UNMIS DEPUTY RESIDENT SEES PROBLEMS AHEAD IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 000070

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, AF/SPG, SE WILLIAMSON, IO,
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/18/2012
TAGS: KPKO PGOV PREL UN AU SU
SUBJECT: UNMIS DEPUTY RESIDENT SEES PROBLEMS AHEAD IN
GOVERNANCE, CENSUS AND UNMIS LEADERSHIP

REF: 07 KHARTOUM 1971

Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) This is an action cable, please see para 5.


2. (C) Summary: UNMIS Deputy Resident and Humanitarian
Coordinator for South Sudan David Gressly worries that poor
governance and corruption risk derailing the potentially
bright future of South Sudan while budget shortfalls could
lead to problems with the spring 2008 census and the early
departure of the UNMIS Force Commander could imperil that
mission's work at a crucial period when Northern and Southern
military forces are redeploying and need to be closely
monitored. End summary.


3. (C) UNMIS Deputy Resident David Gressly told AF PDAS Linda
Thomas-Greeenfield and CDA Fernandez on January 16 in Juba
that corruption and mismanagement in the Government of South
Sudan (GOSS) threaten to blight South Sudan's future. "It
could wind up as a smaller version of Nigeria, a corrupt oil
state never fulfilling its promise," he noted. Gressly said
that there were still some decent individuals in the
leadership of the GOSS and the SPLM but the international
community needed to do more to build accountability, good
governance and anti-corruption into the system before it is
too late. GOSS procurement continues to be a major problem.
Gressly said that GOSS President Kiir had highlighted the
importance of road building and infrastructure development in
the South, especially in Jongelei State, the South's largest
but one which has seen very few tangible benefits of peace.
Kiir is eager to see roads built connecting South Sudan to
Ethiopia (through Jongelei) as an alternate to the
Uganda/Kenya corridors which serve as an economic and
security lifeline for the South.


4. (C) Gressly asked for American pressure on the Government
of National Unity (GNU) in Khartoum to pay the final
installment of $11 million for the 2008 census. While the
central government delivered $30 million for this initiative
in December (reftel),the remaining shortfall could endanger
the upcoming census in the South which should take place
before the rainy season begins in earnest in May. The GOSS
itself has no cash reserves and can't make up the shortfall
on its own. Gressly was relatively optimistic about progress
in the South and in Sudan in general in the near term, until
2009, but worried about the period between the 2009 elections
and the 2011 referendum as the period of greatest danger for
Sudan. CDA Fernandez answered that he would raise the $11
million shortfall with the GNU although the Sudanese usually
blamed the US for its budget problems.


5. (C) Action request: Gressly noted that UNMIS Force
Commander LTG Jasbir Singh Lidder had only received a 3 month
extension to his assignment in the South. He forcefully
urged that the USG intervene with the UN in New York and with
the Indian Government in New Delhi to extend Lidder's term an
additional 3 months, at least. Lidder's leadership and
expertise is needed at this critical juncture when SAF and
SPLA units are redeploying and JIUs need to be trained,
equipped and positioned in sensitive border and oil regions.
This total extension of six months for Lidder would take
UNMIS through the key tasks identified for 2008 before the
summer rains make movement unfeasible in South Sudan.


6. (U) PDAS Thomas-Greenfield did not review this message
before her departure from post.
FERNANDEZ