KHNAM),BJP and two
independents have now formed the Meghalaya Progressive Alliance.
Results for 59 seats have been announced: NCP(15),UDP(11),
HSPDP(2),and KHNAM(1). The BJP won one seat and Independents
won four.

Nagaland


4. (U) Despite Congress' efforts to undermine the incumbent
Democratic Alliance of Nagaland (DAN) through the pre-election
imposition of President's Rule, DAN and its BJP ally emerged as
the front-runner to form the next Nagaland government. Of the
57 results announced so far for seats in the 60-member Assembly,
the Nagaland People's Front (NPF),which heads the DAN, won 25
spots while Congress won 22. The NCP and BJP secured two seats
each. Six independents also won from their respective
constituencies.

Tripura


5. (U) On March 10, the Left Front government was sworn into
government for the fourth consecutive time. The Left Front won
a total of 49 seats in the 60 member assembly -- CPM(46),
RSP(2),and CPI(1). The opposition Congress fared poorly (10)
and its partner Indigenous Nationalist Party of Tripura (INPT)
managed a single seat. The INPT is the political arm of the
tribal militant National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT).
CPM leaders hailed the Left Front's victory, and said that the
verdict was a lesson to the Congress for trying to divide the
state into tribals and non-tribals (Tripura's population is 30
per cent tribal and 70 per cent Bengali).


6. (SBU) Comment: With a crushing defeat in Tripura and
lackluster performances in Nagaland and in Meghalaya where it
did not get a clear majority, the Congress failed in its once
traditional political base among the Northeast Indian states.
This disappointing performance follows thumping defeats the
Congress suffered in Gujarat and Himachal last December. The
Northeast losses must be especially disheartening for the
Congress, which had hoped to boost party morale with some "small
wins" on its home turf. These losses will no doubt factor into
the Congress High Command's decision on the timing of a general
election. Clearly, the Congress Party is stumbling into its
final year in office floundering and enfeebled. Whether
national elections are early or on schedule in May 2009, it is
apparent the Congress Party needs some major refurbishment if it
is to remain competitive. Its latest strategy appears to be to
ride the coat-tails of the super-populist "please-all" budget

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that it unveiled on the eve of the polls in the Northeast. The
strategy did not work in the Northeast, thus supporting the view
of many analysts who believe that the Indian voter is too savvy
and sophisticated to be taken in by such cynical election-time
pandering.


7. (SBU) The Left Front's fourth consecutive victory in Tripura
is a morale booster for the Left, albeit a small one. Under
attack from all quarters for the violent land acquisition
battles in West Bengal, the Left Front has once again shown that
it remains secure in its own strongholds. The Left leadership's
recent statements on the possible formation of a "third
alternative" may gain some credence among moderate Left
supporters following its Tripura victory, but the Left still
needs to define this alternative more clearly to give it a
chance at the national level.
JARDINE