TURKISH MEDIA FIGURES DISCUSS HEADSCARF, POLITICS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 ISTANBUL 000098

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2028
TAGS: PGOV ECON PREL PHUM PROP SOCI SCUL TU
SUBJECT: TURKISH MEDIA FIGURES DISCUSS HEADSCARF, POLITICS,
AND U.S. IMAGE IN TURKEY

Classified By: Consul General Sharon A. Wiener for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT. Conversations between Consul
General and top media representatives in Istanbul in January
and February ranged from discussing the headscarf debate to
the status of major political parties and the U.S. image in
Turkey. Concern about suspension of important reforms and
tensions over the headscarf and other issues expose some
Turks' qualms about the ruling Justice and Development Party
(AKP). In addition, certain statements by AKP members have
fed secularist fears. AKP actions in the year-long run-up to
municipal elections will sharpen and focus these debates.
Given Turks' affinity for conspiracy theories and enduring
support for AKP, debates about the AKP's motives and the
future of Turkey will continue for some time without
resolution. These conversations, which reflect the current
state of political discourse here, were conducted
off-the-record. Please protect editors' comments. END
SUMMARY AND COMMENT.

Social and Political Currents in Turkey
--------------


2. (SBU) In January and February, the Consul General made
courtesy calls on a series of media figures including Mehmet
Ali Birand, Turkey's best known journalist, the anchor of
Kanal D's highest-rated nightly newscast who is credited with
toning down sensationalism in television news; Sedat Ergin,
editor-in-chief of the secular daily Milliyet and Ferfat
Boratav, General Manager of CNN Turk. This cable also
reports her discussions during a call on pro-government Zaman
and English-language Today's Zaman editors-in-chief Ekrem
Dumanli and Bulent Kenes, respectively, along with Zaman's
deputy editor and foreign news editor, Abdulhamit Bilici and
Celil Sagir.


3. (SBU) Mehmet Ali Birand told the CG that Turkey is going
through an incredible transformation, but "we don't know
where we're headed." Current tension between the secular
state and what he described as "the other part" (the
religious conservatives) could become more relaxed or more
difficult. "We've had problems," he said. "This is a
difficult country to run. We'll manage."


4. (SBU) CNN Turk's General Manager Boratav felt despite
social and political turbulence on the surface, Turkey's
undercurrents are moving in the right direction. The
country's integration globally on many levels, not just
economically, is evidence of this, Boratav said, and nothing
has slowed or reversed this tendency.


5. (SBU) Zaman editors maintained confidence during what
they saw as a turbulent time in the Turkish democratic
experience, indicating it was important for Turkey to succeed
"for the whole world, especially the Muslim world." Deputy
Editor Bilici noted Turkey's role as a regional actor and
praised the economic reforms introduced by former Prime
Minister and President Turgut Ozal (1983-89),which
transformed a statist economy into a modern, market-based
economy.


6. (SBU) Birand speculated that in ten years Turkey would
be more conservative. However, he maintained Turkey would
not become the next Iran, as many fear, because the
undercurrents for an Islamic revolution do not exist in
Turkey. While there was some "fundamentalism" in the Black
Sea, Southeast and central-Anatolian regions, Birand
emphasized it is not a nationwide phenomenon. Zaman's Bilici
also played down Islamist currents in Turkey, saying
political Islam has never represented all Turks.


7. (SBU) Milliyet editor-in-chief Sedat Ergin claimed
Turkish society has become very conservative under the AKP
government. He predicted religious symbols and references
would play an increasingly important role in the society.
Emphasizing the importance of Turkey's unique secular legacy,
Ergin said deterrents must be maintained in Turkey to prevent
it from becoming an Islamist state. He warned against
straying from secularist principles in a new constitution.
Ergin said Milliyet always distances itself from political
Islam and continues to support secularism strongly,
explaining the press has "an important role" to play in
keeping Turkey on the secular path.

The Headscarf Issue
--------------


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8. (SBU) Birand emphasized the need to understand the
headscarf issue in Turkey as more than simply pitting the
religious against the secular or the pious against the
non-religious. Ergin discussed complexities of the headscarf
issue, but stressed it could cause social unrest. He assured
CG the issue would not be resolved by the time she leaves and
she would "be even more confused by then." Boratav, for his
part, claimed current complications over then headscarf were
due to political opposition tactics and the lack of civil
society involvement. He emphasized these problems will not
go away, and the longer Turkey hesitates to confront them,
the more difficult they will become. "Everyone knows this
needs to be solved," he said.


9. (SBU) When the university headscarf ban is lifted,
Birand predicted at first, "It will be gloomy; we will
complain and be skeptical." After the initial turmoil, he
believes the issue will pass peacefully and could ease
tensions, provided religious NGOs and fundamentalists do not
provoke students into confrontation or otherwise instigate
discord. Birand expects universities to become more
"covered," but does not foresee lifting of the ban on
headscarves in official buildings.


10. (SBU) Commenting on the much-cited secularist fear that
"mahalle baskisi" (neighborhood pressure) will lead to
increased prevalence of the turban, Birand said the pressure
"was always there" and the government can never force women
to cover. However, Birand noted the turban is more widely
apparent and has become "a modern version of chador."
Zaman's editor-in-chief Dumanli also discounted fears of
neighborhood pressure. As evidence, he claimed that during
Ramazan no one pressures those who do not fast. He
criticized the Dogan media group (which includes Milliyet,
CNN-Turk, and Kanal D) for publishing "misinformation" to
claim otherwise. "Our research shows this is not true," he
continued. "Our culture emphasizes tolerance and respect."
Bilici added it would be the papers' duty to fight any such
pressures, if it existed, claiming "some people want
political gains by exaggerating the situation." He believed
intellectuals and leftists do not trust society to decide for
itself.


11. (SBU) The AKP's role in lifting the ban and the effects
this process may have on AKP in the upcoming local elections
came up in most meetings. Birand admitted he had been more
optimistic about Turkey's prospects following AKP's victory
in the July 2007 elections than he is today. He was
concerned the AKP had jumped too quickly to abet National
Movement Party (MHP) efforts to lift the headscarf ban, which
might cost the AKP political capital it needs to take steps
on other reforms. Although Boratav was critical of the
timing, he was more supportive of AKP's efforts, saying AKP
tried to do something about the problem, but the opposition
moved to stop the process because of distrust of AKP.
Boratav said systemic features of Turkish politics include
the tendency that "the wrong people try to do the right
things" and tend to put off the hard problems, hoping they
will go away.


EU Accession
--------------


12. (SBU) During each of the meetings, the media
representatives expressed concern over Turkey's EU accession
process. Most often, they criticized AKP for delaying vital
reforms in favor of the headscarf issue. Birand, Ergin, and
the Zaman editors all claimed French President Sarkozy and
German Chancellor Merkel's opposition to Turkey's full EU
membership was used as an excuse to sidetrack Turkey's EU
accession plans.


13. (SBU) According to Birand, Turkey is "like an iceberg
that needs an anchor," and "the best anchor for Turkey is
Europe." He worried the AKP was giving up on what he called
the "EU project" (the reform process),but remained positive
about Turkey's bid for membership and reform efforts. "This
year will be the test," he warned. If the AKP does not "get
on with it" in 2008, nothing would stop critics from accusing
the AKP of leading Turkey down a fundamentalist track.


14. (SBU) Ergin harshly criticized the AKP, saying it only
paid lip service to pursuing EU membership as an election
strategy. Purporting to have EU membership as AKP's main
objective disarmed AKP opponents, according to Ergin, even
allowing AKP to neutralize the military and gain the support
of mainstream media. After the July 2007 elections, Ergin

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said he had not seen any AKP action to pursue EU membership.
He claimed even liberal opinion makers and columnists have
lost their faith in the AKP's EU plans.


15. (SBU) Kenes said both Zaman and Today's Zaman, despite
pro-government leanings, had not hesitated to criticize the
slow pace of reforms to Penal Code Article 301 ("insulting
Turkishness") and the foundations law (since passed). Kenes
claimed the government lacks the courage to tackle these
issues due to nationalist pressure. Zaman editors argued
reform should be undertaken for reform's sake, rather than to
meet EU requirements.


16. (SBU) Boratav felt the AKP made an unfortunate tactical
mistake in isolating the headscarf issue, leaving other
reforms in limbo. He reasoned the AKP should have taken up
the headscarf and other reform issues three years ago during
an "EU reform current," when public support for Turkey's EU
candidacy was much higher.

AKP and the Elections
--------------


17. (SBU) Boratav echoed a common sentiment that AKP's
success in the previous election came in part because of the
turnaround in the Turkish economy. He foresaw economic
reasons beyond AKP's control hurting the party in upcoming
municipal elections and predicted AKP would not get the
political boost it foresees from the headscarf issue. It may
reap marginal gains, he conceded, but people will vote on
economic stability. Birand also emphasized the importance
control and the relationship with secularists would relax if
it continues to improve. If the economy falters, he expects
AKP to revert to "religious elements" for support.


18. (SBU) Bilici claimed PM Erdogan's populist talents and
his "file of accomplishments" had been the driving force
behind the AKP's victory. He is sure Erdogan is not a secret
political Islamist and if Erdogan became more "Islamist," his
popular support would drop. Dumanli added the AKP won
handily in July in part due to a public backlash against the
military's midnight memo and the constitutional court
decision annulling the first round of presidential voting.
Boratav commented on AKP's populist skills, saying it has
"better contact with the people than anything I can
remember." In Bagcilar, where CNN Turk's offices are
located, Boratav said AKP "knows every household. This is
not by chance. They pay for research."


19. (SBU) Ergin's view of the AKP was less complimentary.
He claimed, "This government just doesn't have a flight plan
with regard to any issue, from the Kurdish problem to the
economy." He predicted that PM Erdogan's comment that
headscarves can be political symbols would be used against
him.


20. (SBU) Though they differed on their extent, Birand,
Ergin, and Boratav all speculated on different factions
within AKP. Birand said AKP was not a homogeneous group, as
it contained elements from the former Motherland Party
(ANAP),liberals, socialists, and 5-10% religious
fundamentalists. Boratav underscored AKP's inherent strength
born from "solidarity of forty or fifty years out in the
woods," but one school of thought predicts the AKP will move
so far to the center it will split. He could see a split
along economic lines, as some in the AKP resent what they see
as others in the party getting rich. Ergin said AKP is
unique socially and politically because there are many
different groups within the AKP. "One could claim that they
pursue an Islamist agenda and also the opposite," he said.

Opposition or Lack Thereof
--------------


21. (SBU) Birand bemoaned the lack of real political
opposition to the AKP, warning this could lead - in 10-15
years - to an opposition party emerging from the extreme
religious right rather than from the left or center. He
believes the AKP represents a "lesser evil" than MHP. The
pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP) does not function
as a political alternative for Kurds because the DTP "can't
say no to the PKK."


22. (SBU) Boratav also was pessimistic about opposition
parties' chances in the upcoming local elections. He expects
the Republican People's Party (CHP) will not pull more than
15-17 percent, due to its current leadership crisis.
However, he signaled CHP Sisli Mayor Mustafa Sarigul as

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someone to watch due to his skills in mastering the same
populism which contributes to AKP's success. Zaman's Hilici
said the last year had been a "political nightmare" for CHP
and Democratic Left Party (DSP),especially after the
military's "e-coup" of April 27, 2007, was denounced in the
Turkish press.

The Kurdish Issue
--------------


23. (SBU) Echoing a common theory, Birand said the AKP and
the Turkish military both want the conflict with the PKK to
continue. The AKP, he claimed, wants to let the fighting
continue to separate the PKK from the larger Kurdish issue
and improve its political chances in upcoming elections. He
claimed the military knew intervention against the government
would be a disaster because it would leave them trapped
between the PKK and "religious fundamentalist fascists." As
for the PKK, Birand said, it knows amnesty would be its
demise, so it continues to demand Ocalan's release, a
condition the Turkish government will never meet.


24. (SBU) Boratav worried the public did not understand the
critical nature of the Kurdish issue. He reemphasized this
persistent issue should be dealt with sooner rather than
later. He echoed a widely held view the AKP dearly wants to
take control of Kurdish-dominated Diyarbakir in the upcoming
local elections. According to Borayav, this would be a
"national conquest" for the AKP as it would give PM Erdogan
"uncontested proof" the PKK does not represent Kurdish
political aspirations. Boratav believed the military is
"intrigued" by the possibility of undermining Kurdish
political influence, but have reservations. Zaman's Kenes
felt the government feared nationalist reactions and thus
delayed action.

The U. S. and Turkey
--------------


25. (SBU) Both Birand and Boratav were positive about U.S.
- Turkey relations. Birand believes Europe and America would
serve as "dual anchors" for Turkey. Birand and Zaman's
Dumanli both believed Turkish perceptions of the United
States had improved dramatically since PM Erdogan's November
5 visit with President Bush and increased cooperation on the
PKK. Birand noted, "It's very easy to influence public
opinion in Turkey." Boratav added, "The once-ticking bomb
seems to be diffused." He warned that there is no room for
complacency. He stressed the Iraq and Iran issues are very
sensitive and any "wrong steps" could jeopardize progress
made in recent months.


26. (SBU) But, according to Boratav, a potent deep anger
and mistrust of the United States still exists in Turkey,
stemming from how Turks perceive American attitudes and
actions in the Middle East and toward Muslims in general. He
was skeptical how much recently improved perceptions would be
reflected in public opinion polls, saying the polls are
ephemeral.


27. (SBU) Zaman's Kenes, however, predicted if the Pew
Survey of Global Attitudes were held today, the United States
would get a 25-30% favorable rating (up from the 2007 rating
of 9%). Bilici said Turks share a common consensus about
"positive" U. S. values. Commenting on current youth views
of the U. S. as anti-Islamic, Kenes said this is not
fundamentally anti-Americanism, but a reaction to Bush
Administration policies toward the Middle East, Iraq, Iran
and the PKK. Dumanli criticized President Bush's use of the
word "crusade" in describing the fight against terrorism, as
the public perceived it as anti-Islam. He recalled before
9/11, many Turks admired the United States, especially
appreciating U. S. involvement in Bosnia and Kosovo when
"Europe did nothing." He believed the United States had lost
credibility since then.


28. (SBU) To improve U.S. image in Turkey, Birand
recommended, "Talk to everyone. Talk to Kurds. Talk to the
DTP. And if you have the connections, talk to the PKK." The
CG reminded Birand the United States does not talk to the PKK
or terrorists in general.


29. (SBU) Boratav emphasized the difficulty of repairing
the U.S. image abroad, warning "classic answers of public
diplomacy" (without elaborating on exactly what he meant)
would not work, as they are "decoded too easily." No one
should assume Turkey would automatically still be in the
"western camp." He encouraged more public diplomacy along

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the lines of U/S Karen Hughes' interaction with women's
groups on her 2005 "listening tour." Even though the
meetings produces "tumultuous debate," Boratav said the
Turkish public would embrace this as positive. The CG
responded that we were doing more "nontraditional" public
diplomacy which might not be so visible in the media.


30. (SBU) When asked what could be done to improve the U.

S. image in Turkey, Kenes said that the United States should
strengthen economic ties with Turkey, not only in the area of
military technology. Dumanli recommended making available
Turkish translations of books and reaching out to Turkish
graduates of U.S. universities.
WIENER