MIXED FORTUNES FOR TWO ISLAMIC PARTIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 000893

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS
NSC FOR EPHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/06/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL ID
SUBJECT: MIXED FORTUNES FOR TWO ISLAMIC PARTIES

REF: A. JAKARTA 801


B. JAKARTA 488 AND PREVIOUS

JAKARTA 00000893 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Pol/C Joseph Legend Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: The Islamic-oriented PKS party unofficially
kicked off its 2009 election campaign with a 10th anniversary
celebration on May 4 attended by over 100,000 revelers.
President Yudhoyono and other 2009 presidential hopefuls
attended, all vying for PKS support. Meanwhile, another
Islamic party is not faring so well: the PKB party of former
president Wahid (aka "Gus Dur") has continued to fracture.
While the PKB sinks, the PKS event demonstrates the party's
growing importance on the political scene. END SUMMARY.

PKS CELEBRATES


2. (U) The Islamic-oriented Prosperous Justice Party (PKS)
threw itself a 10th birthday party on May 4 at Jakarta's
Senayan Sports Stadium, attended by over 100,000. (Note:
The party was founded in 1998 shortly before the collapse of
the Suharto regime.) High-level Indonesians attended,
including the following declared or possible 2009
presidential candidates:

-- President Yudhoyono;
-- former Jakarta governor Sutiyoso;
-- Hanura Party Chair General (ret.) Wiranto; and,
-- former Golkar Chair Akbar Tandjung.


3. (U) Commenting on the attendance of these political
heavyweights, PKS chief patron Hilmy Aminuddin told the
crowd, "We are open to anyone wanting to be the country's
next leader." PKS President Tifatul Sembirung said: "We are
open (to alliances) with any parties as long as we have the
same vision. We value plurality and respect those with
different beliefs." Major PKS figure and People's
Consultative Assembly (MPR) Speaker Hidayat Nur Wahid and the
three PKS ministers in the Cabinet also attended as did many
legislators and other political luminaries. In his brief
remarks, President Yudhoyono called on the rich to help the
poor cope with rising fuel and food prices. (Note: PKS
forms part of Yudhoyono's ruling coalition.)


4. (C) In a May 5 meeting with Pol/C, Umar Shihab, a senior
official of the Majelis Ulama Indonesia (MUI),said he had
attended the event. (Note: MUI is an important Muslim body
in Indonesia. Shihab is not a member of a political party.)
He said he was highly impressed with PKS's ability to draw a
sizable crowd and keep the event moving in terms of
organization. He gave credit to its "energetic young
volunteers." Shihab added that the event was "almost like a
celebration of PKS by the entire body politic," which
indicated that the party had moved beyond its narrow Muslim
roots.

PKB IN THE DOLDRUMS


5. (SBU) Meanwhile, while PKS celebrates, another Islamic
party is facing tough times. As predicted in reftels, Gus
Dur's once influential National Awakening Party (PKB) has
split into rival factions. The PKB Advisory Board, led by
Gus Dur, recently elected Ali Masykur Musa as party chair.
In reaction to this, the snubbed Party Chair Muhaiman
Iskandar, Gus Dur's nephew and Deputy Speaker of Parliament,
subsequently convened a separate extraordinary meeting on May

4. This meeting voted to maintain Muhaiman as chairman. The
Iskandar faction also voted little-known cleric Aziz Mansyur
as the party's chief patron, replacing Gus Dur. The General
Election Commission has yet to rule on the dispute.


6. (SBU) PKB has until May 12 to close the rift or face the
possibility that neither faction can compete in the 2009
elections. PKB continues to draw its support mainly from Gus
Dur's strong Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) backing in East Java (ref

JAKARTA 00000893 002.2 OF 002


B). (Note: NU--one of the largest Islamic groups in the
world--represents many Indonesian Muslim clerics and
scholars.)

A TALE OF TWO PARTIES


7. (C) Fresh off its recent victories in the West Java and
North Sumatra gubernatorial races, PKS continues to gain
traction. While a crowd of 100,000 in Jakarta is not bad,
the real sign of the party's newfound prominence is the
attendance at the event by Yudhoyono and the other
presidential candidates. All of them were clearly vying for
PKS support in 2009 and the party lapped that up. In the
meantime, PKB's trajectory seems bleak. The party received
10 percent of the national vote in 2004, which was down from
12 percent in 1999. The recent split in the party is bound
to hurt its already declining chances for 2009.
HUME