ASEAN SUMMIT -- INDONESIAN AND SECRETARIAT VIEWS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 JAKARTA 002187

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MLS, EAP/MTS, EAP/RSP
NSC FOR E.PHU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEAN ID TH
SUBJECT: ASEAN SUMMIT -- INDONESIAN AND SECRETARIAT VIEWS

REF: A. STATE 123211

B. JAKARTA 2170

C. BANGKOK 3491

Classified By: A/Pol/C Stanley Harsha, reasons 1.4 (b+d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Indonesian Government and ASEAN Secretariat
officials say it is increasingly likely that the upcoming
ASEAN Summit and related meetings will be postponed due to
the political standoff in Thailand. If the situation in
Thailand is not resolved, one possibility under discussion is
to hold the summits at the ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta in
late January.


2. (C) SUMMARY (Con'd): Despite the possible postponement,
officials are preparing for Summit discussions on democracy
and human rights, Burma, and various economic agreements.
Secretariat officials expect their operations to expand to
cope with the new demands of building a ASEAN Community. END
SUMMARY

SUMMITS MAY BE POSTPONED


3. (SBU) Per Ref A request, Mission officers engaged
Indonesian Government and ASEAN Secretariat officials
regarding the upcoming ASEAN Summit and related meetings.
ASEAN Secretariat officials told us they expected the
Government of Thailand to postpone the ASEAN Summit due to
the ongoing political stalemate in Bangkok. ASEAN would
formally inform dialogue partners of the final decision in
the coming days, perhaps as early as December 2, Secretariat
officials said.


4. (C) GOI officials agreed the summits were likely to be
postponed. George Lantu, Deputy Director for ASEAN Political
and Security Cooperation at the Department of Foreign Affairs
(DEPLU),said GOI officials had been unable to travel to
Thailand for pre-summit meetings because of the closure of
key Thai airports. They noted that ASEAN Secretariat
officials also had been unable to travel to Thailand. Lantu
said Indonesia expected the meetings to occur in January or
March, 2009. (Note: Under the Charter, ASEAN should hold
two summits per year. It is unclear whether a rescheduled
summit would take the place of one of those slated for 2009
or whether there would be three summits that year.)


5. (C) Lantu said that, if the situation in Thailand
remained unresolved, one option under discussion was to hold
the summits at the ASEAN Secretariat in Jakarta. However, he
cautioned, this could not occur before late January, given
the preparatory work needed. Until the summit's postponement
is formally announced, GOI officials will continue to prepare
for the meetings as currently scheduled.

ENTHUSIASM FOR U.S. PRESENCE


6. (SBU) Indonesian officials praised the decision to name
EAP DAS Scot Marciel Ambassador for ASEAN Affairs. They also
welcomed Ambassador Marciel's attendance at the upcoming
meetings and said this would do much to help dispel the view
that the U.S. was not engaged with ASEAN.

DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS AT CENTER STAGE


7. (C) Indonesian officials believe the inclusion of the
ASEAN Human Rights Body (AHRB) in the Charter is a
significant achievement. They said Indonesia had pushed hard
for this but that the body had fallen short of what it
wanted, particularly regarding monitoring and enforcement
mechanism. This, Lantu explained, was because of the need to
accommodate other member states' sensitivities. Indonesia
would continue to press for these issues through a high-level
panel which continues to discuss the Terms of Reference (TOR)
for the human rights body, he said.


8. (C) Secretariat officials agreed that approval of the TOR
would take some time. Dr. Termsak Chalermpalanupap, Senior

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Advisor to the Secretary General, noted that a high level
panel was in the process of finalizing the terms of reference
(TOR) for the AHRB, which would be reviewed by the ASEAN
Foreign Ministers on the margins of the ASEAN Summit. The
final draft of the TOR would be submitted to the Foreign
Ministers for consideration in 2009. DEPLU officials said
they expected approval of the TOR at the July ASEAN
Ministerial Meeting.


9. (C) Given the large disparity in views on human rights,
the AHRB will focus primarily on the general promotion of
human rights during its initial phase, according to Dr.
Termsak. The limited scope of the AHRB has prompted
Secretary General Surin to propose creating an ASEAN Human
Rights Centre, to work in parallel with the official AHRB,
providing ideas on more controversial human rights issues and
policy advice. The center is expected to be formed in
Jakarta, most likely in conjunction with the University of
Indonesia, given Indonesia's leadership on human rights
issues within ASEAN, according to Mr. Termsak. The ASEAN
Secretariat has approached the ASEAN-U.S. Technical
Assistance and Training Facility to assist with the
development of the ASEAN Human Rights Centre.

BURMA ALSO ON THE AGENDA


10. (C) DEPLU interlocutors expect Burma to feature in the
upcoming ASEAN summit agenda. Regarding a possible
statement, Lantu said Indonesia would push for "not less than
was in last year's statement" on the matter. He cautioned,
however, that, given the sensitivity of this issue for some
ASEAN member states, Indonesia did not expect the
organization to take a tougher line on Burma. As a result,
the GOI preferred to focus on using the upcoming Bali
Democracy Forum (BDF) to raise democracy issues with Burma
(see Ref B). Lantu opined that Burma's decision to attend
the BDF was a step forward. Their participation would give
Indonesia an opportunity to share the experiences of its own
democratization process with the Burmese.


11. (C) Parliamentarians plan to push for a tougher approach
on this issue. Djoko Susilo, a member of the House of
Representatives (DRP) Burma Caucus, told us that legislators
would press the GOI if the AHRB TOR was too weak. They hoped
the document would grant the body the power to sanction Burma
or other member states that flouted the Charter's provisions
on human rights and democracy. Susilo said he planned to
take the case for a stronger AHRB to the Indonesian media in
order to influence senior GOI officials.

ECONOMIC INITIATIVES


12. (C) GOI interlocutors said they would support efforts to
finalize the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI)--a currency swap
arrangement created during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis.
Benyamin Carnadi, DEPLU's Deputy Director for ASEAN Economic
Cooperation, said the CMI would help regional economies deal
with the current global financial crisis.


13. (C) DEPLU officials reiterated Indonesia's support for
the creation of a single ASEAN market and the various free
trade deals to be signed at the summit. They said that
Health Minister Supari's recent negative comments about the
single market did not represent GOI policy. (Note: Supari
has criticized the ASEAN single market because it would allow
competition in the health sector.) Our interlocutors
underscored Indonesian support for the various economic
agreements listed in Ref C.

POST-SUMMIT COMMUNITY BUILDING A PRIORITY


14. (C) For Indonesia, the major achievement of the ASEAN
summit will be the likely adoption of the ASEAN
Political/Security Blueprint and the ASEAN Social/Cultural
Blueprint. These documents, still under discussion among
member states, will translate the Charter's goals into a
specific policy mechanism. Citing the ongoing nature of the

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negotiations, neither Lantu nor Carnadi provided much detail
about the blueprints. They agreed that Indonesia was so far
satisfied with the negation process and the likely outcome
documents.


15. (SBU) Secretariat official Termsak told us the upcoming
ASEAN Summit and the ASEAN Charter entering into force would
mark a shift in ASEAN's focus, moving from policy
coordination toward community building. ASEAN's activities
would increasingly center on capacity-building among member
countries, to ensure rapid economic and social integration.
However, Dr. Termsak and other ASEAN Secretariat Officials
have warned observers not to expect a sudden, wholesale
change in the way ASEAN operates. In an effort to more
effectively manage the economic integration process, ASEAN
plans to form a Committee of the Whole (COW),which will
consist of the senior officials from all of ASEAN's economic
sectoral bodies, including trade, finance, transportation,
telecommunications and energy. The COW will provide ASEAN
with a mechanism to coordinate and prioritize the blueprint
implementation process across sectors and member countries.


16. (SBU) The shift to community building is expected to
increase the mandate of the ASEAN Secretariat markedly. The
Secretariat is in the process of a large-scale
reorganization, which includes the addition of two new Deputy
Secretaries General and the hiring of 70 additional staff
members. The Secretariat has also proposed to member
countries a near doubling of its annual operating budget,
from $9 million to $17 million. The ASEAN Charter retains an
equal dues structure, so each member country would be
required to contribute $1.7 million per year if the budget is
approved. The reorganization of the Secretariat includes the
creation of a legal services division to assist with the
interpretation and enforcement of ASEAN agreements in the
future. The Secretariat has also proposed creating a
macroeconomic and financial sector surveillance unit to
assist member countries in financial system monitoring and to
help guide regional economic policy decisions.
HUME