CANDIDATE LISTS SHAPING UP FOR JERUSALEM'S MAYORAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JERUSALEM 001747

SIPDIS

NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE. NSC FOR ABRAMS/RAMCHAND/PASCUAL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2018
TAGS: KWBG PGOV PREL PTER PHUM KPAL IS
SUBJECT: CANDIDATE LISTS SHAPING UP FOR JERUSALEM'S MAYORAL
ELECTION

Classified By: Acting Principal Officer Greg Marchese, per reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. Jerusalem's Haredi (ultra-orthodox)
community is still considering three contenders for the
November 11 mayoral elections, but expects to settle on a
single candidate in advance of the campaign. Many see MK
Porush, anointed as the United Torah Judaism Party (UTJ)
candidate in a deal between the party's factions, as too
"hard core" to defeat a secular candidate. Current UTJ Mayor
Lupolianski may therefore run for a second term if the party
can rework the deal. Former Shas Chairman Deri has said he
will run if he can overcome the short-term ban against his
participation in politics, splitting Haredi support between
three candidates. The Haredi community expects to settle on
a single candidate in advance of the campaign. A victory for
nationalist candidate Barkat will depend in part on
encouraging voter turnout among the secular, traditional, and
modern Orthodox voters. Thus far, Barkat consistently takes
the lead over all Haredi candidates in polls. Social Justice
candidate Gaydamak refuses to drop out of the race, despite
low polls. Palestinians are not expected to vote in great
numbers, consistent with past practice. Sur Bahir Mukhtar
Hamdan has entered the race, and Palestinian leaders are
publicly split on whether Palestinians should participate.
End Summary.

SELECTION OF ORTHODOX CANDIDATE ON-GOING
--------------


2. (SBU) A single Haredi (ultra-orthodox) candidate has yet
to emerge in the race for Jerusalem's mayor, with three
possible contenders maneuvering for the position. The Haredi
community makes up roughly one third of the Jerusalem
electorate, traditionally unites around a single candidate,
and has a high voter turnout. To win, a Haredi candidate
also needs support among non-Haredi voters.


3. (SBU) UTJ MK Meir Porush was anointed UTJ candidate in a
deal struck before the last mayoral election, in which
current Mayor Uri Lupolianski, from the UTJ's Degel Hatorah
faction, agreed to step down to allow a candidate from the
Agudat Yisrael party to run. Porush comes from a politically
active Haredi family and is seen as "hard core" Orthodox,
which some fear will alienate non-Haredi voters. Local press
speculates Lupolianski, who beat Barkat in the 2003
elections, could seek a second term if Porush does not gain
non-Haredi support. Lupolianski's Deputy Political Advisor
for International Affairs, Elad Halevy, told PolOff that
Lupolianski will seek a second term only if he has agreement
from Agudat Yisrael to avoid creating a rift among the Haredi.


4. (SBU) Former Shas Party Chairman Arieh Deri, another
potential Haredi candidate, has said publicly that there will
be one Haredi candidate in the race and that the candidate
with the best chance of success should run. Deri cannot
formally run for mayor at present because he was convicted in
2002 of accepting bribes, fraud, and breach of trust. By
law, anyone convicted of a crime that bears "moral turpitude"
cannot run for political office for seven years after release
from prison. Deri has sought clemency based on legal
technicalities and may appeal to President Peres for an
official pardon. If he runs, Deri's campaign will focus on
keeping Jerusalem undivided while investing in East
Jerusalem's infrastructure. He has courted secular voters
with his promise to allow Jerusalem's Gay Pride parade to
continue.

SECULAR CANDIDATE LEADING IN POLLS
--------------


5. (SBU) Nationalist candidate Nir Barkat -- a high-tech
millionaire and right-wing politician who is currently the
Municipal Council Opposition Leader -- has focused his
campaign on reaching out to secular, traditional, and modern
Orthodox voters, hoping to promote a higher voter turnout in
this sector based on social issues, such as education and the
environment. Barkat lost to Lupolianski in 2003, but polls
this year put him in the lead over Porush, Lupolianski, or
Deri, with Porush having the lowest chance of defeating
Barkat. As Jerusalem's Haredi population increases, Barkat
says he wants to balance the needs of the religious
communities with the needs of non-religious residents and
with municipal development. Barkat's strong stand on an
undivided Jerusalem has alienated some left-wing voters.


6. (SBU) Russian-born billionaire Arkadi Gaydamak, who
formed his own Social Justice Party based on socio-economic
issues, has consistently polled lowest in this race, but so

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far refuses to drop out, although he hints at running with
Deri if Deri runs. Gaydamak has tried to appeal to Haredi
and Arab voters by promising to ban the Gay Pride parade and
meeting with Jerusalem Mufti Muhammad Hussein. Competing
against candidates with much broader bases, Gaydamak is not
expected to significantly expand his support.

PALESTINIAN PARTICIPATION IN THE ELECTION
--------------


7. (SBU) Historically, less than five percent of
Palestinians participate in municipal elections, arguing that
to vote is to legitimize Israeli control over East Jerusalem.
Zuhair Hamdan, Mukhtar of the Palestinian neighborhood Sur
Bahir, announced his intention to run for mayor this year,
breaking the Palestinian boycott. Local Palestinian contacts
told PolOff Hamdan is widely perceived as being too close to
the Israeli establishment, and that his candidacy will not
encourage Palestinians to vote.


8. (SBU) PA Governor of Jerusalem Adnan Husseini told PolOff
the PA will encourage Palestinians not to vote this year, and
said Palestinian officials discouraged al-Quds University
President Sari Nusseibeh from publicly calling for
Palestinians to participate as he has in past years. Senior
PFLP member and PLO-EC member Abd al-Rahim Maluh said
publicly that voting in the elections would "advance the
recognition of the annexation of East Jerusalem" and
denounced calls for Palestinians to vote.


9. (SBU) Rami Nasrallah, Director of the International Peace
and Cooperation Center (IPCC),said marginally more East
Jerusalemites might vote this year to demonstrate that
Jerusalem is their "center of life" and protect their status
as Jerusalem residents. He said the lack of Palestinian
civil culture; the Israeli prohibition against Palestinian
organizations in Jerusalem; and unfamiliarity with Israeli
political parties, platforms, and voting procedures are also
obstacles to Palestinian voting.


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