Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08KOLKATA36
2008-01-30 05:46:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Consulate Kolkata
Cable title:  

SCENESETTER FOR UPCOMING ELECTIONS IN THREE NORTHEAST

Tags:  PGOV PREL IN 
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KOLKATA 000036 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL IN
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR UPCOMING ELECTIONS IN THREE NORTHEAST
STATES

REF: KOLKATA 1

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KOLKATA 000036

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL IN
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR UPCOMING ELECTIONS IN THREE NORTHEAST
STATES

REF: KOLKATA 1


1. (U) Summary: Nagaland, Tripura and Meghalaya - all states
in Northeast India - are scheduled for state assembly elections
in February on completion of their 5-year terms. Following its
defeat in the Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections,
the Congress Party (Congress) will try to retain/recapture its
traditional strongholds in Northeast India. Of the three
states, Congress is currently in power only in Meghalaya
although of the three major national parties (Congress, Bhartiya
Janata Party (BJP),and Communist Party of India - Marxist (CPM)
Congress traditionally has the widest network in the NE region.
Since 2003, Nagaland has been ruled by the BJP-backed Democratic
Alliance of Nagaland (DAN) until the recent imposition of
President's Rule on January 3. Tripura has been under the
CPM-led Left Front for three consecutive terms since 1993. End
Summary.

--------------
Meghalaya: Congress Relies on Local Political Allies
--------------


2. (U) In 2003, the Congress-led Meghalaya Democratic Alliance
(MDA) earned a convincing majority in the assembly elections.
The Congress won 22 seats, the United Democratic Party (UDP) 9,
the Meghalaya Democratic Party (MDP) 4, Khun Hyniewtrep National
Awakening Movement (KHNAM) 2 and Independents 3. The only
significant opposition party, the Nationalist Congress Party
(NCP),was led by former Lok Sabha Speaker P.A. Sangma and won
14 seats with others winning 6 seats. Meghalaya has a history
of political instability -- between 1998 and the last assembly
elections in 2003, Meghalaya had six governments and four chief
ministers. Congress's D.D. Lapang became Chief Minister in
March 2003 but owing to factionalism within the party, he was
replaced by J.D. Rymbai in June 2006. In March 2007, Lapang
became Chief Minister again.


3. (U) Politics in Meghalya is fractured, with no strong
tradition of party loyalty. Politicians are currently focused
on securing party tickets for the election. If denied, they
will quickly look to switch allegiances and join other parties
willing to accommodate them. Former Chief Minister Rymbai, for
example, left the Congress to join the UDP. In this
environment, the Congress will find it difficult to get an
absolute majority. The state's smaller parties will play a

crucial role in the numbers game that will determine the nature
of a new ruling coalition. Alliances will be formed after
election results are announced. In the Garo Hills area
(dominated by ethnic Garos) the main contest will be between
Sangma's NCP and the Congress. In the Khasi Hills, Congress
will compete with other regional parties.

--------------
Tripura: Left Bastion
--------------


4. (U) In Tripura, the Left Front's influence has increased
with each election since 1993. In 2003, the Left won 41 of the
60 assembly seats (CPM - 38, Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP)
- 2, CPI - 1.). The CPM is still going strong, although its
smaller partner, the Forward Bloc, has announced it will contest
the elections on its own and not as part of the Left Front.


5. (U) The Congress, in alliance with the Indigenous
Nationalist Party of Tripura (INPT),won 19. The INPT is
political organization representing the interests of the
insurgent group National Liberation Front of Tripura (NLFT).
The Congress has once again forged an alliance with the INPT for
these elections. However, factionalism within the Congress is
now at its worst and renders it prospects bleak, especially when
contrasted with the Left's solidarity.

--------------
Nagaland: Defections to Congress
--------------


6. (U) Prior to President's Rule being imposed in January 2007
(reftel),Nagaland's DAN coalition government consisted of the
Nagaland People's Front (19),BJP (7),Janta Dal - United (3),
Samata Party (1),National Democratic Movement (3) and
Independents (4). The Congress was the single largest party
with 21 seats in the 60 member assembly. Desperate in their
bid to regain power in Nagaland, Congress legislators campaigned
in New Delhi and finally succeeded in getting the United

KOLKATA 00000036 002 OF 002


Progressive Alliance government to impose Central rule in the
state "to facilitate free and fair elections," which they
believe would not be possible under DAN governance. At least 12
legislators from DAN have defected to Congress. In the 2003
polls, the National Socialist Council of Nagalim - Isak Muivah
(NSCN-IM) had supported DAN because the group considered
Congress leader S.C. Jamir to be its arch enemy. However, this
time Jamir may not contest (although his son is a likely
candidate),which may reduce the NSCN-IM hostility towards the
Congress.


7. (U) A "third front" made up of parties like the RJD, JD(U)
and BSP is emerging in Nagaland as elections approach. Seeing
the NPF and BJP on the one hand, and Congress on the other, the
third front leaders hope to win enough seats to make their
participation in government formation crucial.

--------------
Playing UPA's Look East Policy
--------------


8. (U) Congress party leaders in New Delhi are making attempts
to woo Northeastern voters by highlighting the region's benefits
from the GOI's "Look East Policy" through regional conferences
organized by MEA in recent months. On January 11, the GOI
organized a Northeast Investors Summit in Guwahati, Assam,
bringing together state representatives from the region.
Highlighting economic development is not without its drawbacks,
however. Congress support for uranium mining in Meghalaya has
met with opposition from the public and civil society
organizations.


9. (U) Comment: Each of the three Northeastern states have
their own unique local factors that will determine the electoral
outcome. Election dates have been set for February 23-March 3,
but campaigns and alliances are still uncertain. Promises of
economic development have been the norm in the past, and the
electoral pattern in the economically backward Northeast is to
vote in favor of the party or alliance ruling at the Center to
ensure the continued flow of funds into the state coffers.
Although this factor may help the Congress in Nagaland, it
probably will not in Tripura, where the CPM's strength is still
overwhelming. In Meghalaya, the number of parties vying for
power indicates that many backroom agreements will be necessary
to stitch together a coalition government.
JARDINE