SUDANESE PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR WARNED ON SUPPORTING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000409

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON AND AF/SPG, AF/C
NSC FOR HUDSON AND PITTMAN
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU
PARIS FOR KANEDA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS SU CD
SUBJECT: SUDANESE PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR WARNED ON SUPPORTING
CHADIAN REBELS

REF: A. KHARTOUM 397

B. KHARTOUM 385

Classified By: Charge D'Affaires Alberto M. Fernandez, for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Warned about continued interference in
Chad on March 17, Sudanese Presidential Advisor Mustafa Osman
Ismail said that Sudan was ready for immediate monitoring of
its border with Chad, denied that Sudan supports Chadian
rebels and said that the U.S. should press President Deby to
halt his own intervention in Darfur. CDA Fernandez countered
that the U.S. knows that Sudan is supporting the rebels and
warned that if Deby falls and chaos results, the West
inevitably will hold Sudan directly responsible. End summary.

The West Will Blame Sudan
--------------

2. (C) On March 17, CDA Fernandez met with Sudanese
Presidential Advisor Dr. Mustafa Osman Ismail and bluntly
urged that Sudan desist from providing support to Chadian
rebels that are seeking to overthrow the government of
Chadian President Idriss Deby. The CDA warned that there are
clear indications of new attempts to overthrow President Deby
in the next few weeks. The result could be the outbreak of
conflict among the competing rebel groups. Were this to
happen, the West would blame Sudan. While the United States
understands that both Chad and Sudan are interfering in each
others affairs, Deby's fall would be disastrous leading to
civil conflict and a resulting humanitarian crisis. CDA told
Dr. Mustafa "we don't think you are supporting the Chadian
rebels, we know you are" and such support risks jeopardizing
a potential US-Sudan dialogue before it even gets started.

We,re Not Supporting Rebels, But If We Were ...
-------------- --------------

3. (C) Dr. Osman denied that Khartoum is supporting the
Chadian rebels. He agreed that Deby, who he noted had come
to power with Sudan's help and described as a devout Muslim,
is the best option available for Chad right now. Sudan,s
problem with Deby, Osman continued, is the cross-border
intervention in Darfur by Deby,s allies in the JEM rebel
movement. Osman recommended that the U.S. instead advise
Deby to have his proxies stay out of Darfur.


4. (C) Osman contended that if Sudan were supporting the
rebels in Chad, it would provide them with antiaircraft
weapons to combat government helicopters. Sudan has no
interest in removing Deby from power. CDA countered that the
U.S. knows that Sudan is providing support to the rebels in
Chad, "and half of Sudan knows this too". Rebels have been
re-equipped in Sudan and already have moved across the border
into Chad. Osman countered that in Dakar, Deby had charged
that on the same day that the bilateral agreement was signed,
rebels crossed the border into Chad from Sudan. Osman noted
EUFOR had denied Deby,s charges. Should the U.S. believe
Deby or should the U.S. believe EUFOR, he asked rhetorically.
He noted that US intelligence has been wrong before in such
cases, in Sudan and in the region, mentioned the Khartoum
pharmaceutical plant attacked by cruise missles in 1998.
Osman continued that what is needed on the border are
monitors from the EU and AU, not just from Chad and Sudan.
"Tell Washington that we are ready for the border to be
monitored immediately," he implored, "is Deby ready for
that?"

All Things Are Not Equal
--------------

5. (C) CDA Fernandez agreed on the immediate need to monitor
the Chad-Sudan border. He said that both sides have signed
the Dakar agreement and that the U.S. knows that both sides
are breaking that agreement. The U.S. is pressuring Deby as
well to hold up his end of the bargain. But the situations
are not the same. While the JEM wants to overthrow the
government in Khartoum, in reality it only is capable of
causing trouble in Darfur. On the other hand, Deby is much
weaker than is President Bashir. There is a possibility that
Deby could fall, and if that happens, the CDA repeated, the
West will hold Sudan responsible. CDA added that while
monitoring the border was essential, Chadian rebels had
already been resupplied by Khartoum and moved across the
border.


6. (C) Osman once more denied that Sudan is assisting the

KHARTOUM 00000409 002 OF 002


Chadian rebels and contende6QKhartoum stands willing to permit an international force
to monitor the order. Deby,s problems are the result of his
own violence and corruption, not anything Sudan is doing. If
Deby is too weak to survive, Sudan should not be held
responsible. "If President Al-Bashir held on to power because
of Chadian or Egyptian mercenaries, we would ask him to
leave. Deby is so weak that he holds on to power solely
through Sudanese Zaghawa rebel commanders," he claimed. The
CDA responded that while we may not disagree about Deby, the
results of his overthrow would have a tremendously negative
effect on our dialogue and relationship.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) We will continue to demarche the Sudanese regarding
their ill-advised support to Chadian rebels. We have made
the point forcefully that if Sudan further destabilizes Chad,
the chances of any improvement in US-Sudan relations are
greatly diminished even if there is progress on UNAMID
deployment and CPA implementation. In addition to pressing
the Sudanese regime, more can perhaps be done with the
Chadian opposition present in Sudan. Given Chadian rebel
leader Timane Erdimi's continued presence in Khartoum, we can
weigh in with him as well on US opposition to further rebel
incursions into Chad, advise him to negotiate with President
Deby, and let him know we will hold him accountable for the
actions of his soldiers. In any case, the Sudanese have now
been warned on Chad repeatedly over the past two months. If
they go forward with this misadventure and there are
consequences, they have no one to blame but themselves. End
comment.
FERNANDEZ