SPLM HOLDS FOUR-DAY CPA CELEBRATION IN WAU

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000075

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/SPG, S/CRS, AF SE WILLIAMSON
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: SPLM HOLDS FOUR-DAY CPA CELEBRATION IN WAU



1. (SBU) The GoSS pulled out all the stops to hold its own
celebrations of the third anniversary of the signing of the CPA,
with a four-day celebration in the southern city of Wau from January
13 to 16 that included cultural events, speeches, sports
competitions and parades. By holding the celebration in Wau, and
moving almost the entire senior leadership there for the event, the
GoSS intended to show that this is not a Juba-centric government,
but one that represents all the regions of the south. On January
14, the GoSS flew the entire diplomatic community and many of the
NGOs in Juba to Wau for the day so they could attend GoSS President
Salva Kiir's address to the people. Although the SPLM participated
in the low-key CPA events held in Khartoum on January 9 (there were
no public events in Khartoum, and none to which the diplomatic
community was invited) the events in Wau were the primary focus of
the SPLM and the GoSS.


2. (SBU) GoSS President Kiir delivered his speech at the Wau soccer
stadium. This was preceded by parades and speeches by others,
including Vice President Taha, the only member of the NCP present
for the event. Taha spoke only in Arabic, the only speaker to do
so. Taha's address outlined the benefits the CPA has brought, as
well as its potential to allow the people of the Sudan to live
together in a "new Sudan" with prosperity for all. Kiir's address
followed. On the one hand, he praised the CPA and extolled the
fruits of peace and the benefits of increasing development and
prosperity made possible by peace. On the other hand, he advised
the GOS that the southern commitment to unity was "conditional" and
that the enemies of peace intent on stirring up trouble should not
"overplay your hand."


4. (SBU) While citing the large income that the GoSS receives from
oil sharing with the north, Kiir pointedly asserted that southern
Sudan on a per capita basis gets far less than the north. He
complained that he had inherited a corrupt civil service in 2005,
but that he would not tolerate further corruption and would work to
stamp it out. He warned that the challenges for the South are
enormous, and that mistakes will inevitably be made, but he promised
progress on all fronts including health care, education,
development, and road building.


5. (SBU) Kiir went on to discuss specific outstanding problems with
the CPA. At the top of the list was the demarcation of the border
in Abyei, which he said must be settled in 2008. The 2009
elections, he maintained, would also present a major test of the
CPA. All parties must participate in the elections, but he said
Sudan needs to learn a lesson from Kenya and avoid the violence that
marked elections there.


6. (SBU) In a warning to the North, Kiir plainly stated that the
GoSS commitment to the unity of the Sudan was conditional and it was
"up to the north, not to us." "They must make unity attractive,
because the people of the south preserved the right to
self-determination in 2011." There are, he said, sworn enemies to
the peace who are currently stirring up problems on the border.
"Don't overplay your hand," he pointedly warned them, by fighting
proxy wars on the border. He called for continued vigilance and
pressure by the international community to keep the CPA on track.
Without such pressure in the first place, he said the CPA would
never have been signed in the first place.


7. (SBU) On Darfur, the GoSS supported the hybrid force deployment
and Kiir promised that 2008, with GoSS assistance, would be the year
that peace comes to that troubled region. Finally, Kiir stated that
the GoSS is committed to devoting 2 percent of its oil revenue to
assist the "marginalized peoples" of the Sudan.


8. (SBU) Comment: On the whole, the tone of the speech was upbeat
about the future of the south, but full of warnings to the north
about the limits of southern patience. Of particular note was the
public commitment to use 2 percent of GoSS oil revenues to court the
marginalized peoples of the Sudan, which seemed to indicate that
Kiir's strategy for the 2009 elections will be to run against the
NCP in alliance with the other marginalized peoples of the Sudan.
Or conversely, in typical Sudanese style it could also have been an
opening bargaining ploy to pressure the NCP to meet SPLM demands on
border demarcation and other issues in return for not running
against the NCP. At this point, the SPLM intends to keep its
options open.

FERNANDEZ