STRESSING MAINSTREAM MESSAGE, ISLAMIC PARTY PICKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 000773

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS
NSC FOR EPHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2018
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KISL ID
SUBJECT: STRESSING MAINSTREAM MESSAGE, ISLAMIC PARTY PICKS
UP TRACTION

REF: A. JAKARTA 768


B. JAKARTA 744

JAKARTA 00000773 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Pol/C Joseph Legend Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d).


1. (U) This message was coordinated with Consulate Medan.


2. (C) SUMMARY: Apparent gubernatorial victories this week
in West Java and North Sumatra by the Islamic-oriented
Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) were due to skillful
grassroots politicking rather than direct Islamic-type
appeals, political pundits agree. PKS's reinvention into a
mainstream party which addresses bread and butter secular
issues has reinvigorated the party. Meanwhile, Indonesia's
two largest (and secular) parties acknowledged the need to
review their plans and performance in the wake of the losses.
Some commentators have noted that PKS is not really netting
more votes for the Islamic cause, but adroitly taking
advantage of splits in the secular opposition. END SUMMARY.


PKS -- PARTY OF CHANGE


3. (C) As reported in reftels, PKS--an Islamic oriented
party--has apparently won stunning victories this week in
gubernatorial races in West Java (on April 13) and North
Sumatra (on April 16),two of the largest provinces in the
country. (Note: The counting is not yet finished in either
race and formal results have not yet been announced, but PKS
seems solidly ahead in both races at this point.) The
apparent victories were due to a combination of factors--none
of which really had anything to do with Islam, a respected
Jakarta-based political consultant, Kevin O'Rourke, told
DepPol/C. O'Rourke said three components stand out:

-- (1) PKS has positioned itself as change-oriented in a
timeframe of rapidly rising prices and other
economic/social/governance concerns;

-- (2) It has run solid, efficient campaigns; and,

-- (3) The (secular) opposition has been split and
ineffective.


4. (C) In West Java, a public opinion survey by national
"Kompas" newspaper published on April 14 on why people voted
confirmed a popular desire "to kick the bums out." A quarter
of respondents said leadership was the most important factor
in their vote, while another quarter cited integrity. The
hypothesis that high prices, poverty and unemployment were
determining factors was born out in the fact that 42 percent
said they voted based on candidates' promises to improve
economic conditions. PKS also benefited from a weak
opposition which failed to address economic and governance
issues, political analysts we spoke with agreed.


5. (C) In North Sumatra, PKS also showed its pragmatism.
The party agreed to back a former Golkar party warhorse,
Syamsul Arifin, because of his strong grassroots politicking
abilities--despite his shady political links, political
sources told Congen Medan. For his part, Syamsul aligned
himself with PKS because he needed the party to meet the five
percent electoral threshhold in order to run. Syamsul's
running mate, Gatot Pujo Nugroho, was a moderate PKS
politician who reached out to non-Muslims and Syamsul chose
him for that reason. Ultimately, however, PKS won the narrow
victory because of the terrible candidates which the major
parties presented and because the opposition fragmented the
secular-oriented vote.

PKS UPBEAT


JAKARTA 00000773 002.2 OF 002



6. (C) PKS, naturally, is thrilled with its recent triumphs.
PKS parliamentarian Zulkieflimansyah (Zul) told DepPol/C
that their winning candidates in both races represented a new
generation of PKS politicians. Their focus is on economic
reform, social welfare, good governance, and
business-friendly policy meant to attract investment and
create jobs.


7. (C) According to contacts, while some PKS Islamic
hardliners remain, the vast majority are now moderates--many
of whom have studied abroad and returned home with a
different perspective. PKS party members who participated in
the USG's International Leadership Visitors Program, for
example, came back with a greatly moderated world
perspective, Zul added. For example, in Medan, PKS has
successfully moderated the views of some students who were
most stridently anti-U.S., Congen Medan confirmed. That
said, other contacts have told us that PKS still contains a
solid faction that is somewhat suspicious of the U.S. (due
to Iraq, Israel, etc.). They also want to impose Islamic
social laws (generally not a popular message in Indonesia
with its moderate Muslim population).

OTHER PARTIES REACT


8. (C) In the wake of the PKS' apparent victories,
Indonesia's two largest parties have acknowledged the need to
draw lessons from the results in advance of next year's
presidential and legislative races. The Deputy Secretary
General of the largest party--Golkar--conceded that the West
Java result stood as a strong repudiation of the status quo
and vowed his party had absorbed the message of change.
(Note: Golkar supported the incumbent in West Java, who
finished a distant third.) Other Golkar contacts evinced
great surprise at the result in West Java, but not because
they lost. As Golkar operative Dadan Irawan told poloff,
many people expected Golkar to lose, just not to the PKS
candidate.


9. (SBU) Senior politicians from Indonesia's second largest
party--Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P)--readily
admitted that they were still grappling with the shock of
their candidate's apparent defeat in West Java. (Note: The
PDI-P backed former Transportation Secretary Agum Gumelar,
the apparent second place finisher in West Java.) However,
PDI-P legislator Sidarto Danusbroto told the media the loss
would serve as "an invaluable lesson" for the party, and
promised that PDI-P would carefully study the results for
applicable lessons.

LOOKING AHEAD


10. (C) The West Java election result will not be certified
until April 20 and the North Sumatra race later than that.
The two key gubernatorial races that come up next are in
Central Java (June 22) and East Java (July 23). PKS is
clearly on a roll and reaping great success with its
mainstream approach, but success in those two races is not at
all assured.


11. (C) GOLKAR and PDI-P at this point have been warned and
will no doubt work doubly hard to try to make sure they are
not defeated in those key provinces. Although these two
parties are no doubt having their problems, it is worth
noting that they are losing basically because they are
dividing the secular vote. According to observers, PKS is
not really netting more votes for the Islamic cause, but
adroitly taking advantage of splits in the secular
opposition.

HUME