NORTHERN UGANDA: LRA PEACE PROCESS UNCERTAINTIES

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 000483

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/18/2018
TAGS: PHUM PREL PGOV UG SU CG
SUBJECT: NORTHERN UGANDA: LRA PEACE PROCESS UNCERTAINTIES

REF: KAMPALA 1779

Classified By: P/E Chief Kathleen FitzGibbon for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).


1. (S) Summary: Potential changes in the Lord's Resistance
Army (LRA) negotiating team could delay or jeopardize the
signing of the Final Peace Agreement (FPA),currently set for
April 10 and 14. Splits along ethnic and regional lines
within the LRA delegation are now out in the open. Several
sources are reporting that LRA leader Joseph Kony was
concerned the signing ceremony might be a trap. He
reportedly was considering several options regarding the
signature and implementation of the agreement. The GOU would
like the current LRA team to remain in place because of the
potential disruptions and delays that could be caused by a
new delegation. The Government will wait to see what events
materialize over the next week and continue its efforts to
woo defectors. End Summary.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LRA DELEGATION CHANGES ON THE HORIZON
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


2. (S) Kony allegedly plans to change members of his
delegation, possibly this week. We have heard several
explanations for the move, from a number of independent
sources close to the peace process. First, several separate
LRA members in the bush told us that the Holy Spirit informed
Kony that the current LRA delegation leader, David Matsanga,
was trying to kill him. Second, Kony was told by his own
intelligence network that Matsanga was seen in the company of
"two white men" in Juba. (Note: The GOU said the sources
identified U.S. Senior Advisor for Conflict Resolution Tim
Shortley as one of the men. End Note.) One of Kony's
informants reportedly claimed that the meeting was to arrange
Kony's assassination at the signing ceremony. Third, some
elements in the diaspora may have told Kony that Matsanga and
delegation member Santa Okot were "eating" money from the
process.


3. (C) Delegation leader Matsanga will likely be dropped
because of his untrustworthiness, according to Okot and GOU
security officials. Kony plans to name a new 8-member
delegation consisting of diaspora elements, primarily based
in Kenya. The likely new leader might be Obonyo Olweny, who
served previously as the LRA spokesman in Nairobi. Fifteen
people from northern Uganda might also be named as
"back-benchers." It is not clear if he will keep some
members of the current delegation.

- - - - - - - - -
LRA TEAM DIVIDED
- - - - - - - - -


4. (C) Santa Okot called P/E Chief on April 4 complaining
bitterly about Matsanga's rudeness and self-interested
behavior. She warned P/E Chief not to believe anything
Matsanga said. Okot claimed that Matsanga did not talk to
Kony, as he told international observers. She said that the
LRA delegation did not meet Kony at Rikwangba, but Matsanga
forced them to lie about it. Matsanga's "lies" about contact
with Kony had put the Acholi members of the LRA delegation in
hot water with the Acholi leaders from northern Uganda,
according to Okot. The Acholi leaders complained about being
stranded in Juba because Matsanga had lied about the signing
date. She said Matsanga was manipulating the Mediator and
the Ugandan Government for personal financial gain. Okot
stated that Matsanga was openly rude to the Acholi members of
the delegation and she apologized for Matsanga's insulting
behavior toward P/E Chief and others in Juba.


5. (C) Government peace team members tell us that Kony
trusts Acholi members Yusuf Adek, Willy Oryem, and Santa Okot
because they are viewed as serving the interests of northern
Ugandans. Okot stated that Kony has told the three not to
pay attention to Matsanga, who is from eastern Uganda.

- - - - - - - - -
KONY'S NEXT MOVES
- - - - - - - - -


6. (S) Kony appears to be getting a significant amount of
information about the peace process, not all of it accurate.
The Government of Southern Sudan Mediator, Riek Machar,
provided him with a new Thuraya satellite telephone,
delivered by the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA).
(Note: The new number is: 8821643335793 End Note.) Machar
allegedly held a two-hour conversation with Kony late last
week in which Machar claimed to have persuaded Kony to sign
the agreement, according to the GOU. Okot said that Kony
reportedly wanted to see the peace agreement because he did

KAMPALA 00000483 002 OF 002


not trust Matsanga.


7. (S) Concerned about being double-crossed and/or
assassinated, Kony reportedly came up with several options,
according to GOU sources within the LRA. LRA members and
supporters have different opinions about the way forward.
One camp argued that Kony should disrupt the signing ceremony
"in a spectacular way." This would entail shooting down the
aircraft bringing in delegates to witness the signing
ceremony, to teach the Acholis, who turned their back on
Kony, a lesson. Colonel Bwone Lubwa alluded to this
capability when he told us about the "missiles" that Kony
keeps with him when he travels.


8. (S) A second camp argued that Kony should let the signing
ceremony go forward, send the sick and injured among the LRA
to the assembly area, and then move back to Central African
Republic (CAR). Members of this camp argue that sending
useless forces to Rikwangba would buy the LRA leader more
time if it looked like he was implementing the agreement.
They argue that Kony could afford to send the sick, injured,
and tired for demobilization because he had augmented his
forces with some 200-400 Chadians from Mahamat Nouri's group.


9. (S) The third camp, which the Ugandan External Security
Services (ESO) claims consists of Khartoum's agents, argued
that Kony needed to sign the peace agreement to enhance Riek
Machar's international and domestic credibility, particularly
within the Equatoria regions of Sudan.

- - - - - - -
GOU'S ACTIONS
- - - - - - -


10. (S) Meanwhile, the GOU appears to have cut a deal with
former LRA delegation leader Martin Ojul, lawyer Crispus
Ayena, and others, who are staying at the Fairway Hotel in
Kampala at GOU expense. Ojul told P/E Chief that he would
expose what has been going on behind-the-scenes in the Juba
process "at the appropriate time."


11. (S) Bureaucratic infighting between the ESO and the
Chief of Military Intelligence (CMI),Col. Leopold Kyanda,
has hampered plans to extract LRA defectors. The Deputy
Director for ESO, Emmy Allio, told us that he had to go
directly to Minister of Security Amama Mbabazi for funds to
assist in the operations. Meanwhile, CMI has restricted
access to former defectors and cut off their telephone time.
This has prevented them from encouraging their friends in the
bush to come out. It also has alarmed some LRA members by
creating concerns that if they defect, they will not be free.


12. (C) The GOU's chief negotiators, Ruhakana Rugunda and
Henry Okello Oryem, told P/E Chief that they were exasperated
by the potential change in the leadership of the LRA
delegation. They said the GOU would wait out the week to see
where the process would be going. Rugunda encouraged
international observers to work to keep the LRA delegation
intact to prevent any more delays.

- - - - -
COMMENT
- - - - -


13. (C) It is not clear if the April 10 signing date for
Kony will hold. We are hearing that the date could continue
to slip. The GOU continues to demonstrate patience, but at
some point the GOU will assert, or seek concurrence, that the
Juba process is finished.
BROWNING