CHAD: AWAITING CONTACT FROM DEBY, NOURI sEEKS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000713

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, AND
AF/C
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU
PARIS FOR KANEDA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV SU CD LY SA
SUBJECT: CHAD: AWAITING CONTACT FROM DEBY, NOURI sEEKS
"CLOBAL COLUTION"

RAF: SECTa\E461Q

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IomeYQm)mQ#Mj!Q(]bBi&GQiUc:ppI,"QqB27ile h Deby's
Government, Nouri reported that no Chadian representatives,
including Prime Minister Youssouf Saleh Abbas, have contacted
any of the National Alliance's leaders since 2007.
Acknowledging that the AN has not attempted to contact the
Chadian Government directly, he asserted that they had passed
word of their willingness to negotiate through the
Libyan/Congolese mediation. Calling on the U.S. to "wake up"
to the widespread opposition to Deby's rule, Nouri
articulated a long-term approach to creating a "culture" of
democracy. He remains enthusiastic to a meeting between AN
leaders and a USG official in a third country and suggested
that the U.S. "facilitate" discussions among the armed and
unarmed opposition and the Chadian Government. End summary.

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Seeking a "Global Solution"
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2. (C) In a meeting with Union des Force du Developpement et
de la Democratie (UFDD) President Mahamat Nouri and National
Alliance (AN) Secretary General Abakar Tolli on May 8,
Polcouns and Poloff delivered reftel points. Nouri
reiterated his preference for a peaceful solution to the AN's
conflict with the Chadian Government and said that he sought
a "global solution" to his country's domestic problems that
would include a dialogue among representatives of Deby's
regime, the armed and unarmed opposition, and civil
society--not just direct negotiations between the AN and
Ndjamena. He reported that Sudan is "more and more
supportive of dialogue" to resolve the conflict in Chad.

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Waiting for Deby
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3. (C) Asked why, if Sudan, the U.S., and the AN itself
supported dialogue, such discussions had not begun, Nouri
replied, "we're waiting for Deby to be open to dialogue.
It's like a marriage: You cannot have a marriage without
both parties' involvement, and we cannot prevent war without
all the parties talking." Reporting that N'djamena had not
contacted the AN leaders since the Sirte Accord of
2007--despite Prime Minister Youssouf Saleh Abbas' recent
speech indicating his intention to reach out to the rebel
movements--Nouri and Tolli also acknowledged the Chadian
rebels had not initiated such discussions. They had,
however, communicated their desire for negotiations through
the Congo/Libyan mediation, said Nouri.

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National Reconciliation, Elections...
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4. (C) Nouri maintained that the AN will renounce the use of
force and its demands for Deby's immediate removal from power
if an AN leader is appointed prime minister to 1) lead a
"national roundtable" for reconciliation among Chadian
political, military, and civilian elements; and 2) prepare

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for the elections in 2009, in which Deby will be barred from
running. Tolli asserted that Nouri, as the undisputed leader
of the AN composed of the UFDD, Abdelwahid Aboud's UFDD/F,
and Ahmed Soubian's Front du Salut de la Republique (FSR),
would assume the prime minister post under this scenario.


5. (C) Nouri said that the Libyans had suggested just such a
scenario, which Deby rejected, during the Sirte negotiations
in 2007. Ultimately, the Sirte agreement was insufficient in
promoting political change in Chad, but Nouri said he had
signed as a result of Libyan threats. Unless Deby's power is
limited and a national reconciliation process can begin
before the 2009 elections, Nouri predicted that these
elections would be a failure. "Deby humiliates the
opposition, humiliates civil society, and will prevent their
participation in elections," said Nouri. He called on the
U.S. and the Western powers to "wake up" to widespread
opposition to Deby's rule among ordinary Chadians.


6. (C) If, however, Deby continues to reject any constructive
discussions with the Chadian rebels and other elements of
Chadian society, Nouri said that the AN will proceed with
plans to overthrow the regime by force. In this case, an
interim administration led by the AN will govern the country
during a six-month transition period, convene a "national
roundtable" to shepherd a reconciliation process, and prepare
for elections. Nouri pledged that the leaders of the interim
administration would not run in these elections.

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Forging a Culture of Democracy
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7. (C) Though the AN is still considering the violent
overthrow of Deby's government as a viable option, Nouri
nonetheless expressed little enthusiasm or urgency for this
course, emphasizing instead that "democracy is a culture, a
process." The cycle of violence in Chad has continued since
1967, said Nouri, and the only method of breaking this cycle
is through the involvement of all elements of the Chadian
population in their political life. He asserted that it will
take time and discussions for the disparate and volatile
elements of Chadian society to build a consensus on their
country's future but that the divisive and ethnically-driven
policies of the Chadian Government, in which Deby is the sole
and autocratic decision-maker, prevented such action. "We
have a great ambition (for democracy in Chad),but it's worth
thinking and talking to attain it."

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U.S. As "Facilitator"
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8. (C) Nouri and Tolli disparaged Libya, Congo-Brazzaville,
and AU Chairman Jean Ping (a Libyan lackey in their
estimation) for their pro-Deby bias, though noted that
Congo-Brazzaville is somewhat less tainted by Libyan
influence than Gabon. They were grateful for recent USG
contact with the AN and called for a greater U.S. role in the
political process. Polcouns explained that while the U.S.
may consider playing an observer role to any discussions, it
is not now prepared to serve as a mediator. Nouri suggested
the U.S. work as "facilitator" for a dialogue with the
Chadian Government that includes all elements of the
opposition. International pressure is needed to moderate
Deby's continued refusal for constructive talks, said Nouri.
Poloff noted that keeping up the threat of violent overthrow
indicated that the AN had lost hope in a peace process.
Nouri responded, "Yes, but we're waiting for hope."

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Extremist Allegations "Unthinkable"

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9. (C) Nouri called allegations that he or the AN harbor an
extremist agenda "unthinkable lies spread by Ndjamena" and
noted that, despite having served as ambassador to Saudi
Arabia, he found the Saudis--particularly Crown Prince
Sultan--difficult. He said Saudi Arabia's support for the
Chadian Government is "now more timid," adding that Riyadh
"has had enough of Deby." Tolli remarked that the Saudis
have tired of Deby's "exaggerations" and his readiness to
break his commitments.

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Comment
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10. (S/NF) Throughout the conversation, Nouri demonstrated an
academic-like demeanor in articulating the dynamics of the
Chadian political scene, at one point bringing in a map to
explain particular geographic features of the Tibestie region
and the roots of the Toubou tribe's impulsive nature. While
adamantly opposed to the Chadian Government and its policies,
he expressed none of the personal vitriol toward Deby or his
inner circle that is common among other AN rebels we have
met. Nouri is enthusiastic about a meeting with a USG
official in a third country and, fearing for his safety if he
travels outside of Sudan, said that Tolli and Soubian are
empowered to represent AN views. Nouri and Tolli's close
relationship, mutual respect, and shared political views were
evident throughout the discussion. The meeting occurred in a
large well-appointed house in the Ma'amoura neighborhood of
Khartoum, one block from Tolli's current residence. Nouri,
whose wife also introduced herself to Emboffs, has obviously
been receiving frequent visitors since his arrival in
Khartoum on May 6. End comment.


11. (U) Tripoli minimize considered.
FERNANDEZ