MANSOUR KHALID ON SPLM PREPARATIONS FOR PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000669

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AND AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/01/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU
SUBJECT: MANSOUR KHALID ON SPLM PREPARATIONS FOR PARTY
CONVENTION


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Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Everything is on track for the SPLM convention to go
forward May 10, GOS Presidential Advisor and prominent SPLM
northerner Dr. Mansour Khalid told CDA and polchief April 29.
Khalid expects full support for Salva Kiir as Chairman of
the party as "no one would dare stand against him." Khalid
said Pagan Amun has a good chance of retaining his post as
*Secretary* General of the party, although Nhial Deng Nhial and
Abdel Aziz Helou may also be strong candidates. Khalid
expressed concern about GOSS Vice President Riek Machar as a
possible spoiler, describing him as "a man in a hurry."
Khalid is also worried about the armed militias of Paulino
Matip and to a lesser extent Riek Machar (both former Nuer
warlords now ostensibly part of the SPLM/SPLA). Khalid said
Paulino may have as many as 1000 armed bodyguards in Juba,
and didn't discount that it may have been these soldiers who
perpetrated the armed robberies against INGOs over the last
two months. Machar's personal force is smaller, in the
hundreds of men.

SPLM CONVENTION
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2. (C) Despite rumors that the SPLM convention will be
postponed, Khalid insisted that it will go forward as planned
on May 10 in Juba. "Everyone is ready" and all preparations
are on track, said Khalid. He confidently predicted that the
party will support President Kiir to continue as head of the
SPLM, as "no one would dare stand against him." Khalid said
current SPLM Secretary General and Minister of Cabinet
Affairs Pagan Amun would likely be re-elected, but
acknowledged there is a chance that someone else in the party
may unseat him. Khalid pointed to battle-hardened commanders
and well-known SPLM figures who have recently returned to
Sudan such as Nhial Deng Nhial and Abdel Aziz Helou as
possible candidates, but noted that although Nhial Deng is an
"incorruptible" intellectual he is not a good communicator.
Khalid said that once the Secretary General is identified,
the next task will be to identify a chairman of the SPLM
Political Bureau, who will then propose the names of other
members of the bureau. (Note: From other sources, we have
heard that the convention will also produce a new secretary
general for each state, and that southern state governors may
lose their current dual role as state-level SPLM secretary
general. End note.)

SPOILERS
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3. (C) Khalid identified Nuer leader and current GOSS Vice
President, the scheming Riek Machar and former GNU Foreign
Minister and SPLM turncoat Lam Akol as possible spoilers, but
said for now their ability to cause problems is limited.
Khalid said that during the recent turmoil over whether to
proceed with the census in the South, the only minister who
stood with Riek against Kiir was Riek's own wife Angelina
Teny (GNU Minister of State for Energy and Mines). "Riek is
a man in a hurry," observed Khalid, "but he is going to have
to wait his turn." However Khalid expressed concern about
the number of weapons in Juba and suggested that the "private
armies" of Riek Machar and Paulino Matip (former SSDF
commander now incorporated into the SPLA) should be disarmed.
"Riek is playing on Paulino," said Khalid, and this has
resulted not just in an increase in crime and instability in
Juba, but intrigue and instability in the oil-rich Nuer
heartland of Unity and Upper Nile states. Khalid said
Paulino has a personal militia of at least 1000 men in Juba,
and did not discount that the recent crime wave of armed
robberies, carried out by gangs of armed men, were
perpetrated by Paulino's militia.

KHARTOUM DYNAMICS
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4. (C) Khalid said that, ironically, the only person in the
GNU who currently appreciates the role of the SPLM is Ahmed
Harun (ICC indictee and current State Minister of
Humanitarian Affairs). Khalid said Harun had engaged
sincerely on Abyei and other issues. Khalid described
Presidential Advisor Dr. Mustafa Osman Ismail as "cynical"

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and discounted Vice President Taha as being "kept out of the
picture." However, he said Taha has not given up hope of
undermining President Al-Bashir's hold on the military and on
the NCP's own armed militia. "He is working on these people"
by appealing to the religious side of the regime. Khalid
said the regime is still nervous about opposition Popular
Congress Party leader Hassan al Turabi, who originally
organized the National Islamic Front movement (the foundation
of the NCP) and still appeals to the true believers in the
NCP. Khalid observed that all of the oil money flowing into
Khartoum had done nothing to consolidate the regime and had
only provided financing for pay-offs.

ELECTIONS
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5. (C) When asked how committed the SPLM is to elections,
Khalid did not answer directly. He noted that the SPLM is
beyond challenge in the South and could form strong national
alliances with other marginalized groups such as the Beja in
the East, or even with middle of the road parties such as the
DUP (Mirghani faction). However, he said an alliance with
both is not possible because the Beja are against the
Khatemia Sufi sect (from which DUP/Mirghani hails). Khalid
predicted that Salva Kiir will not run for President. "The
CPA was created with John Garang in mind" and Salva is not
comfortable with northern politics, where he feels "like an
alien." Unlike Kiir who spends all of his time in
Juba where he is more comfortable, Garang could direct things
in the South from Khartoum and knew how to interact with
northern political parties. On a positive note, Khalid
predicted that if Salva gets a second term as GOSS President,
he is unlikely to stay on beyond that and "is not going to
become a Mugabe, or even a Museveni." CDA pointed out all of
the positive things that Kiir hasQQAQvide and rule policies of the North
or the divisive intrigues of some in the SPLM like Riek.

COMMENT
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6. (C) A former Foreign Minister who threw in his lot with
John Garang's rebels, Khalid's observations about
destabilizing elements in the South such as Riek Machar and
Paulino Matip are familiar and credible. Other observers
have suggested that Paulino Matip's ill-disciplined militia
may be responsible for the recent and very disturbing series
of armed robberies by groups of up to twenty men in Juba. If
this is true, the GOSS will need to act swiftly to bring
justice to those responsible, contain this serious security
threat (not just for NGOs, but also for the regime) and
either better integrate these soldiers into the SPLA or
disarm them. Khalid's comments regarding the SPLM convention
appear to be on the mark, but there are sure to be some
surprises and we don't discount that there may be a
significant adjustment in the SPLM leadership coming out of
the convention. He is one of many senior SPLM officials
uncomfortable about elections that could be easily
manipulated by the NCP.
FERNANDEZ