Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08KINGSTON409
2008-05-09 17:42:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kingston
Cable title:  

JAMAICA: VETERAN OPPOSITION PARTY ORGANIZER

Tags:  PREL PGOV ASEC SOCI PINR KHUM KCOR JM XL 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXYZ0001
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHKG #0409/01 1301742
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 091742Z MAY 08
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6310
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000409 

SIPDIS

STATE WHA/CAR FOR TILGHMAN INL/LP FOR BOZZOLO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEC SOCI PINR KHUM KCOR JM XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: VETERAN OPPOSITION PARTY ORGANIZER
PREDICTS GENERAL ELECTIONS IN JULY; PM GOLDING AWAITS
DECISION OF APPEALS COURT BEFORE DETERMINING COURSE

REF: A. KINGSTON 245 (191809Z MAR 08)


B. KINGSTON 364 (291558Z APR 08)

C. 07 KINGSTON 1336 (042044Z SEP 07)

D. KINGSTON 396 (061844Z MAY 08)

Classified By: Charge James T. Heg for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)

Summary and Analysis
--------------------

C O N F I D E N T I A L KINGSTON 000409

SIPDIS

STATE WHA/CAR FOR TILGHMAN INL/LP FOR BOZZOLO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEC SOCI PINR KHUM KCOR JM XL
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: VETERAN OPPOSITION PARTY ORGANIZER
PREDICTS GENERAL ELECTIONS IN JULY; PM GOLDING AWAITS
DECISION OF APPEALS COURT BEFORE DETERMINING COURSE

REF: A. KINGSTON 245 (191809Z MAR 08)


B. KINGSTON 364 (291558Z APR 08)

C. 07 KINGSTON 1336 (042044Z SEP 07)

D. KINGSTON 396 (061844Z MAY 08)

Classified By: Charge James T. Heg for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)

Summary and Analysis
--------------


1. (C) Dave Anderson, the former Special Advisor to
ex-Minister of National Security Peter Phillips and a veteran
People's National Party (PNP) political organizer:

(A) predicts that Prime Minister (PM) Bruce Golding will call
a snap general election in July, and that his ruling Jamaica
Labour Party (JLP) will pick up at least four more seats in
Parliament -- after which he will reshuffle his Cabinet, to
include naming a new Speaker of the House and Minster of
National Security;

(B) confirms widely held suspicions that the opposition
People's National Party (PNP) is in disarray (reftel A),and
believes that Phillips, the PNP's number two, will wait until
September or later to challenge Portia Simpson Miller (PSM)
for leadership of the party.

2.(C) Because Golding cannot afford further erosion of the
JLP's slim parliamentary majority, he effectively has drawn a
line in the sand: whether Jamaica faces a series of
by-elections in coming months or, alternatively, the PM calls
a snap general election, may well depend on an impending
ruling by the Appeals Court as to whether to award the
contested Portland Western seat to a PNP candidate without
(as directed by a lower court) holding a by-election (reftel
B). Over a private luncheon on May 8, UK High Commissioner
David Cresswell told Charge that senior JLP officials have
told him that PM Golding has not yet made a decision
regarding snap elections.
End Summary and Analysis.

Background on Anderson
--------------


3. (C) Anderson, who ran unsuccessfully for parliament as a

PNP candidate years ago, remains active as a party organizer.
In addition to his former role as Special Advisor to the
ex-Minister of National Security, Anderson acted as Phillips'
campaign manager in last year's grueling fight between the
PNP and JLP. Anderson now has left the Ministry, as the
current Minister of National Security, Derrick Smith,
considered him too political. Although removed from the
Ministry's day-to-day activities, he keeps in close contact
with the current Permanent Secretary Gilbert Scott, and with
his own successor, Errol Strong. Although PNP through and
through, he also has good contacts within the JLP, and in the
past his information about JLP strategy has been spot on.
Anderson shared his views with NAS Director over a private
luncheon on May 7.

Snap General Election?
--------------


4. (C) Anderson predicted a General Election in July. He
believes that it is almost assured that the ruling JLP will
win, and will pick up any seats that were decided in the last
election by 200 or fewer votes, "with the exception of Peter
Bunting's constituency." Bunting won't lose, according to
Anderson, because he is too well organized and can finance
his own race. For the rest of the PNP candidates, things
don't look so promising. Anderson confirmed that the PNP is
in disarray. The struggle for leadership of the party
continued between ex-Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller and
Phillips. Although Phillips' supporters are urging him to
push Simpson Miller out of office before the next general
election, Anderson thinks Phillips will continue to bide his
time. According to Anderson, "if you are going to pick a
fight like this one, you have to be sure that you will win."
Despite its loss to the JLP in September 2007, and despite
the fact that the PNP is viewed as being corrupt and
ineffective at governing, Simpson Miller still has support
among the PNP faithful. Phillips' calculus is to let Simpson
Miller lose another election in July, and then take over the
party in September 2008, at the next party congress.
Phillips is in no hurry, says Anderson, because they both
believe that the PNP will be out of power for at least two
election cycles (i.e., a decade).


Cabinet Reshuffle after the next election Likely
-------------- ---


5. (C) According to Anderson, Golding's Cabinet as
originally planned looked very different from the current
reality; key people the PM had wanted to turn to had lost
their seats in the September, 2007 election. In the event,
the Cabinet's configuration was the result of post-election
dirty blackmail by Michael Henry, the current Minister of
Transport and Works. According to Anderson, prior to last
year's election, Henry had made a secret deal with the PNP to
cross the aisle if there were a tie, which would have
resulted in a PNP majority. When the JLP won by 32-28 seats
(reftel C),Henry was "down but not out." After the dust
settled and Golding was forming his government, he originally
offered Henry the position of Speaker of the House. Henry
refused, and formed an unholy alliance with Pearnel Charles
(current Minister of Labor and Social Security) and Olivia
"Babsy" Grange (current Minister of Information, Culture,
Youth & Sports). They all went to Golding and threatened to
cross the aisle unless they got ministerial-level positions.
Golding was left with no choice but to appoint them to
ministries, leaving the critical position of Speaker of the
House open, which ended up going to Delroy Chuck. Anderson
is sure that if Golding can win a more comfortable margin in
the next election he will sweep Henry, Grange, and Charles
out of the Cabinet and bring Chuck back as a Minister --
possibly Minister of National Security.


6. (C) Derrick Smith, the current Minister of National
Security, has been out since April 7 (reftel D) recovering
from surgery (to have several toes amputated after gangrene
had set in as a complication of severe diabetes). Anderson
believes that Golding will use the next election and Smith's
failing health as grounds for shifting Smith from National
Security to another less taxing ministry; Golding might ask
Chuck to replace Smith.

Staff Changes underway at Ministry of National Security
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Anderson confirmed that the current Permanent
Secretary (PS) of the Ministry of National Security, Gilbert
Scott, is leaving in November 2008 when his contract expires
(reftel C). Scott, who wants to overlap at least three
months with his successor, already is hand picking potential
candidates for the Minister's consideration. The leading
candidate for the job is Major Richard Reese, the
Commissioner of Corrections. Anderson also knows that the
position is coveted by Ann Marie Barnes, current Sr. Advisor
for Policy. Barnes has stated that she plans to leave the
Ministry in September (reftel C). Reese and Barnes do not
get along, so his appointment would likely ensure her
departure.

Analysis: Impending Appeals Court ruling may prove pivotal
-------------- --------------

8.(C) In the wake of a recent court ruling disqualifying JLP
Member of Parliament (MP) for Portland Western Daryl Vaz, and
the subsequent appeal of the court's ruling by the PNP
runner-up Abe Dabdoub, who seeks to be awarded the seat
without having to face a by-election (reftel B),PM Golding
has gone on record as saying that he will not allow MPs to be
seated solely as a result of court rulings -- implying that,
if the Appeals Court rules in Dabdoub's favor, the PM then
would be forced to call a snap general election. Because
Golding cannot afford further erosion of the JLP's slim
parliamentary majority, he effectively has drawn a line in
the sand: whether Jamaica now faces a series of by-elections
or, alternatively, a snap general election, may well depend
on the impending ruling by the Appeals Court.

9.(C) If a snap general election is called, Anderson's
prediction that the ruling JLP would gain those seats which
had been won or lost by 200 or fewer votes in the 2007
election would amount to less than he seems to realize: only
four (4) seats fall into that category, and Peter Bunting's
Central Manchester seat (won by 207) is not among them.
Eight (8) seats were won/lost by 900 or fewer votes, and post
believes that these could go to either party. Good voter
turn-out would favor the ruling JLP; conversely, voter
fatigue and apathy would work to the advantage of the
opposition PNP, which has a larger base of hard-core
loyalists who will turn out to vote under any circumstances.
Many observers, including University of the West Indies
Sociologist Dr. Ian Boxhill, recently have alluded to the
possibility of voter apathy, and predict a low turnout. Over


a private luncheon on May 8, UK High Commissioner David
Cresswell told Charge that senior JLP officials had told him
confidentially that PM Golding had not yet made a decision
regarding a snap general election.
HEG