DANGEROUS LIES, DOUBLE-GAMING, AND DECEIT: INSIDE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000628

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/SPG, SE WILLIAMSON
NSC FOR BPITTMAN AND CHUDSON
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI KDEM SU
SUBJECT: DANGEROUS LIES, DOUBLE-GAMING, AND DECEIT: INSIDE
THE SPLM-NCP "PARTNERSHIP"

REF: A. KHARTOUM 617


B. KHARTOUM 604

Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. GNU Presidential Advisor and NCP loyalist
Ghazi Salah Eddin claims that the SPLM falsely accuses the
NCP of conniving tactics to undercut the SPLM and the CPA.
Salah Eddin complained about SPLM party disorganization,
echoed sentiments that SPLM party leadership is splintering,
and predicted that the May 2008 SPLM Convention will not
happen. Despite its internal problems, Salah Eddin said that
the SPLM is still the NCP's "first choice" for a partner in
the 2009 elections and confessed that the NCP is still trying
to woo the SPLM into a partnership agreement. He warned,
however, that if the SPLM chooses to play games with the NCP,
the NCP will play rough. The SPLM "underestimates the NCP's
ability to survive," he quipped. END SUMMARY.

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THE SPLM "SPORT" OF ACCUSING THE NCP
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2. (C) In a meeting with CDA Fernandez on 23 April, Salah
Eddin said the NCP "acted cautiously" and responded
"moderately" to the 12 April GoSS decision to postpone the
census in the South. Although the census is less critical
than the CPA issues of Abyei, the elections and the
referendum, the census is an "important issue", said Salah
Eddin and the NCP has been and is "interested in a census."
"We know the intricacies of the SPLM," said Salah Eddin and
"we are victims of their own internal problems." According to
Salah Eddin, making accusations against the NCP has become an
SPLM sport, such as GoSS accusations that census preparations
in the South were hindered by the NCP (i.e. - the prevention
of IDP returns, a shortage of questionnaires for the South,
etc.) in order to force an undercount of the South (ref B).


3. (C) As for the conduct of the census, Salah Eddin said
that there have only been minor problems so far. The issue
receiving the most media attention is the SPLM Deputy
Governor of Southern Kordofan's unilateral declaration that
SPLM members in Southern Kordofan should boycott the census
(septel). "This will result in an undercount of the SPLM's
own people in the Nuba Mountains," said Salah Eddin. "We've
asked Salva to talk to this guy, " he continued. "We hope
the problem will be resolved soon." (Note: On 23 April, the
Central Bureau of Statistics, which is responsible for census
enumeration in all Northern states, sent a team to Southern
Kordofan to help resolve this issue. Enumeration is moving
forward in Southern Kordofan without major problems.
According to the UN Population Fund, the only potential
problem of a boycott is in the Southern Kordofan capital of
Kadugli. End note.)


4. (C) CDA Fernandez asked the on-message Salah Eddin how the
NCP would respond if the GoSS rejects the census results even
if the census is conducted fairly and accurately. "We intend
to remain patient," said Salah Eddin, "and will calculate our
moves." The NCP is aware, as is the public, that based on
the pre-census mapping numbers, the South only resulted in 18
percent of the population of the country, far less than the
expansive expectations of many in the SPLM leadership. If the
official census numbers reveal a population percentage that
is anything less than what the South currently holds in the
National Assembly (34 percent) - and they will - then the NCP
is prepared to deal with further SPLM accusations on a
rational basis. "We could well decide, in consultation with
the SPLM, to keep the status quo," Ghazi noted, "but it will
be a card we will have to play no doubt." (Note: A 16 April
GoSS press statement somewhat foolishly foreshadows the GoSS'
move to reject the use of final census population figures for
re-configuring wealth and power-sharing arrangements. Such a
reconfiguration based on population numbers is stipulated by
the CPA. End note.)

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NCP SALIVATES OVER SPLM IN-FIGHTING
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5. (C) On the issue of elections, Salah Eddin claimed that he
is almost certain that the SPLM does not want them. The NCP
does want elections and thinks it is well-positioned to
succeed. He postulated that elections would further divide
what is already a fractured and confused SPLM. "We are
always trying to figure out what their real intentions are,"
said Salah Eddin. A first to confess this opinion, he doubts
that the SPLM Convention, planned for mid-May, will take
place. He said that many SPLMers close to GoSS President

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Salva Kiir, such as Deputy Secretary General of the SPLM for
the Southern Sector Anne Itto, failed to secure party
nominations. A convention, he said, means re-distribution of
power within the SPLM, which is very dangerous for the SPLM.
According to Salah Eddin the Convention will be a good
indicator of how the SPLM will conduct itself prior to and
during elections. (Note: In a recent meeting with SPLM
Deputy Secretary for the SPLM in the Northern Sector Yasser
Arman, Arman indicated that the SPLM Convention dates may
"slip" a little. End note.)


6. (C) Salah Eddin said the NCP prefers an alliance with the
SPLM ahead of 2009 elections. After all, it is legitimate
for parties to establish allies and build coalitions in
advance of elections, he said, and "we have told them they
are our first choice." Salah Eddin explained that it is
vital for the SPLM and the NCP to remain in partnership (and
in power) so as not to "lose" the CPA. "We are two parties
that are in agreement and we must stick together," he said.
According to Salah Eddin, the NCP has repeatedly asked the
SPLM if it would be interested in a partnership, but the
SPLM, and in particular Yasser Arman and Pagan Amun, are
"evasive" about the issue. Salah Eddin explained that it is
difficult to convince some SPLMers that a partnership is the
right thing because they think that the NCP is the
"arch-enemy." "What they underestimate," said Eddin, "is the
NCP's ability to survive." If the SPLM tries to gut the NCP
in elections (as would be Minister of Cabinet Affairs Pagan
Amum's preferred choice),said Salah Eddin, it is playing a
"dangerous game." "The NCP can also plot, " he warned. The
CDA stated that it is easy for the two parties to undermine
and destabilize one another. He warned that playing
double-games (i.e.- telling each other one thing and telling
the public and allies another) further aggravates the
situation.

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THE FEAR OF CHANGING AFRICAN BOUNDARIES
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7. (C) A well-read, big-picture social scientist and savvy
politician, Salah Eddin voiced concern over the prospect of
changing borders in Africa. "The world is being overtaken by
new problems such as rising food prices and shortages," said
Salah Eddin. Sudan is in a good position as a "powerhouse"
in the region to generate food. Even though he is a
unionist, Salah Eddin claimed he is "preparing himself for
separation" (of Sudan and in other areas of Sub-Saharan
Africa). He claimed that northern Sudanese have more in
common with citizens from the Horn of Africa (particularly
Eritreans and Ethiopians) than southern Sudanese. That being
said, he commented that the NCP "needs the SPLM until at
least 2011." He said that the NCP is going to try to help
the SPLM transform itself into more of a political party over
the coming years.


8. (C) Ghazi said that he expects, and counsels the party as
such, that many of Africa's colonial borders will not hold
because of increasing pressures to be caused by food and
energy problems. "The secession of South Sudan could be the
least of all our problems," he noted. He added that the SPLM
had been surprised when the Kenya crisis had caused a cut-off
of the South's lifeline to the outside world, "for once they
were happy to be part of a larger entity called Sudan, with a
pipeline and port all on Sudanese soil." He added that the
SPLM has not yet resolved its world-view of Sudan, "are they
a national party or only for Southerners?" Thoughtful
"Northerners" like Blue Nile Governor Agar, who is actually
an African Funj tribesman, know this dilemma but "no SPLM
leader who doesn't have a tribe in the South has much sway in
the party."

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COMMENT
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9. (C) The NCP is well aware of the divisions within the SPLM
(ref A) and often has cultivated these divisions. The
mis-steps over whether to go forward with the census in the
South provided yet another clue that Salva Kiir is facing
dissent within his own party - dissent which has its own
Southern, tribal dimension. As Salah Eddin notes, the SPLM
Convention, if it happens anytime soon, will be a litmus test
for how cohesive and strong the SPLM will be prior to and
during the elections. We can be sure that the NCP will
capitalize on the SPLM's leadership weaknesses (as it does
with other Northern parties in order to co-opt allies and
undercut opposition party strength). The SPLM may be more
open to an elections alliance or outright delay with the NCP

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if the NCP offers it a continuation of the current power and
wealth sharing formulas through 2011.
FERNANDEZ