COMMUNISTS AGAIN SUFFER LOSSES IN WEST BENGAL'S LOCAL

UNCLAS KOLKATA 000198

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI IN
SUBJECT: COMMUNISTS AGAIN SUFFER LOSSES IN WEST BENGAL'S LOCAL
ELECTIONS AND A WEAKENING OF THEIR POLITICAL BASE

REF: KOLKATA 160


1. (SBU) Summary: On June 29, the Communist Party of
India-Marxist (CPM) experienced another serious electoral loss
in local elections, with the results from the local, municipal
elections. This latest setback, follows bad results in the May
panchayat (local government) polls (reftel). Of the 13
municipal bodies that went to polls in the last week, CPM-led
Left Front won just 4 to the opposition's 8 victories (one
municipality was won by the Forward Bloc). The lead opposition
party, Trinamul Congress, wrested 3 municipalities - Guskara,
Habra and Midnapore -- directly from the Left, while the
Congress captured one -- Dalkhola. In the same 13
constituencies in 2003, the Left had won 9 and the opposition 4.
This weakening of the Left's political position in its key West
Bengal bastion is significant as it coming at the same that the
CPM's national leadership in New Delhi is threatening to bring
down the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government over the
Indo-U.S. civil nuclear agreement and to force early national
parliamentary elections. West Bengal CPM leadership is
reportedly unhappy with the prospect of early national
elections, while they continue to face significant losses in
local elections. End Summary.


2. (SUB) West Bengal has a total of 126 municipal bodies
governing urban and semi-urban areas. Elections are held for
these bodies every five years. In the 13 municipalities holding
the latest round of elections, only the CPM lost municipal
governments from their control, losing four. The other parties
Trinamul Congress, Congress and even the smaller Left allies
Forward Bloc (FB) and Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP)
retained the municipal governments that they previously held or
increased their control. CPM lost to the opposition in
districts ranging from North Dinajpur (North Bengal) to Burdwan
(Central) and North 24 Parganas (South Bengal).


3. (SBU) Although the results occurred in only 13 municipal
areas, they are a good indication of public opinion in different
regions of West Bengal. While the issue of land acquisition for
industry may have driven rural voters away from the Left as
evident in the May panchayat polls, Left leaders in the state
were shocked by the results in urban and semi-urban areas.
These latest results are believed to reflect reaction to the
CPM's overall record of poor governance, to include weak
education, health care, food distribution and other urban public
services.


4. (SBU) The municipal elections setback comes at a bad time
for the CPM as at the national level, General Secretary Prakash
Karat is threatening to bring down the UPA government should the
Congress Party go forward with the Indo-U.S. civil nuclear deal.
The last thing that West Bengal's Left leaders now want is
early parliamentary elections if the UPA loses its majority. In
2004, the Left had won 35 of West Bengal's 42 parliamentary
seats. At this point, the leaders fear a loss of more than a
dozen seats in the parliament's lower house Lok Sabha.
According to several contacts with good access to the state CPM
leadership, many leaders are upset with Karat's intransigence
over the civil-nuclear deal. A well-placed advisor to Chief
Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, told ConGen that rumors have
been circulating that there was a small chance of Karat's ouster
by the WB CPM leadership, though the advisor said that "it was
no more than a 10 percent chance." While unlikely that Karat
would be pushed out, the mere fact that the rumors exist
reflects a significant tension within the CPM and a growing
internal lobby against early parliamentary elections.

JARDINE