PCP LEADER TURABI SAYS SUDAN REQUIRES A NATIONAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001704

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG
NSC FOR HUDSON AND PITTMAN
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AF/SUDAN
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2013
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPKO AU UNSC SU QA
SUBJECT: PCP LEADER TURABI SAYS SUDAN REQUIRES A NATIONAL
APPROACH TO RESOLVE NATIONAL PROBLEMS

Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Popular Congress Party (PCP)leader Hassan
Turabi dismissed the Sudan People,s Initiative (SPI) as
lacking any real substance. Turabi argued that Darfur can
only be resolved by a truly national forum in which all
parties are equally represented and that addresses national
issues holistically, but that SPI is being manipulated by the
NCP. Turabi urged that the United States treat Sudan,s
problems as part of a whole, rather than try to deal with
each in isolation. End summary.

U.S. Needs to Focus on the Whole, Not the Parts
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2. (C) On November 20, CDA Fernandez met with PCP leader
Hassan Turabi and PCP Foreign Relations Secretary Bashir Adam
Rahma at Turabi,s home. Turabi urged the U.S. not to focus
solely on one aspect of the Sudan situation (e.g., CPA
implementation, elections, Darfur) to the exclusion of the
others. The CDA agreed, saying that that all of the parts
need to move together. For example, the 2009 national
elections are not just a north-south CPA issue but a national
challenge. If the elections fail in Darfur, they will fail
nationally. Turabi went on to argue that Sudan needs a truly
federal system. A centralized state cannot be a democracy,
he said. He is concerned that the NCP will make a political
deal with the SPLM to share the spoils and ignore Darfur.
"Without Darfur, it is hard for the NCP to retain power in
the North."

SPI a Shadow of What is Required
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3. (C) CDA asked Turabi for his sense of the SPI session in
Kenana. Turabi was dismissive of SPI, arguing that while
resolving the Darfur conflict requires a truly national
forum, the National Congress Party (NCP) is stage managing
the SPI for its own interests. For example, he said that the
tribal leaders supposed to represent the people of Darfur at
the SPI had been hand-picked by the NCP. 70 percent of the
participants were from the NCP, and the remaining 30 percent
ranged from mild to moderate critics of the regime. Turabi
said that all of Sudan,s opposition parties have been
seeking a joint initiative on Darfur, but that President
Bashir had been uninterested before July 14 (the date on
which ICC prosecutor Ocampo requested an arrest warrant
against Bashir.) Turabi argued that in a truly national
forum, all parties would be represented equally, with the
forum presidency rotating among them. They would jointly
identify and prioritize the key issues. As it is, the NCP
alone controls all the working committees in the SPI and
determines the results.


4. (C) Turabi continued that, although others can help, only
the Sudanese themselves can settle their own problems. He
observed that the Qataris, who will host the next session in
Doha, are woefully uninformed about the issues involved in
the conflict, and that they need to educate themselves.
Their role will be limited to hosting and paying for the Doha
meeting. They do have the advantage of being viewed as
relatively neutral, unlike the Arab League, which has lost
all credibility in the eyes of the Darfur rebels, according
to Turabi.


5. (C) CDA Fernandez wondered whether the Doha conference
actually would take place. Turabi said that the Qatari,s
need to approach Abdul Wahid Nur, as well as the Justice and
Equality Movement, to bring them into the process. The real
work needs to be accomplished before the conference begins,
he observed. The Qataris mean well, and are willing to throw
money at the problem, but they are naive about Darfur, and
will be tempted to focus on the conference itself rather than
the real work of peace-making, opined Turabi.

Who,s Fooling Who?
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6. (C) Turabi dismissed President Bashir,s announcement at
the conclusion of the Kenana session as the government,s
&20th cease-fire declaration.8 CDA Fernandez noted that
Bashir declared that the cease-fire was to be &immediate and
unconditional,8 but that other NCP officials had immediately
begun adding caveats. He wondered, was Bashir misleading his
audience, or was Bashir being misled by those around him?
Turabi added that it was only shortly after his cease-fire
announcement, that Bashir had belligerently declared that the
Western powers and the ICC were &under his feet.8

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7. (C) The Charge remarked that Bashir,s concluding SPI
address seemed disconnected from reality. Turabi agreed and
said that others at the conference felt the same. He said
that officials in the Umma Party had told him they were
&disappointed.8 Umma's participation in the SPI is
threatening to split the party and Sadiq al-Mahdi (who is
also Turabi's brother in law) is ready to bolt from the
initiative. Turabi again dismissed the entire SPI exercise as
lacking any real substance, saying that the government failed
to offer the people of Darfur anything of real consequence.
The NCP had attempted to woo Turabi's own PCP into the SPI
process but in the end, Turabi decided that more could be
gained by staying out - he feels vindicated by the results to
date.

Comment
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8. (C) Turabi is correct about at least one thing: Sudan,s
various issues (CPA, elections, Darfur) are all of a piece
and cannot be resolved in isolation. All are symptoms,
rather than the underlying malady, that resides in Khartoum.
Without a comprehensive and coordinated approach to treating
the illness at the Center, these symptoms will continue to
fester.
FERNANDEZ