Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08ISTANBUL492
2008-09-15 11:51:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Istanbul
Cable title:  

STAFFDEL MAKOVSKY MEETS WITH AKP INSIDER AND U.S.

Tags:  PGOV PREL TU EINV IR 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000492 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU EINV IR
SUBJECT: STAFFDEL MAKOVSKY MEETS WITH AKP INSIDER AND U.S.
BUSINESSES

Classified By: Classified by Consul General Sharon A. Wiener for reason
s 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000492

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU EINV IR
SUBJECT: STAFFDEL MAKOVSKY MEETS WITH AKP INSIDER AND U.S.
BUSINESSES

Classified By: Classified by Consul General Sharon A. Wiener for reason
s 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (U) Summary: On September 3 a House Foreign Relations
Committee staff delegation led by Alan Makovsky discussed the
future of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) with
AKP founding member H. Cuneyd Zapsu; and, in a separate
meeting, discussed the Turkish business climate with members
of the American Business Forum in Turkey (ABFT). Zapsu said
that AKP has learned its lesson from the headscarf
controversy and will now focus on reforms, while the ABFT
members expressed concern that regional instability would
dampen otherwise bright prospects for their businesses. End
Summary.

Zapsu: Full Steam Ahead With Reforms
--------------

2. (U) Although Zapsu has no current official position in the
government, he is widely described as Turkish Prime Minister
Erdogan's "right hand man" and has been called a "shadow
prime minister." In March, he resigned his party position as
administrative board member in order, he says, to have more
personal time, but continues to serve as a "Special
Assistant" to Erdogan. He has recently begun consulting for
the private equity firm Texas Pacific Group.


3. (C) Zapsu says that, following the initiation of the
closure case against AKP, AKP analyzed what went wrong --
including, he said, a "horrible trap" set by MHP on the
headscarf issue (by first supporting and then opposing a
constitutional amendment) -- and has "learned its lesson."
Now, in order to achieve the results that AKP desires
(including entry into the EU, writing a new constitution, and
a doubling of the country's per capita income),AKP must
reach out to "everyone."


4. (C) With respect to the headscarf issue, Zapsu said that
the AKP would not pursue the issue further. He also said that
if the secularists knew Erdogan's daughters, they wouldn't
worry, because they are all "feminists." (Zapsu's wife and
one of his own three daughters, both uncovered, briefly
joined our meeting. Zapsu's wife gained much notoriety
several years ago by entering a mosque uncovered and joining
a group of men at prayer.) Zapsu himself is modern, western

and, while religious, also clearly "secular," at least as
that term is used in the U.S. He is outraged that the
Constitutional Court held him guilty of (as he put it)
"attempting to bring Sharia law to Turkey." He wanted to
appeal the verdict to the European Court of Human Rights, but
Erdogan told him to "forget it."


5. (C) Regarding the AKP's reform agenda, Zapsu said that Ali
Babacan might soon be replaced as chief EU negotiator, to
enable him to focus on the Israel-Syria conflict mediation.
The AKP hopes to submit to Parliament a complete rewrite of
the constitution in the near future. It is unlikely to submit
it to a referendum, which is a process that the AKP prefers
to avoid unless it is certain of success. A new constitution
will require the support of MHP, which MHP has promised to
provide. Zapsu laughed, however, when Makovsky noted that MHP
had twice before reneged on its promises to support the AKP
(on the election of a president and the headscarf).


6. (C) In a quick tour d'horizon of regional issues, Zapsu
predicted that Turkey would be the "good guys" with respect
to Armenia; that Talat is the "right guy" for Cyprus; that
differences with Iran must be "worked out" in some way; and
that Europe (including Turkey) needs to "hold together" and
be "tough" on Russia with respect to Georgia, because "Russia
needs the world as much as the world needs Russia."

ABFT: Regional Instability is Bad for Business
--------------

7. (U) The Staffdel also met with ABFT founding members
Rahsan Cebe, Turkish Managing Partner of Cushman and
Wakefield (C&W),and Serif Kaynar, Turkish Managing Partner
of Korn/Ferry International (KFI). Both were optimistic about
the future business climate in Turkey, if regional
instability can be contained.


8. (U) C&W's Istanbul office covers Turkey, the Ukraine, and
Russia. In Russia, it works only with private companies; it
says that it is impossible to work with the Russian
government. It projects its greatest international growth to

ISTANBUL 00000492 002 OF 002


come from China, the UK, and Turkey. Both C&W and KFI believe
that the top problems in Turkey for foreign businesses are
rule of law, intellectual property rights, and work permits
for foreign workers. Both C&W and KFI have good relations
with the AKP, and argue that the U.S.'s improved relations
with GOT have been good for business.


9. (U) Kaynar thinks that the AKP's privatization efforts, in
particular, have been good for business because, once
privatized, state owned enterprises no longer were in a
position to extract bribes. Kaynar described the current
business climate as "good," with much capital coming in from
many different sources. (Kaynar tempered his praise of AKP by
also noting that AKP benefited from a good world-wide
economy.) Kaynar thinks that the future prospects for Turkey
are very good, because "there is talented management in
Turkey." He predicted that in ten years, half of the cars in
Europe will be manufactured in Bursa/Kocaeli (Turkey's
industrial heartland).


10. (U) Kaynar and Cebe believe that the Georgia situation is
very problematic for Turkey. The problem that Turkish trucks
are having getting into Russia is a reflection of Russia's
unhappiness with Turkey's support of Georgia. Kaynar said
that Russia is also unhappy with Turkey because it is
developing alternative gas routes, and also because it
supposedly is "Turkifying" Russia through its Gulen schools.
Kaynar explained that while Turkey gets two-thirds of its gas
from Russia, Turkey represents only three percent of Russia's
sales; thus, Russia can withhold gas from Turkey without
suffering substantial financial hardship. Cebe said that most
Turks are unaware that Turkish troops have been posted to
Georgia, training Georgian troops. Kaynar described Turkey's
history of business dealings with Iran as "full of
disasters"; asserted Iran is not a "reliable partner"; and
argued Turkish businessmen do not want to deal with Iran.

11. (U) Both Kaynar and Cebe think that the largest concern
of the U.S. business community in Turkey is that USG not
offend Russia. They expressed great concern that a regional
conflict would be bad for business. Kaynar also predicted
that the Armenian Genocide Resolution, if passed, could badly
damage U.S. businesses, since both private enterprises and
the GOT will avoid doing business with them.

12. (U) The Staffdel did not have an opportunity to clear
this cable.
WIENER