SUDAN WARNS OF JEM RAID ON KHARTOUM, ASKS FOR U.S.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000710

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, AF/C,
DS/IP, AND DS/IP/ITA
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ASEC SU CD
SUBJECT: SUDAN WARNS OF JEM RAID ON KHARTOUM, ASKS FOR U.S.
HELP

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Classified By: DCM Roberto Powers, Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) and (d)

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Summary
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1. (C) In a call to CDA Fernandez late on May 8 and during a
hastily convened diplomatic corps briefing on May 9, Sudan
warned of an advance of JEM rebel forces deep into Sudanese
territory, including a possible attack on a suburb of
Khartoum within days. The Government also made a public
statement to this effect, which ran in local papers on May 9.
Sudan alleged that Chadian military elements were supporting
the offensive and called on the U.S. and the international
community to urge Chad to "call off the attack" and to
provide information on the rebel advance. JEM
representatives denied an advance on Khartoum and dismissed
suggestions that the Chadian military is embedded in the
movement. Senior Assistant to the President Minni Minawi
denied rumors that he is both colluding with the insurgents
and had resigned from the Government, and the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs confirmed Minawi's assertions. End summary.

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MFA: JEM Incursion Underway
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2. (C) Ministry of Foreign Affairs Undersecretary Mutriff
Siddiq telephoned CDA Fernandez late on May 8 to report that
an incursion of the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) deep
into Sudan may be underway. Siddiq had just returned to
Khartoum International Airport from the Sudan Consortium in
Oslo, Norway. An "all Zaghawa force" composed of JEM and
Chadian military personnel may attack the Khartoum suburb of
Omdurman within days, he warned. Mutriff requested USG
assistance to "identify this force so that innocent civilians
are not targeted by mistake" and noted that such an audacious
JEM attack deep inside Sudan would be a disaster.

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Sudan Briefs Diplomatic Corps
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3. (SBU) MFA U/S Siddiq then convoked the diplomatic corps
the morning of May 9 to inform them of these developments "in
view of the urgency of the situation." He said that the GOS
has been following information "for more than a month" that
JEM has been planning an attack on targets deep in Sudanese
"national territory." He said the GOS received information
that a large group of forces crossed into Sudan "from the
neighboring country" (clearly implying Chad) about one week
ago. These forces combined with JEM forces and, led by JEM
chairman Khalil Ibrahim in four groups, advanced through
North Darfur into Northern Kordofan and on May 8 had arrived
within 200 kilometers of Omdurman. Siddiq said the total
force of approximately 3000 soldiers had "assembled again" in
search of water and shelter and then dispersed along the
mountains in Northern Kordofan due to their concerns about
attacks from the Sudanese Air Force.


4. (SBU) Siddiq was vague in identifying specific locations
where he claimed the forces are now "dispersed," but said the
rebel forces might attack targets anywhere along the sandy
plain from Merowe or Dongola in the North, to Omdurman
alongside the national capital, all the way south to Al Obeid
or Al Nahud in Kordofan. (Note: This is a lengthy swath of
territory running 750 kilometers North to South. Siddiq
noted that given the flat sandy plains the rebel vehicles
could cover at least 50 kilometers or more per hour. UNAMID
sources in El Fasher posited on May 9 that JEM forces are
likely concentrating in Kordofan rather than in Northern
Sudan near Merowe. End note.)


5. (SBU) Siddiq said the force is entirely Zaghawa led by JEM
and is supported with troops comprised of "his brothers from
the neighboring country." He said the force is well armed
with artillery and vehicles. Siddiq said that Sudan
Liberation Movement (SLM) chairman and Senior Assistant to
the President Minni Minawi is not involved in this attack and
that in fact Minawi had been helpful, providing some useful
information to the GNU. Siddiq said that all of the forces
in the GNU had pledged their support, including GNU First
Vice President Salva Kiir, "who offered to send his forces to
defend the country if necessary."


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Sudan Asks for International Support
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6. (SBU) Siddiq said the GNU does not want to alarm civilians
more than necessary, "however they will soon know about these
events when they see the mobilization of military forces in
these areas as a response." Siddiq called on "our friends in
the international community" to call on "the neighboring
country (Chad) and these forces to call off the attack" in
the interests of protecting the lives of innocent civilians.
Siddiq said the Sudanese Air Force is not in a position to
attack the rebels now, since they are "dispersed in villages
and towns and we do not want to hurt any civilians."
However, Siddiq said that the SAF will attack the rebels when
they are "exposed in the open areas on the plains." He noted
that Sudan is a developing country with limited technical
capacity and therefore does not have the ability to conduct
air operations against the rebels at night, if they do mount
an overnight attack. Ominously, Siddiq threatened that "if
the rebels are not deterred by their friends, we will have to
deal with them, and we will try to minimize civilian
casualties." Siddiq vowed that "we hope this will be the end
of the story of Khalil Ibrahim."


7. (SBU) Siddiq warned that although the rebels had not yet
attacked any garrisons or civilian targets, once the rebels
are defeated and turn back toward Darfur they are "likely to
attack some locations in desperation" in search of vehicles
and fuel. Siddiq promised that for now the GNU will continue
to secure humanitarian convoys to ensure supplies to "the
needy people of Darfur," but regretted that "we may have to
stop them if necessary and we will coordinate with WFP."


8. (SBU) In an apparent dig against the UN forces in Sudan,
Siddiq said that the GNU had tried to coordinate with UNAMID
Joint Special Representative Rodolphe Adada "but we could not
find him." Siddiq said the GNU had also tried to coordinate
with UNMIS but that SRSG Ashraf Qazi traveled directly from
the Sudan Consortium meetings in Oslo to New York.
Therefore, Siddiq said the GNU had communicated directly with
the office of UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to inform him
of these events. Siddiq noted that the GNU was also able to
reach someone from the local office of the African Union
(AU),who was present at the diplomatic corps briefing.

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JEM Denies Reports
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9. (C) In conversations with Poloff and Fieldpoloff on May 9,
JEM's former Cease-fire representative in El Fasher and the
JEM representative in N'djamena dismissed suggestions of a
JEM advance. They characterized as "ridiculous" reports that
Chadian military elements are embedded with JEM forces and
said it was unlikely that JEM had reached within 100km of
Khartoum. The representative in N'djamena did, however,
ominously note that "in Sudan, anything is possible."

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Minawi: Not Involved in JEM Advance
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10. (C) In a phone conversation with Poloff on May 9, Minawi
denied rumors that he is involved and confirmed that he
remains in the Government of National Unity (GNU). Minawi
said that he was monitoring a JEM/Chadian military advance
across the Chadian border into North Darfur earlier this week
but had then lost track of the column. Minawi said that the
Minister of Presidential Affairs Bakri Hassan Saleh spoke to
him at approximately 0100 local time on May 9 to report that
JEM forces, reinforced by elements from the Chadian military,
were 190 km from Omdurman. Minawi, who was at a wedding in
Omdurman at the time, returned to his residence in Khartoum.


11. (C) Fearing reprisals against the Zaghawa in Khartoum
(both Minawi's SLM and the majority of JEM partisans hail
from the Zaghawa tribe),Minawi called his senior lieutenants
to converge on his residence. He was later informed that the
security services had arrested at least 20 SLM members in
Omdurman. He protested these reprisals to the Sudan People's
Liberation Movement's (SPLM) deputy in the National
Intelligence and Security Service (NISS) on the morning of
May 9, who also confirmed that JEM forces were advancing on
Khartoum. Later on May 9, Minister of Livestock and

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Fisheries Mohammed Ahme Altahir Abu Kalabish--a Kordofan
native and former member of Jaffar Nimeiri's inner circle
with ties to the National Congress Party (NCP)--told Minawi
that the NCP is seeking to paint him as a co-conspirator with
JEM.

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PCP: NCP Scheme on Security Law
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12. (C) Popular Congress Party (PCP) Secretary General Bashir
Adam Rahma told Poloff on May 9 that the PCP, which is led by
former regime founding father Hassan Al Turabi and has long
been rumored to have strong ties to JEM, is unaware of any
advance on Khartoum. He postulated that the NCP may have
concocted the incident to prejudice an ongoing debate in the
National Assembly to strengthen the internal security law in
favor of NISS.

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Comment
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13. (C) The GNU's purpose in convening the diplomatic
community and making a public statement about the alleged JEM
attack appears aimed at spotlighting JEM's intentions to
attack targets outside of Darfur, as well as publicly
justifying the regime's intentions to hit back hard against
JEM. Siddiq's comments that "we hope that this will be the
end of the story of Khalil Ibrahim" is telling, though in
reality the regime has demonstrated a limited ability to
cause any serious damage to JEM. Given our information from
limited JEM sources and the CFC, it appears that JEM is
indeed on the move and may well have sent forces into
Kordofan--and it is worth noting that JEM has attacked
targets including oil installations in Kordofan on at least
two occasions over the last six months. However, whether
this is indeed a large-scale force of 3000 troops directly
reinforced by Chadian troops as claimed by the GNU remains to
be seen. The GNU has been anxious about JEM plans for
several weeks, telling us on several occasions that they have
information of impending JEM attacks, and JEM itself warned
of an expansion of its military campaign outside Darfur if
the GNU did not respond to its request over two months ago
for direct negotiations. Over the next few days Post will
continue to gather information and update the Department on
developments. Post is convening an EAC meeting May 9
(septel) to determine whether any specific actions are
required. End comment.


14. (U) Tripoli minimize considered.
FERNANDEZ