Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08KAMPALA1545
2008-11-25 11:54:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kampala
Cable title:  

NORTHERN UGANDA: RUMORS OF NINE-MONTH EXTENSION

Tags:  PGOV PREL PHUM CG UG SU 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO9064
RR RUEHRN RUEHROV
DE RUEHKM #1545/01 3301154
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 251154Z NOV 08
FM AMEMBASSY KAMPALA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0930
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 001545 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/18
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM CG UG SU
SUBJECT: NORTHERN UGANDA: RUMORS OF NINE-MONTH EXTENSION
FOR SPECIAL ENVOY UNTRUE

REF: KAMPALA 1469

Classified By: P/E Chief Kathleen FitzGibbon for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KAMPALA 001545

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/18
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM CG UG SU
SUBJECT: NORTHERN UGANDA: RUMORS OF NINE-MONTH EXTENSION
FOR SPECIAL ENVOY UNTRUE

REF: KAMPALA 1469

Classified By: P/E Chief Kathleen FitzGibbon for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d
).


1. (C) Summary: Ugandan Government and United Nations
officials believe that Government of Southern Sudan Mediator
Riek Machar is behind persistent rumors that U.N. Special
Envoy Chissano's mandate will be extended for another nine
months. Chissano told President Museveni that he did not
believe that Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) leader Joseph Kony
is interested in a peace deal and that he would not stay
beyond the end of his mandate on December 31, according to
Minister of State for International Relations Henry Okello
Oryem and Chissano's Kampala Office Director, Warner Ten
Kate. Chissano will only agree to stay on if there is a
genuine chance that the peace deal will. He will not stay on
if Kony's signature is based merely on self-preservation.
Chissano there insists that Kony's signature will have to be
accompanied by another concrete gesture. Our contacts in
Kampala allege that it is Machar who wants a perpetuation of
the peace process for his own financial and political
benefit. LRA delegation leader David Matsanga may be
encouraging Kony to sign to keep Chissano engaged in the
process and to protect Kony from potential attack. Kony told
one of his confidantes that he had been informed that
"America and the Ugandan Peoples Defense Forces (UPDF)" were
going to kill him. We suspect that Kony could be maneuvered
into signing the Final Peace Agreement (FPA) with no
intention of implementing it in order to buy time for
himself, Matsanga, and Machar. End Summary.


2. (C) P/E Chief met with Warner Ten Kate on November 18 to
discuss persistent rumors about an extension of Chissano's
mandate. Ten Kate said that Chissano does not believe that
Kony is serious about the FPA and is happy to have his
mandate expire on December 31. Chissano will only stay on if
there is real and meaningful progress on the peace process.
According to Ten Kate, neither he nor Chissano believe that
Kony will sign the FPA and that if he does, Kony is doing so
to buy time. Ten Kate speculated that Machar, possibly

together with Matsanga, are behind the rumors because they
stood the most to gain from a continuation of the peace
process. He added that it is possible that Kony has been
persuaded to go along with this last attempt to sign the FPA
to buy time. If Kony signs, then the agreement calls for a
nine-month implementation phase, which would be overseen by
Machar. The FPA tasks Machar to set up the technical
secretariat for the Joint Liaison Group (JLG),which would be
housed in Kampala. During the November 5 Munyonyo
Conference, Matsanga demanded that the GOU provide a list of
the things it had done to comply with the agreement (Reftel).
He also may have forecast Kony's intentions when he stated
that Kony could sign the peace agreement and the details
could be worked out in the JLG. This could essentially
re-open negotiations on the LRA's obligations, particularly
on assembly and Kony's surrender to Ugandan authorities.
(Comment: The FPA lays out a clear timetable and the
parties' obligations. End Comment.) Machar also would be
responsible for seeking donor funding for the implementation
of the FPA.


3. (C) Ugandan Government officials believe that Machar is
the driving force behind the push to get Kony to sign the
FPA, but is doing so only for personal financial and
political reasons. Henry Okello Oryem told P/E Chief on
November 20 that Machar needs money and a success to enhance
his position within the GOSS and Sudan Peoples Liberation
Movement (SPLM). Oryem said that Chissano clearly told
President Museveni that he did not wish to stay on beyond
December, but would only be willing to do so if Kony did a
dramatic about face and took concrete steps to demonstrate
his seriousness about the process. Chissano also would not
consider a Kony signature on the FPA by itself as a sign of
sincerity, according to Oryem. Previously, the Ugandan
Government would only support an extension of Chissano's
mandate for a short time, perhaps 3-6 months, to wrap up the
process "so that another phase of the process could begin."


4. (C) Ten Kate also said that the biggest danger for
Chissano is an insincere signature by Kony or that Kony sends
another officer to sign on his behalf. Kony would have once
again raised public expectations with no intention of
delivering, according to Ten Kate. The FPA requires the LRA
to fully assemble at Rikwangba and release women, children,
and injured fighters, the GOU to establish accountability and
reconciliation mechanisms and request that the UNSC adopt a
resolution deferring International Criminal Court (ICC)
warrants, and the Chief Mediator to establish the JLG and
Oversight Forum. These steps must be taken during a 30-day
transition period after signing, with an option for a 30-day

KAMPALA 00001545 002 OF 002


extension, if needed. Ten Kate doubts the LRA will live up
to its commitment to assemble within the transition period.


5. (C) Oryem and lead GOU negotiator, Ruhakana Rugunda, are
concerned that Machar had unilaterally extended the life of
the Cessation of Hostilities Monitoring Team (CHMT) despite
there being no Cessation of Hostilities Agreement in effect.
They also are concerned that Machar is talking to the
Government of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). They
said that Machar, and likely Matsanga, met with DRC President
Kabila in Nairobi and made arrangements for LRA "safe
passage" to Rikwangba without consulting them.


6. (C) Jolly Okot, a Kony confidante, told P/E Chief that
Kony said that the "Americans and UPDF" are trying to kill
him. Okot does not believe that Kony wants to return to
northern Uganda, even if he signs the peace agreement. Gulu
District Resident District Commissioner Walter Ochora claims
that his sources say that Kony has been warned that a
military operation against him is likely if he does not sign
the FPA. Ochora believes that Machar, Matsanga, and the LRA
diaspora elements in Nairobi, Kenya are warning Kony that he
has to attend the meeting at Rikwangba to stave off "Plan B"
(Ugandan military operations).

- - - - - - - - -
MEETING LOGISTICS
- - - - - - - - -


7. (SBU) On November 20, Ten Kate reported that the
November 27 meeting date could be in jeopardy because Machar
has not sent a budget to donors in Kampala. Denmark's funds
for the food delivery, which is separate from the logistics,
came through on November 18 and is enough time for CARITAS to
make it to Rikwangba. In addition, Kampala-based donors are
still scrambling to find a mechanism to fund logistical
needs. As a result, Ten Kate is highly concerned that the
meeting date could slip into December.

- - - -
COMMENT
- - - -


8. (C) The peace process is again lurching forward to
another potential milestone or failure. We share the
skepticism of our contacts about Kony's intentions and
believe that even if he signs the FPA, Kony is not serious
about peace and would do so only as a means of continued
self-preservation. If this is the case, the GOU recommends
that a strongly worded press statement reminding the parties
of their obligations could be useful.
BROWNING