RWANDA - MONTHLY POLITICAL ROUND-UP

C O N F I D E N T I A L KIGALI 000750

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/21/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM RW
SUBJECT: RWANDA - MONTHLY POLITICAL ROUND-UP

REF: A. KIGALI 631

B. KIGALI 323

C. KIGALI 107

Classified By: CDA Cheryl Sim for Reason 1.4 (b) (d)


1. (U) In this edition:

- EU Monitoring Team Privately Confirms Faulty Election
Results

- Chamber of Deputies Members Sworn In, Elect Speaker, Two
Deputy Speakers

- Government Seizes Newspaper Edition at Border

- Cabinet Directs Expedited Adoption of English as Language
of Instruction


EU Election Team Pieces Together 25 Percent of the Vote
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2. (C) Prior to its end-of-September departure, the EU
election monitoring team pieced together the results from
just under 25 percent of the vote recorded at Rwanda's
polling stations and polling centers in Rwanda's September 15
Chamber of Deputies elections. As indicated in reftel A,
local and international observers recorded a stunning 95
percent-plus vote total for the ruling Rwanda Patriotic Front
(RPF) at the nation's polling stations. This result was not
reflected in the final results released by the National
Election Commission (NEC),which accorded lower totals for
the ruling party, and higher for two small parties, PL and
PSD, which enabled them to pass the five percent threshold
and remain in parliament. The NEC did not allow independent
observers to monitor vote tallies above polling stations and
centers on election day, rendering the counting process
entirely non-transparent.


3. (C) The EU monitoring team painstakingly collected
results from voting stations and centers in the four
provinces over a two-week period from a variety of sources.
These results show the ruling RPF obtaining 98.39 percent of
the vote, the PL 0.61 percent, and the PSD 0.51 percent, and
an independent candidate 0.48 percent. Said an EU "core
team" member, well-versed in statistical analysis, who shared
these unpublished results with pol/econ chief, "It is
statistically impossible for the results to be what the NEC
claimed they were (78.8 percent for the RPF, 13.1 percent for
the PSD, 7.5 percent for the PL)." The EU observer team did
not approach the NEC on these findings prior to its
departure, reportedly due to the intervention of EU
Ambassador David McRae, who generally advances a pro-GOR
line. While some EU election monitoring officials in
Brussels were supposedly unhappy with the extent of McRae,s
interventions, it is unlikely the EU monitoring team,s final
report will publicly acknowledge these findings.


New Woman Speaker, One New Deputy Speaker, One Old
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4. (U) On October 6, President Kagame swore in the 80-member
Chamber of Deputies, composed of 53 directly-elected members,
24 women representative chosen by women's councils, and three
youth and disabled representatives. The new Chamber includes
45 women members (21 directly elected),or fifty-six percent
of the seats. Kagame called upon the newly elected members
to work together, noting Rwanda's great progress since the
1994 genocide. With regard to the majority status of women
in the Chamber, Kagame said it was an admirable achievement,
but added that having women in Parliament was not just about
numbers. "We need action, results, more progress."


5. (SBU) The Deputies then proceeded to elect a new Speaker,
Rose Mukantabana, one of the Deputies chosen by women's
Rose Mukantabana, one of the Deputies chosen by women's
councils, by a vote of 70 to 10. Little known in political
circles, with no formal allegiance to any political party,
Mukantabana has long experience in the local NGO community,
including five years service as the executive secretary of
Haguruka, a human rights organization that focuses on women's
and children's rights. The Deputies also re-elected Denis
Polisi (RPF),running unopposed, as the Deputy Speaker for
policy matters, and, in a three-way race, chose former Health

Minister Jean Damascene Ntawukuriryayo (PSD) as Deputy
Speaker for finance and administration by a vote of 64 to 13.


6. (C) Comment. The election of the new Speaker appeared
pre-ordained. Mukantabana's name began to circulate in the
days following the September election, and her selection on
October 6 appeared to be no surprise to any of the Deputies.
Denis Polisi, a long-serving member, retains his position as
Deputy Speaker, and will continue to exercise his close
supervision of the Chamber's affairs. Ntawukuriryayo will
bring a certain personal flair to a legislative body short on
charismatic leadership. End comment.

Edition Of "Umuco" Seized at Border
--------------


7. (C) Several local journalists told us that an edition of
the newspaper "Umuco" was seized by Rwandan police and
immigration authorities at the Rwanda/Uganda border post of
Gatuna on October 9. (Note: several local publications use
Ugandan printers for their newspapers, as they are cheaper
than Rwandan enterprises). "Umuco" editor Leonard Rugambaga
told us he was also summoned by the police and asked to
explain why Umuco had resumed publication -- "Umuco"
suspended publication in March when its Editor-in-Chief
Bonaventure Bizumuremyi fled the country after publishing an
issue comparing Kagame to Adolf Hitler (ref C). Rugambaga
said he told the police that he had informed the Ministry of
Information that he intended to resume publication, and was
told there was no bar to doing so. Rugambaga said the police
replied that he should "change the name of the newspaper."


8. (C) Comment. "Umuco" is one of the four local
publications whose journalists are excluded from attending
government events (ref C). This prohibition appears to have
some flexibility, as Mission officers have seen at least one
"banned" journalist attending government events around town.
The Mission obtained a copy of the seized "Umuco" issue and
found nothing terribly controversial in it. As Rwandan
officials have long counseled offending local journalists to
amend their editorial perspective, they may give "Umuco"
another chance -- to change its coverage. End comment.

Cabinet: Speed Up Use of English as Medium of Instruction
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9. (U) On October 8, the Rwandan Cabinet directed the
Ministry of Education to expedite the adoption of English as
the medium of instruction in all publicly-funded primary,
secondary and tertiary schools. The Cabinet also directed
the Ministry of Public Service and Labor to develop a program
to help public servants be "competitive" in English, starting
with senior civil servants. In the days following this
Cabinet decision, President Kagame and other officials made
remarks in support of this decision. Kagame on several
occasions spoke of Rwanda's need to "prioritize" languages,
to be more competitive in both the East African Community and
in the world as a whole. Better to use a language that is
widely spoken, he said, as Rwanda looks for business
opportunities in many countries.


10. (SBU) Comment. This decision has been a long time in
coming, according to several observers of Rwanda's
educational scene. It will not happen overnight, as the
clear majority of Rwanda's schools still teach in French
rather than English. The timing of the announcement was
interesting, coming as it did one week before the Francophone
Summit in Quebec (attended by Prime Minister Makuza and
Cabinet Affairs Minister Murigande) -- Rwanda taking another
opportunity to tweak French noses? End comment.
SIM