Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08KHARTOUM501
2008-04-03 15:19:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Khartoum
Cable title:  

CHADIAN REBELS: WEST CAN FACILITATE DIALOGUE OR

Tags:  PREL PGOV CD SU 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO2473
OO RUEHROV
DE RUEHKH #0501/01 0941519
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 031519Z APR 08
FM AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0386
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHTRO/AMEMBASSY TRIPOLI IMMEDIATE 0323
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000501 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, AF/C, AND AF/SPG
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU
PARIS FOR KANEDA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV CD SU
SUBJECT: CHADIAN REBELS: WEST CAN FACILITATE DIALOGUE OR
ACCEPT WAR

REF: A. KHARTOUM 00385

B. KHARTOUM 00418

KHARTOUM 00000501 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: CDA Alberto Fernandez, Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) and (d)

-------
Summary
------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000501

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, AF/C, AND AF/SPG
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU
PARIS FOR KANEDA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV CD SU
SUBJECT: CHADIAN REBELS: WEST CAN FACILITATE DIALOGUE OR
ACCEPT WAR

REF: A. KHARTOUM 00385

B. KHARTOUM 00418

KHARTOUM 00000501 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: CDA Alberto Fernandez, Reason: Sections 1.4 (b) and (d)

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) One faction 'c2MwCQ$Q outbreak of a renewed offensive to topple him.
According to UFDD/F President Abdelwahid Aboud, the three
movements in the AN have settled on a joint structure, with
Mahamat Nouri as the political chief. He said the recent
attack on Ade was the opening salvo of a new campaign against
Deby's government and an attempt to demonstrate to the world
that the rebels are prepared to pursue a military solution
before the onset of the rainy season in the absence of a
serious peace process involving Western observers. The next
attack will strike "further" into Chad, said Aboud, but the
Alliance will negotiate with Deby until the last moment
before his Government is overthrown, "even if we receive the
call for dialogue when we're at the gates of N'djamena." End
summary.

--------------
The West's Choice: Dialogue or War
-------------- 5crb ^Bnce of Chadian armed groups remains
open to dialogue with the Chadian Government, but the West
must either facilitate negotiations with President Deby's
regime or accept the outbreak of a renewed rebel offensive to
topple him, President of the Union des Forces de la
Democratie and du Developpment/Fondamentale (UFDD/F)
Abdelwahid Aboud told Poloff during a meeting in Khartoum on
April 2. Though they have not made direct overtures to the
Chadian Government since the October 2007 Sirte Accord, the
National Alliance has expressed its willingness to negotiate
power sharing arrangements with Deby through the AU mediation
team of Libya and Congo. "The international community must
choose," said Aboud. "We don't want a civil war, but we will
have no other choice if Deby refuses to negotiate with us."

--------------
Ade Attack Just the Beginning
--------------


3. (C) Aboud characterized the recent attack on Ade as the

opening salvo of a new campaign against Deby's government and
an attempt to demonstrate to the world that rebels are
prepared to pursue a military solution in the absence of a
serious peace process. He said that the next rebel attack
will occur "further" inside Chad, mentioning Monga and Am
Timan specifically. Maintaining the status quo is
unacceptable, underscored Aboud, particularly in light of
Deby's actions since the last rebel offensive in February:
destruction of entire neighborhoods in N'djamena, persecution
and detention of opposition figures, and continued refusal to
participate in serious negotiations with the movements.


4. (C) The AN sees two potential scenarios in the weeks
before the onset of the rainy season: 1) A "roundtable" of
Chadian government representatives, the unarmed opposition,
and the rebel movements is convened with international
observers to forge agreement on sharing power in N'djamena
(with Deby remaining as head of state),on the creation of a
national army, and on a timeline for elections; or 2) The
Chadian opposition overthrows Deby by force, establishes a
transitional administration, and holds a "national forum" of
political stakeholders to prepare for UN-observed elections
within six months. While the AU could convene the
"roundtable" to provide a mechanism for negotiations between
Deby and the rebels, Aboud demanded that Western observers be
present as guarantors of an agreement.

--------------
National Alliance Fully United
--------------


5. (C) The three factions of the AN--Mahamat Nouri's UFDD,
Ahmed Soubiane's Front du Salut de la Republique (FSR),and
the UFDD/F are united in their analysis of the current

KHARTOUM 00000501 002.2 OF 002


situation and in their support for a peace process, claimed
Aboud, adding that both Nouri and Soubiane are now in the
field with their forces. The movements have agreed to Nouri
as the political head of the AN, to Aboud's top military
commander as the chief of the AN's armed wing, and to a
Soubiane loyalist as the commander of the "military police."
"All of our forces are in full coalition," said Aboud. He
acknowledged that Nouri has his own motives and political
ambitions. However, he predicted that Nouri would be obliged
to participate in negotiations because his movement is not
strong enough to overthrow Deby on its own.

--------------
Erdimi: A Special Case
--------------


6. (C) Timan Erdimi's Rally of Forces for Change (RFC)
remains outside the alliance and is a "special case," said
Aboud. He noted Erdimi's intense personal antipathy for Deby
and the other factions' reticence to replace one
Zaghawa-dominated dictatorship with another. Erdimi has lost
support within his movement in recent days, however, with the
defection of a sub-clan of the Zaghawa Bideyat, the Borogat,
to the AN. Aboud reported that Erdimi is now along the
Chad-Sudan border. (Note: Senior Assistant to the President
Minni Minawi, who is in frequent contact with Erdimi, told
Poloff by phone on April 1 that Erdimi left Khartoum for West
Darfur on March 30 or 31. End note.)

--------------
Open to Dialogue Until the Last Minute
--------------


7. (C) Poloff said that the U.S. will condemn future attempts
to change Deby's government by force and that the West is
likely to ostracize any regime that takes power at the behest
of Khartoum. Aboud said that the Chadian rebels' goals are
not a "mirage" to extend Sudan's influence but a genuine
attempt to institute true democracy in Chad, in place of a
patronage system administered by "illiterate" officials that
benefits only Deby loyalists and has turned the Chadian
military into a band of "thugs." He said that the rebels
will halt any offensive if given the opportunity for credible
negotiations, "even if we receive the call for dialogue when
we're at the gates of N'djamena."

--------------
Comment
--------------


8. (C) While Aboud's UFDD/F is often viewed as a junior
partner in the AN, UN officials and other observers in Sudan
estimate its force strength as roughly equivalent to that of
the other two movements. Aboud appears to be the most open
to negotiations among any of the AN leaders, having made
several appeals to the Embassy over the last six
weeks--either directly or through interlocutors--for a
constructive political track with Western backing (reftels).
End comment.


9. (U) Tripoli minimize considered.
FERNANDEZ