NORTHERN UGANDA: GOVERNMENT VIEWS ON PROGRESS AT

C O N F I D E N T I A L KAMPALA 000284

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2018
TAGS: PHUM PREL PGOV UG SU
SUBJECT: NORTHERN UGANDA: GOVERNMENT VIEWS ON PROGRESS AT
JUBA; REPORTED LRA ATTACKS


Classified By: P/E Chief Kathleen FitzGibbon for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).


1. (C) Summary. The Government of Uganda appears to be
taking steps to increase pressure on the Lord's Resistance
Army (LRA) and the Government of Southern Sudan mediator,
Riek Machar. The GOU's lead negotiator, Minister of Internal
Affairs Ruhakana Rugunda informed donors on February 13 that
the GOU would not renew the Cessation of Hostilities
Agreement (CHA) when it expires on February 29 because it
expected a permanent agreement on a cease-fire. Meanwhile,
exaggerated Ugandan press reports blamed the LRA for several
attacks in southern Sudan and alleged that the LRA was moving
into Central African Republic. End Summary.


2. (SBU) On February 13, the Government of Uganda
negotiating team, led by Minister of Internal Affairs
Ruhakana Rugunda and Minister of State for International
Affairs Henry Okello Oryem told donors that definite progress
was being made at the Juba peace talks. Rugunda stated that
the GOU would not extend the Cessation of Hostilities after
February 29, saying that there should be a cease-fire signed
before then. He explained that a final peace agreement
probably would not be signed on February 29, but expected
that the one could be reached "around that date" or that at
least, substantial progress made. Rugunda and Oryem advised
that the cease-fire monitoring team would need to be
"stronger and better" than the existing Cessation of
Hostilities Monitoring Team (CHMT).


3. (C) The GOU was angered earlier in the week when the
Government of Southern Sudan mediator, Riek Machar, announced
the talks would resume on February 13 without consulting the
GOU. Oryem told P/E Chief on February 12 that the GOU felt
"jerked around" by the mediator and the LRA with frequent
accommodation of the LRA delegation. Rugunda and Oryem
initially said the GOU would not return to Juba until
February 22, but they have since changed position and
promised to return on February 18. The LRA is traveling to
Rikwangba on February 16 and 17 to share with Kony the
negotiated sections of the agreement, including the
Accountability and Reconciliation mechanism, which is the
heart of a peace deal. Rugunda has warned the LRA delegation
not to allow internal divisions and ethnic rivalries on the
team to undermine the negotiations. He was referring to the
dismissal/resignation of Crispus Ayena, a lawyer on the LRA
team, and reports that the ethnic Acholi and Langi members of
the team were at odds.


4. (SBU) Ugandan journalists are running with exaggerated
reports of LRA incidents in southern Sudan or wrongly
attributing them to the LRA, without investigation, such as
the incident at Kajo-Keiji. Danish Refugee Council and U.N.
Security officials reported an attack near Kajo-Keiji that
killed 36 on February 4. The SPLA said that only 4 people
were killed. Local Ugandan journalists picked up AFP
reporting on the same attack that claimed that 136 people had
been killed in a raid conducted by 300 LRA. Ugandan military
officials privately dismissed the AFP account, which would
have meant virtually all of the LRA's fighting force would
have been involved in the attacks. LRA defectors also
questioned the credibility of the AFP report, saying that an
LRA movement in that area would not involve 300 individuals.


5. (C) Other incidents, including a report of 800 suspected
LRA near Nabiapai, also appear exaggerated, if not highly
probable. Two road ambushes on February 10 have been
attributed to the LRA. Ugandan military spokesman Paddy
Ankunda, who was a member of the Juba peace delegation in
2006, said that only one of the attacks might have been LRA.
He said the Ugandan military could not substantiate the
report that 400 LRA were moving to the Central African
Republic. Ankunda also noted that the information came from
a single source. MONUC is skeptical of this report, citing
the lack of other indicators from observers in the region.


6. (C) Comment: The GOU continues to negotiate at Juba
with the objective of getting a deal on paper. The GOU is
skeptical, however, of the LRA delegation's ability to
convince Joseph Kony to accept and implement an agreement.
Inaccurate press reporting and potential misinformation about
security incidents attributed to the LRA has the potential to
complicate the Juba talks. Some of the attacks, similar to
the slew of security incidents attributed to the LRA from
December 2006 to January 2007, could be perpetrated by any
number of armed individuals and groups in the region.
BROWNING