VILLAGE ELECTIONS - THE FOUNDATION OF LEFT POWER IN WEST

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KOLKATA 000141

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL IN
SUBJECT: VILLAGE ELECTIONS - THE FOUNDATION OF LEFT POWER IN WEST
BENGAL

REF: A) KOLKATA 66, B) 07 KOLKATA 345


1. (U) Summary: "Panchayat" (rural local self-governance
bodies) elections in West Bengal are scheduled in three phases
in May. Violence between political supporters has flared in
parts of the state and has reignited in Nandigram which has seen
repeated classes between local villagers and Communist Party of
India - Marxist (CPM) supporters. The panchayat elections serve
as the bedrock of power for the CPM in West Bengal, and allow
the CPM and its Left Front partners to maintain a stranglehold
over the rural electorate. May 11, 14, and 18 are the scheduled
dates for the elections, and despite efforts to criticize the
CPM on its governance, West Bengal's Marxists should once again
win resoundingly. End Summary


2. (U) West Bengal's State Election Board announced the
panchayat election dates, which are assigned by region. May 11
is the date for polling in the state's south and west districts
of East Midnapore, West Midnapore, Bankura, Purulia and Burdwan.
The central districts of Nadia, North 24-Parganas, South
24-Parganas, Howrah and Hooghly will vote on May 14, and the
northern areas of Cooch Behar, Jalpaiguri, North Dinajpur, South
Dinajpur, Malda, Murshidabad and Birbhum vote on May 18. The
Darjeeling district in North Bengal is excluded from the
panchayat electoral process as it has a separate local
administrative arrangement and because of current instability
(reftel a). At the village level 41,513 Gram Panchayat seats
will be contested, while 8,798 seats at the block level
Panchayat Samiti and 748 seats at the district level Zilla
Parishad are up for grabs.


3. (U) Already violence has flared in parts of West Bengal
between political groups. On May 5, Nandigram was again the
scene of clashes between the local Bhumi Ucched Pratirodh
Committee (BUPC) and CPM supporters. In 2007 there were a
series of violent battles between the BUPC, which was seeking to
prevent the state's plans to acquire farmland for a Special
Economic Zone (SEZ) and the CPM, which sought to assert its
power in the area. In the past week, the GOWB removed eight
police camps from around Nandigram. The police camps had been
place since the last bout of violence in November 2007 to
maintain law and order. The state is now being accused by
opposition groups of pulling the police out to allow the CPM a
free hand in Nandigram. In one reported incident on May 5, CPM
supporters allegedly pulled a 35-year old woman out of her home
at gun-point, stripped, beat and raped her in front of her
children and husband. The CPM also forced the family and other
locals believed to be BUPC supporters to take part in a CPM
demonstration. In addition, on April 30, CPM supporters fought
with Trinamul Congress party loyalists in Cooch Behar, leaving
one Trinamul Congress worker dead and 30 people injured.


4. (U) After the last panchayat elections in 2003 the CPM and
Left Front held an absolute majority in all districts except
Malda and Murshidabad. In Malda both the Congress Party, and
the Trinamul Congress/Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) combine fared
well, while in Murshidabad the Congress won a majority. This
year, opposition party efforts to forge a "grand alliance" and
prevent a division of non-Left votes generally have not
materialized because of disputes over seat-sharing. The Muslim
JamiatUlemaeHind (JUH) leader Siddiqullah Chowdhury was a
potential Trinamul ally, for example, but the two parties could
not reach an accord. The Trinamul Congress was able to garner
the support of the leftist Socialist Unity Center of India
(SUCI) and some smaller parties, but this will have little
impact overall.


5. (U) Although at the national level the Congress Party
receives Left support to maintain the UPA coalition, it opposes
the Left Front in West Bengal, and has made some efforts to put
a dent in the CPM's control of the state. On April 28, Congress
President Sonia Gandhi addressed the rural public in Malda and
Murshidabad and attacked the CPM for the Nandigram violence last
year (reftel b). Seizing on current worries over food price
increases, Gandhi added that the state government should ensure
a properly functioning public distribution system and control
black marketeering. Interestingly, the BJP --a Trinamul
Congress ally at the national level -- decided to exempt West
Bengal from the BJP's all-India May 2 strike against inflation.
West Bengal BJP representatives said it would add to people's
woes as the state already "suffered" during a Trinamul strike on
April 21.


6. (U) Comment: Despite pockets of rural discontent over the
state government's policy of acquiring agricultural land for
industry, rising food prices, and compensation problems in
handling the avian influenza epidemic, the Left is again poised

KOLKATA 00000141 002 OF 002


for success at the polls. The Left's longstanding, extensive
network in West Bengal villages and heavy-handed control
contrasts starkly with the opposition's limited presence and
constant infighting. Although a smaller Left Front partner, the
Forward Bloc, had showed signs of wanting to break from the fold
in the past, it has been firmly dealt with by the dominant CPM,
leaving Left Front unity intact and its "poll machinery"
prepared for a resounding victory.
JARDINE