NAFIE COMPLAINS OF PERCEPTION PROBLEM IN DARFUR

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 000474

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AND AF/SPG, NEA
FOR DAS GGRAY
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - GARBLED TEXT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU
SUBJECT: NAFIE COMPLAINS OF PERCEPTION PROBLEM IN DARFUR


Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: The situation in Darfur is better than what
is being reported, Presidential Advisor and NCP leader Nafie
Ali Nafie told CDA Fernandez during a meeting March 31.
Nafie blamed international NGOs for distorting the image of
what is happening in Darfur said that if the international
community would only put pressure on the rebels, there would
be peace in Darfur. Nafie claimed that JEM is the only
remaining rebel movement with any power and that SLA/AW is
now quiet in Jebel Marra while Abdelwahid pursues talks with
the UN/AU mediation. However Nafie accused Minni Minawi of
not abiding by agreements and said that Chad must be given
"support" so that President Deby will no longer have to rely
on the Zaghawa. He viewed Libya as crucial to the Darfur
peace process because Qadhafi is "influential on Idriss and
the rebels" but admitted End summary.


2. (C) Presidential Advisor Dr. Nafie Ali Nafie claimed that
the situation in Darfur is "better than what is being
reported" and that international NGOs with "political
motivations" are creating a distorted image of what is
happening in Darfur. "They should be more balanced,"
complained Nafie, "but they write what they think will be
accepted." CDA acknowledged that the situation in Darfur is
different now than three years ago, but pointed out that the
GOS needs to develop a strategy for breaking its bad image,
including doing everything possible to assist IDPs who blame
Khartoum for what has happened in Darfur. Further, CDA
pointed out that despite the fact that UNAMID is having
deployment problems due to logistical challenges, the GOS
needs to be seen doing everything possible to facilitate
deployment. He also pointed to disproportional attacks by the
Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in February in West Darfur. While
these were in response to a JEM rebel offensive, they caused
massive new IDPs and loss of innocent life. And they returned
the ugly violence of Darfur to the headlines.


3. (C) Nafie acknowledged that any mistake made by the GOS
will be magnified. "We must control the army and the PDF,
and we must make efforts at peace," he exclaimed. "You may
not think so but we are working to rein them in and there is
internal discussion and pressure to quietly discipline those
who exceed orders." However Nafie complained that when JEM
took control of Sirba, Silea, and Abu Sirouj by force with
the support of Chad, no one in the international community
complained (NOTE: This is true). "Are we wrong to take back
territory that was taken from us by force?" Urging balanced
criticism of the belligerents, Nafie said that his government
must exchange information with UNAMID so that there will be a
more accurate picture of events on the ground. "They need to
be told what is going on, so that they know who should be
forced to change their behavior." He warned that JEM was
planning new attacks, including deep into Kordofan and these
would be dealt with ruthlessly.


4. (C) Nafie urged that if the U.S. would only put pressure
on the rebels, there would be peace in Darfur. He
characterized JEM as the "only remaining rebel group with any
real power actively fighting," and suggested that the U.S.
should be talking to Khalil Ibrahim to push him toward peace
talks. Nafie observed that "Abdelwahid's people in Eastern
Jebel Marra are quiet," there is an informal cease-fire in
that area and that Abdelwahid himself is now more open to
talks with the UN/AU negotiators. "However some people who
have signed agreements are not abiding by them," said Nafie,
in reference to Senior Presidential Advisor and SLM leader
Minni Minawi. Nafie asked rhetorically "how long should we
be tolerant of these gangs who rob aid convoys and create
instability?" and observed that "Minawi's heart is with JEM
and President Deby." Turning to the issue of Zaghawa tribal
loyalty and President Deby, Nafie suggested that if Deby were
"given some support" to help him out from under the pressure
he is under from his own Zaghawa tribe, he might be more
committed to peace with Sudan. "We don't have any special
interest in the Chadian rebels," claimed Nafie. CDA Fernandez
answered that, while we understand the long history of Chad
and Sudan interfering in each others affairs, the fall of
Deby at the hands of Khartoum-supported rebels is
unacceptable to us. Any chance of an American-Sudanese
dialogue will end with such an unfortunate event. Nafie said
that the Sudanese Government understood this.


5. (C) Pressed on regional issues, Nafie admitted that
Libya's role in Darfur is underestimated, "both with their
relationship with Deby and with many of the Zaghawa rebel
groups." It is the Zaghawa who militarily lead the rebellion
in Darfur. When asked about Libyan military support for the
rebels, Nafie responded, "here I will be less forthcoming,
but I don't agree with anything you have said about this
matter." He added that Libya's public rhetoric don't always
match their private actions. "We would welcome you talking
quietly to the Libyans about this," he added. MFA U/S Siddiq
was less coy in an earlier meeting admitting that Libya is
the main source of weapons for Darfur's rebels - through Deby
and directly. Siddiq also asked for quiet American diplomacy
with the Libyans to dry up these sources.


6. (C) Nafie admitted that Sudan was worried about the lack
of progress on the peace talks front. Rebel disunity actually
works in their favor, "it keeps the pot boiling" and the
rebels in play with the constant possibility of violence by
the rebels and then an overreaction by the Sudanese
Government. "We are the ones who feel hemmed in, we want to
end this but others want to keep it going." He noted the
"bandits and hijackers" plaguing Darfur, these are your
rebels, he snorted.


7. (C) Comment: The NCP regime wants to improve its image,
but it remains a question whether this brutal regime will
actually be willing to improve its behavior. That a regime
"hard-liner" would acknowledge openly that the regime needs
to control the army and the popular defense forces is
undoubtedly meant for consumption by the US in advance of
possible talks on the bilateral relationship. Nafie's
observations on the Zaghawa are more candid and accurate,
however. It's true that Deby would not be under so much
pressure from his own tribe if he did not have Chadian rebel
forces bearing down on him, but then again Sudan has been
laying on the pressure by arming the Chadian rebels. He was
also honest about Minnawi's "disloyalty" and about Libyan
arms for Zaghawa rebels such as SLA/Unity. Nafie seems to
believe that if Sudan can secure an agreement from Deby to
marginalize and cut off JEM, it will face little resistance
from rebels in Darfur and may be able to make headway on a
peace agreement that would satisfy the international
community - and the U.S. End comment.
FERNANDEZ