WEST JAVA GOVERNOR'S RACE HEATS UP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 000633

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DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/PD
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAO ECON ID
SUBJECT: WEST JAVA GOVERNOR'S RACE HEATS UP

REF: 07 JAKARTA 3058

JAKARTA 00000633 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Pol/C Joseph Legend Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Pol/C visited Bandung, West Java, March
27-28. West Java--Indonesia's largest province in terms of
population--holds its first-ever direct election for governor
on April 13. With the race heating up, most observers
believe the opposition candidate is gaining traction. The
incumbent governor--who is supported by President
Yudhoyono--is still very much in the mix, but he is blamed
for rising prices and other economic problems. Pol/C also
held a public outreach event at a local university,
discussing the U.S. presidential election process. END
SUMMARY.

NOT SO QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT


2. (SBU) Pol/C and Pol FSN visited Bandung, the capital of
West Java, March 27-28. The city of almost three
million--which is located about 180 kilometers southeast of
Jakarta--was abuzz over West Java's first-ever direct
election for governor, which is slated to take place on April

13. According to the Election Commission, outside of the
national elections for the presidency and the legislature
(the DPR) in 2004, the West Java gubernatorial race is
expected to be the largest election in Indonesian history,
with over 27 million people registered to vote out of a
province-wide population of over 40 million.


3. (SBU) Despite earlier reports that the election might be
postponed because the voter list was not complete, an
Election Commission official asserted that "the election is
fully set and will take place as scheduled." He did not
foresee any problems, but noted that "in an election this
large, tabulation might take some time, so the result might
be delayed."

THREE RALLIES AND A TRAFFIC JAM


4. (SBU) The campaign officially began on March 28, with the
three major candidates holding consecutive rallies in
Bandung's sprawling version of Manhattan's Central Park
(minus the reservoir). Agum Gumelar and his PDI-P
(Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle) were first up.
That rally ended in about an hour, with the red-clad
followers of PDI-P filing away from the park. Followers of
the Islamic-oriented Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) dressed
in black-and-white then took over, cheering for their
candidate, Ahmad Heryawan. Yellow-shirt wearing followers of
Golkar, the party of incumbent governor Danny Setiawan, came
up next.


5. (SBU) Perhaps incredibly given Indonesia's lagging
reputation for efficiency, all three rallies--which were
large, peaceful and well-attended--took place before mid-day
and the start of Friday prayer time. Unfortunately, no one
seemed to have flagged the whole situation to the city's
traffic authorities and, around noon, the city came to a
complete standstill. This did not seem to disturb departing
rally-goers who eagerly waved and sang songs as their
chartered buses steered ever so slowly through the gridlock.


THE ACCIDENTAL CANDIDATE


6. (C) Observers believe that PDI-P candidate Agum Gumelar
is gaining some traction and could beat the incumbent, Danny
Setiawan. Gumelar, who is a former commander of KOPASSUS
(Army Special Forces),is running an energetic, well-funded
campaign. Although from West Java and a member of the
area's Sunda majority, Gumelar's candidacy for governor

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surprised many as he had not lived in the region for years.


7. (C) Well-known as then president Megawati's
Transportation Minister (2001-04),Gumelar had already run
failed campaigns for president and for governor of Jakarta
before deciding to run in West Java. One wag told Pol/C, "If
he had not lost all those races, he would not be running
here." That said, observers consider Gumelar smart and
focused, with the charisma needed to sway a crowd. He has
also been pressing the message that he will work to try to
bring down prices and bring jobs to the region. With prices
on the way up (see septel and reftels),this has been a
popular message.

GOLKAR'S BIG CHILL


8. (C) If PDI-P is on the upswing, the situation is a bit
grim for Golkar. While incumbent Governor Danny Setiawan is
considered amiable, and has the considerable funding and
campaign apparatus of Golkar on his side, his campaign seems
in need of a kick-start. One big reason for this is that, as
the incumbent, Setiawan is being blamed for high prices and
other economic problems. Setiawan has claimed that he has an
economic plan that can work, but he has only just begun to
sell that plan. In remarks echoed by others, Vincent Yo, the
Chinese-Indonesian director of a local garment company, told
Pol/C that he thought that Setiawan was in some trouble
because he was not seen as effective and was not a
particularly good communicator.

OPRAH'S ENDURING POPULARITY


9. (U) Pol/C--in a public outreach event at the University
of Padjajaran--discussed the U.S. presidential election
process. Pol/C made his PowerPoint presentation to about 75
instructors and international relations students. As usual
in Indonesia, the students asked many well-informed questions
and expressed great interest in the candidacy of Senator
Obama. They frequently cited Oprah Winfrey as the source of
their information.

FIRST OF THE MAJORS


10. (C) West Java will be a bit of a test for the Yudhoyono
administration. Governor Setiawan is known to be close to
Yudhoyono and is supported by the President's Democratic
Party. If he loses, it won't look good for the President and
could be an indication that rising prices are taking a
political toll on those in power. That said, Golkar--though
perhaps down for the moment in this race--has a lot of money
and a strong organization and still could pull it out.


11. (SBU) In any case, West Java is just the first of the
major races coming up: gubernatorial races in Central Java
and East Java are slated for June 22 and July 28,
respectively. While not quite as large as West Java, both of
these other provinces are highly populous and vital for
success in Indonesian politics.
HUME