MINAWI SAYS KHALIL IBRAHIM STRONGER AFTER OMDURMAN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000764

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AF/C AND AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU
SUBJECT: MINAWI SAYS KHALIL IBRAHIM STRONGER AFTER OMDURMAN
ATTACK

REF: A. KHARTOUM 761

B. KHARTOUM 760

C. KHARTOUM 755

D. KHARTOUM 741

E. KHARTOUM 734

F. KHARTOUM 724

Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: JEM leader Khalil Ibrahim is stronger as a
result of the attack on Omdurman, despite the short-term loss
of fighters and vehicles, according to SLM leader and Senior
Assistant to the President Minni Minawi. Minawi believes an
attack on Chad is imminent, despite comments from other
Sudanese Government sources to the contrary. Minawi reported
continued detentions and abuses of Zaghawa in Omdurman and
Khartoum. End summary.

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Aftermath of JEM Attack on Omdurman
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2. (C) Senior GNU Presidential Assistant and SLM leader Minni
Minawi told poloffs in Juba on May 16 that JEM leader Khalil
Ibrahim, who he said is undoubtedly in Chad, will likely
emerge stronger as a result of the attack on Omdurman. The
bold raid on Sudan's capital has inspired young Zaghawa in
Darfur and will make it much easier for JEM to recruit
fighters. Minawi said that his understanding is that JEM
leader Khalil Ibrahim attacked Omdurman with at least 1,500
soldiers. Although as many as 300 JEM fighters may have been
killed trying to take the Wadi Sayedna military base and
inside Omdurman, and another 100 captured, Minawi predicted
it will be easy to replace them. Contradicting reports that
JEM is now weakened by their losses, Minawi said Khalil was
well provisioned by Chadian President Deby following JEM,s
February 2008 defense of Ndjamena, receiving at least one
hundred fifty vehicles in a single shipment. He said there
is no doubt that Deby will continue to support JEM. Minawi
disputed allegations that his own commanders and fighters had
participated in the attack.


3. (S/NF) Note: In a May 15 phone call with Poloff, Minawi
explained that the SLM's largely Zaghawa force in Darfur was
agitating for active military confrontation with the Sudanese
Armed Force in the aftermath of the JEM attack. Ali Traio, a
senior advisor to Minawi, later told Poloff on May 18 that
SLM field commanders note that, until recently, JEM's
military capacity was weak and question why the SLM, which
possesses a great fighting ability, does not march on
Khartoum given the apparent weakness in the regime's defense.
Traio said that SLM Chief Commander Jumah Hagar is trying to
quiet these voices, but both he and Minawi need urgent
delivery of the promised USG food assistance to strengthen
their hand. End note.


4. (C) Minawi said that as a result of the JEM attack on
Omdurman May 10, the Zaghawa community in Omdurman and
Khartoum continues to be harassed by GOS security services.
In addition to closing the Suq Libya (the &Libyan Market8
where many Zaghawa traders make a living in Omdurman) over
200 people have been detained for questioning, the majority
of them Zaghawa. He said many of these people have been
beaten severely during their detention. Minawi did not pass
on any reports of summary executions. (Note: Minawi has
ordered the creation of an SLM commission to track detentions
and persecution following the JEM attack. Post will
facilitate contact between this commission and UN Human
Rights, which is monitoring developments regarding
post-attack arrests and retribution, and will continue to
press Government officials to ensure maximum access for the
UN. End note.)

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Attack on Ndjamena Likely but Expected to Fail
-------------- -


5. (C) Expressing supreme confidence in the military
superiority of his own small but warlike Zaghawa tribe,
Minawi thought an attack on Ndjamena by Khartoum's Chadian
proxies in the next few weeks is likely, but said it will
fail without Zaghawa RFC leader Timane Erdimi. Minawi
thought it unlikely that Erdimi will rejoin the Chadian rebel

KHARTOUM 00000764 002 OF 002


National Alliance for a second attack. The reason the
February attack failed is because Erdimi backed out of the
alliance at the last minute, and the offensive collapsed.
Minawi said he has heard that National Intelligence and
Security Service Director General Salah Ghosh is pushing hard
for an immediate attack by the Chadian rebels on Ndjamena
(Note: CDA Fernandez warned NCP party chief Nafie and MFA U/S
Mutriff Siddiq of just such an escalation on May 18 and 19,
respectively).


6. (C) Asked if there had been any initiatives to create an
inter-clan Zaghawa alliance, Minawi said that he himself is
working on such a plan but did not divulge specifics. In the
short term he still hopes to organize a conference on the
Darfur Peace Agreement and how it could be expanded to
include other rebel groups besides his own faction of the SLM.

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SPLM-SLM Dynamics
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7. (C) Minawi expressed frustration that the SPLM continues
to ignore him. Following the opening ceremony of the SPLM
Convention, the SPLM did not provide him with transportation,
nor was a room immediately available for him. He
acknowledged that the SPLM has many other issues on its plate
at the moment, but was nonetheless frustrated by the lack of
attention, particularly by that of Presidential Affairs
Minister Luka Biong Deng, who had seen him only once &and
only briefly8 since his arrival in Juba. (Comment: SPLM
officials were more aware of Minawi when he was meeting with
poloffs, however, frequently coming over to pass greetings
and provide him with Convention updates, appearing to belie
Minawi's earlier lamentations of SPLM neglect. Moreover,
subsequent to our meeting with him, GOSS President Kiir,
Minister for Presidential Affairs Luka Biong Deng, and Minawi
met May 18. Minawi told poloffs that he intends to depart to
Darfur directly from Juba. End comment.)

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Comment
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8. (C) We agree with Minawi's assessment that JEM may be
stronger as a result of the May 10 attack on Omdurman,
despite the short-term loss of fighters and vehicles. While
many in the capital honestly rejected the attack and the
political opposition has rallied around the regime, in
Darfur, the bold raid has had the opposite effect. The
ability to recruit inspired young Zaghawa to his movement is
a tremendous advantage if the arrogant Khalil can capitalize
on it as Zaghawa provide the overwhelming bulk of fighters in
the Darfur conflict and their skill in raiding and navigating
"by the moon" in the vast Sudanese desert garners respect and
fear by the regime, including the notorious janjaweed.
Minawi's assertion that Ghosh is pushing for an attack on
Ndjamena contradicts what Presidential advisor Nafie told CDA
May 18 (Ref B),and does not seem to be based on any special
inside information from the regime, who rarely share anything
of a sensitive nature with Minawi. It also contradicts what
NISS Deputy Majok told the SPLM, that President Bashir might
support a trip by FM Alor to Paris to persuade the French to
lean on Chad to cut off support for JEM (Ref E).
FERNANDEZ