JHARKHAND'S PARLIAMENTARY SEATS ARE UP FOR GRABS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KOLKATA 000295

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV SOCI IN
SUBJECT: JHARKHAND'S PARLIAMENTARY SEATS ARE UP FOR GRABS

REF: KOLKATA 229

KOLKATA 00000295 001.2 OF 002



1. (SBU) Summary: On October 14-16, CG and New Delhi PolCouns
visited the mineral-rich state of Jharkhand, India's newest
state. With six governments in the last eight years, newly
installed Chief Minister (CM) Shibu Soren of Jharkhand Mukti
Morcha (JMM) leads a fragile United Progressive Alliance (UPA)
coalition government supported by the Indian National Congress
(INC),Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and independent legislators
(MLAs). Jharkhand is rich in resources but is plagued by
political instability and the lack of leadership. Promised
private sector industrial projects are dormant. Jharkhand will
soon hold the state's first Panchayat (rural local governance)
elections. JMM will most likely lose seats in the upcoming
Parliamentary elections, giving the Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) an opportunity to
pick up seats this time around. End summary.

A Rich State in Decline


2. (SBU) Despite having 40 per cent of India's mineral wealth,
India's newest state of Jharkhand has been unable to translate
this wealth into economic growth. Political and business
contacts told CG and PolCouns during a recent visit to the state
that infrastructure and the overall state of the economy has
been declining since the state's inception in 2000. They blame
endemic corruption and poor leadership for this decline. In
past eight years, the state has had six state governments with
four Chief Ministers. Contacts explained that the instability
in government has encouraged politicians to siphon off as much
money as they can from government coffers because they will soon
be voted out of office. While the state government has signed
over 65 MOUs with private companies in the last three years,
primarily in the mining and steel industries, none of these are
moving forward due to the political instability.

Panchayat Elections


3. (SBU) Even though Article 243 of the Indian Constitution
requires states to regularly hold Panchayat elections, they have
never been held in Jharkhand. In 2005, the Jharkhand High Court
directed the state government to hold Panchayat elections and
the state Election Commission issued an election notification.
These elections were cancelled when the same High Court struck
down key provisions of Jharkhand's Panchayat Raj Act regarding
reservations for scheduled castes and tribes. A local NGO filed
a Public Interest Litigation case in the Indian Supreme Court
challenging the High Court's decision. A senior Jharkhand
government official told CG and Poloff that he expects that in
the next three to four months the Supreme Court will order the
state to hold Panchayat elections. He could not predict whether
they would be held before or after Parliamentary elections, but
predicted it would be around the same time period.

Parliamentary Election


4. (SBU) Jharkhand's political leaders appear to be more focused
on the upcoming Parliamentary elections than the Panchayat
elections. During CG and PolCouns's visit, BJP leader L.K.
Advani held his second public meeting in Jharkhand this month,
which according to security contacts drew 30,000 supporters.
While BJP currently has no Parliamentary seats, BJP opposition
leader and former Chief Minister Arjun Munda told CG and
PolCouns that BJP will win nine out of Jharkhand's 14
Parliamentary seats. He cited inflation and Jharkhand's history
of anti-incumbency as factors favoring a BJP win.


5. (SBU) The INC currently has six Parliamentary seats and JMM
has four seats. While JMM was a key regional party that helped
UPA win the July 22 no confidence vote, INC has so far given
Soren only the CM position as a reward. A knowledgeable INC
state leader told CG and PolCouns that the INC is pressuring
Soren to show immediate success as Chief Minister in order to
maintain INC support for JMM. He said that the UPA government
at the Center will not give CM Soren anything more (e.g. Cabinet
Ministries) until he proves in the elections that he can win
seats for JMM and cooperates with UPA.


6. (SBU) Soren appears to be hedging his bets between BJP and
INC, telling CG and PolCouns that in a democratic country such
as India political alignments can change. Contacts speculate
that Soren's political future is dependent on the results of
Parliamentary elections. Soren was named Chief Minister only
with support from INC, which appears to have convinced the
independent parties in the state assembly to back Soren for now.
If the INC withdraws its support for Soren, the independents
may call for a no confidence vote, causing the government to
fall. If this happens, the State Assembly election, scheduled
for March 2010, may be held soon after the Parliamentary

KOLKATA 00000295 002.2 OF 002


elections. It is unlikely that the INC will withdraw its
support for Soren before Parliamentary elections unless he
clearly sides with BJP.

Jharkhand's Forgotten Muslims


7. (SBU) According to the 2001 census, Muslims comprise 13.8
percent of Jharkhand's population of 26 million. Muslim
community leaders estimated the percentage to be much higher at
30 percent. (Note: While 13.8 percent most likely
underestimates the number of Muslims in Jharkhand, 30 percent
appears to be an exaggeration. End note). CG and PolCouns met
with approximately 30 members of the Muslim community, including
NGO staff, religious leaders and students. The group was angry
and suspicious, complaining that the government of Jharkhand had
provided no support for education and health care. They claimed
that they were unable to translate their numbers into political
influence because constituencies with large numbers of Muslims
were set aside for scheduled castes and tribes. While Muslims
have traditionally voted against the BJP-led National Democratic
Alliance (NDA),the ones we spoke to did not appear to strongly
support any party.

Comment


8. (SBU) While the BJP-led NDA does not currently have any of
Jharkhand's Parliamentary seats, the state's history of
anti-incumbency and the lack of current leadership in the state
makes it likely that BJP and their allies will win a number of
seats this time around. If JMM loses seats, neither UPA nor NDA
will need Soren's support and his government will probably fall,
with state assembly elections probably being moved forward. It
is unclear when the Panchayat elections will be held, but if
they take place before Parliamentary elections, they will be a
good indicator of what to expect on the national level. End
comment.
PAYNE