ABBAS CALLS FOR ELECTIONS "IF DIALOGUE FAILS";

C O N F I D E N T I A L JERUSALEM 002112

SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE, NSC FOR ABRAMS/PASCUAL/RAMCHAND

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2018
TAGS: KWBG PREL PTER IS PGOV
SUBJECT: ABBAS CALLS FOR ELECTIONS "IF DIALOGUE FAILS";
HAMAS REJECTS OFFER

Classified By: Consul General Jake Walles, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. President Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazen)
announced November 23 that he will call for presidential and
legislative elections in early 2009 if national dialogue with
Hamas fails. Abbas blamed Hamas for the breakdown of
national dialogue talks in Cairo and defended peace
negotiations with Israel. Hamas rejected Abbas' call for
elections, claiming it "lacked seriousness." End summary.

Abbas Calls for 2009 Election "If
National Dialogue Fails"
--------------


2. (SBU) Addressing the PLO Central Council (PLO CC) in
Ramallah November 23, President Abbas said he will call for
presidential and legislative elections in early 2009 if
national dialogue with Hamas fails. Abbas said the PLO "will
exert all efforts to make national dialogue succeed.
Otherwise, I will issue a decree to prepare for presidential
and legislative elections in 2009 based on complete
proportional representation." Abbas said Hamas is to blame
for the breakdown in recent talks in Cairo and added, "Hamas
pretexts for delaying the dialogue are not real." Abbas
denied that the PA has political detainees and said, "we will
never accept such so-called politically motivated detentions."


3. (C) In a speech to the Palestine Investment
Conference--Northern Forum in Nablus on November 22,
President Abbas attacked Hamas, saying, "we say to those who
did the coup: our hands are extended for dialogue and we do
not exclude anyone and do not call anyone atheist. We renew
our call for dialogue based on the Egyptian paper. It is
clear that Hamas is attempting to block dialogue to remain in
control of Gaza." (Comment: At the Nablus event, Abbas
seemed more energized than we have seen him recently. His
normal drab delivery was replaced with a fervor that excited
the audience. End comment).

Abbas Defends Negotiations with Israel
--------------


4. (C) At the PLO CC meeting, President Abbas said he joined
negotiations "to avoid giving Israel, the U.S. or the Quartet
any pretexts to show that we do not want to negotiate.
However, we do not go to those negotiations for their own
sake. We asked Israel to end its settlement policy
completely in accordance to the first item of the Road Map,
remove all outposts, reopen Jerusalem institutions, and
release all prisoners, and we will never give up calling for
our people's rights." Abbas said he remains dedicated to
pursuing a two-state solution "despite the fact that Israel
has not stopped its construction of settlements and the
separation wall, and has not removed any of its checkpoints
in the West Bank." In his November 22 Nablus speech, Abbas
said an "American general spent many months preparing a
report. But we have never seen that report, and it should be
released." (Comment: It was unclear whether Abbas was
referring to General Jones' report on strategic requirements
or General Fraser/Selva Roadmap monitoring reports, but after
the speech several Palestinian contacts asked EconChief for
more information on the report Abbas referenced. End
comment).

Hamas Rejects Abbas Call for Elections
--------------


5. (SBU) Hamas spokesmen rejected Abbas' elections call,
claiming that the PLC's term runs until 2010 while Abbas must
leave office in January 2009. Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhum
told press Abbas' comments "lack seriousness in calling for
dialogue while creating obstacles aimed at the dialogue's
failure."

Comment
--------------


6. (C) President Abbas' Ramallah and Nablus speeches are
intended to position the PLO in support of national dialogue
and elections while Hamas rejects them, thus shifting the
focus of debate away from legal arguments as to when Abbas'
term ends. PLO officials note that Abbas wants to pressure
Hamas to agree to dialogue and elections on his terms.
Actual elections are unlikely at this juncture, as neither
the PA nor Hamas can hold credible elections without the
assent of all major players, including Israel.
WALLES