RWANDA PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L KIGALI 000521

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/14/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM RW
SUBJECT: RWANDA PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS UPDATE

REF: KIGALI 151

Classified By: CDA Cheryl Sim for Reason 1.4 (b) (d)

Summary.
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1. (C) Preparations have begun in earnest for the September
elections for the Chamber of Deputies. Late July, the EU
elections monitoring advance team arrived in Kigali to begin
preparations for its long-term and short-term observer teams.
The Government of Rwanda (GOR) presented a code of conduct
for journalists to follow during the elections. Three local
teams of local observers will also monitor the September
15-18 parliamentary elections; some of the leadership of the
Civil Society Platform monitoring leadership appears less
than independent. Western missions are meeting biweekly to
discuss election preparations. Although the ruling Rwanda
Patriotic Front is widely expected to win easily, the
willingness of the GOR to allow other political parties to
campaign freely and the National Electoral Commission (NEC)
to function independently will be tested -- a test Rwanda
failed in 2003. End summary.

GOR Briefs on Elections - Everything Ready to Go
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2. (U) On July 10, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs presented
a briefing to the diplomatic community on the September 15-18
Chamber of Deputy elections (the Senate is not up for
election),with NEC President Chrysologue Karangwa and acting
Executive Secretary Charles Munyaneza presiding. The NEC
personnel made the following points:

-- The elections would take place in phases on September 15
(53 directly elected seats),16 (24 indirectly-elected
women's seats),17 (2 indirectly-elected youth seats) and 18
(one indirectly-elected disabled person's seat).
-- With an elections budget of USD 12.2 million, the GOR will
meet approximately 72 percent, with the donors' basket of
funds supplying the rest.
-- Of an estimated 9.2 million population, 4.7 million have
registered to vote.
-- 62,000 NEC electoral agents will be trained, to work at
15,000 polling stations divided among 2,150 polling centers
(generally primary and secondary school yards, with six or
seven polling stations per schoolyard polling center).
-- Invitations had been sent to various international and
local organizations to monitor the elections.
-- Distribution of new voter ID card would begin soon (most
Kigali residents received their cards at their umuganda
community service meetings on Saturday, July 25).
-- extensive voter and civic education programs would start
in the near future.

Local Monitoring Funded -- Some Disarray Among Donors
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3. (C) Funding for three local monitoring efforts also was
finalized in July, the bulk of the support funds going to the
Civil Society Platform effort, with some funding also
accorded to the Great Lakes Human Rights League (LDGL) and
LIPRODHOR, the later two the strongest and most independent
human rights organizations in Rwanda. Funding missions
included the EU, the Dutch, the Belgians and Canadians (the
US mission is funding political party training). There has
been some disagreement within the donor community, with DFID
and UNDP arguing for a single local monitoring effort, while
other missions (including this one) noted that the Civil
Society Platform has long been considered too close to the
government and perhaps incapable of a truly independent
government and perhaps incapable of a truly independent
effort. (Note: Post subsequently heard from several
well-informed local sources that several of the senior
officials chosen by the Civil Society Platform to lead the
monitoring effort are Rwanda Patriotic Front operatives whose
independence is questionable. End note). The Civil Society
Platform will field 50 long-term observers, and 500
short-term observers, with a donor-supplied technical expert
to assist them. The LDGL mission will try to field 60
long-term and 100 short-term observers. The LIPRODHOR effort
is still taking shape. Discussions are occurring among the
three on coordination of observation efforts in the field, as
well as with the EU Mission mentioned below.

EU Mission Arrives
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4. (C) The EU elections observation mission "core team"
arrived July 19, and held its first press conference July 29.
A 20-person long-term team fanned out around the country
August 2 to begin observing preparations for the elections
(in advance of the formal August 25-September 14 campaign
period). A few days before the election, 50 short-term EU
monitors will also arrive. In a meeting with political
officers on August 1, Deputy Chief Observer Claudia Vollmer
said the team had met with the Prime Minister, the NEC, the
Supreme Court, political parties, and civil society. The EU
team would liaise with the local monitoring groups, and meet
with diplomatic missions regularly, she said. Western
missions have established a bi-weekly "elections" meeting to
share information and discuss issues; the EU monitoring team
will now join this regular meeting. Vollner also alluded
briefly to a "hold-up" with visas for several of its
observers. The GOR had some time ago reserved the right to
"vet" prospective observers, and the EU had decided to seek
to diminish any problems on this score by any avoiding
"known" personalities with whom the GOR might have a problem
(reftel). Local press reports later identified the observers
as one French and two Spanish citizens.

Electoral Code Change?
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5. (C) While amendments to the gacaca law in 2007 allowed
those convicted of category three genocide offenses (those
found guilty of property crimes) to vote, the current
electoral code still forbids the voter registration of anyone
convicted or accused of any gacaca offense, including
property crimes. Work on a new electoral code has been slow,
and harmonization of the two laws before the September
election appears unlikely. However, a last-minute change is
supposedly in the works to allow these "category three"
persons to vote. If this occurs, the change would
enfranchise several hundred thousand (Hutu) voters. The
formal voter registration process is over, but on the
district level government functionaries may have already
begun making arrangements to accommodate these voters.

Journalists' Code of Conduct Approved
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6. (C) Journalists "approved" a Code of Conduct at a meeting
hosted by the High Council of the Press on July 25. A BBC
reporter who attended told us that the assembled journalists
"had no power of veto" and they were simply brought together
to approve the text as presented to them. None of the
"independent" journalists banned from government events were
invited to this session. The Code has a number of sections
which proclaim the rights of journalists to gather news and
defend free speech, but also requires them to "abstain" from
publishing any information that encourages division or
discrimination (these concepts undefined). They are also
required to "rectify" any information they publish that may
be "detrimental" to the dignity or reputation of a candidate
or party -- hardly a prescription for vigorous election
coverage.

Comment
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7. (C) As in 2003, most political parties (there are nine in
total) may join the ruling RPF in a parliamentary election
coalition, leaving only two parties to actually contest
seats, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the Liberal
Party (PL). Given its overwhelming superiority in resources
and patronage, we expect the RPF to maintain its hold on the
lower chamber. Nevertheless, as noted in earlier reporting
(reftel),this election could provide a clear test of
multiparty democracy in Rwanda and the willingness of the GOR
to allow for the free-functioning of political parties and
the NEC -- a test Rwanda largely failed in 2003. End comment.





SIM