A TURKISH PROFESSOR'S PLAN TO OBSERVE IRAN'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000037

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NOFORN

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/19/2028
TAGS: PREL PGOV IR TU
SUBJECT: A TURKISH PROFESSOR'S PLAN TO OBSERVE IRAN'S
MAJLES ELECTIONS

Classified By: Consul General Sharon Wiener; reason 1.5 (d)


1. (C/NOFORN) Summary: A professor at Isik University in
Istanbul is using his ties to a well-connected Iranian
think-tank and to an Iranian political party association to
try to arrange for a small team of non-Iranian election
experts to observe the March 14 Majles elections. He and
three university colleagues visited Iran December 16-20 to
participate in an election workshop held at the Iranian
Expediency Council's think-tank, the Center for Strategic
Research, where he broached the idea of monitoring Majles
elections. The professor believes Iran's Interior Ministry
may allow his group to observe. He is also encouraging
discussion among Iranian experts (including at a December 27
conference he hosted in Istanbul) about the Turkish electoral
model. He will travel back to Iran in late January for
another election roundtable with CSR, and will try then to
lock in MOI support for a foreign election observation team.
Post will stay in close contact as his election observation
plans progress. End Summary.

Iranian academics come to Istanbul
--------------


2. (C/NOFORN) Istanbul Iran watcher met on January 17 with
Isik University professor Bulent Aras (please strictly
protect) initially to discuss his role in hosting a December
27 conference in Istanbul with visiting Iranian academics on
Iran's domestic policy and foreign policy. The Turkish daily
"Today's Zaman" on December 31 published an interview with
one of the Iranian participants, Dr. Rahman Gharemanpour
(available at www.todayszaman.com). In that interview,
Gharemanpour denied that Iran posed any threat to Israel,
dismissed President Ahmadinejad's call for Israel's
destruction as being only "for domestic consumption", and
proposed Turkey and Iran create a regional nuclear
accountancy organization. A list of the conference's
discussion topics and participants can be found
at:http://iibf.isikun.edu.tr.


3. (C/NOFORN) Aras characterized the eleven Iranian
participants, most of whom work for the Expediency Council's
think-tank, the "Center for Strategic Research" (CSR) as
well-informed, well-connected members of Rafsanjani's
"pragmatic camp." There were "one or two" reformers present,
including Behnaz Ashtari, an attorney who formerly worked for
Shirin Ebadi. Aras promised to share the Iranian
presentations, including on "reform and democratization on
Iran." We will forward the papers to the Department when
received. Aras said there were no policy surprises from the
Iranians. He described one of the highlights of the
conference was a "cordial" side meeting between an
Istanbul-based Israeli diplomat and several of the Iranian
participants. He also said there was significant interest on
the Iranian side in learning more about the Turkish electoral
model and lessons from the ruling Justice and Development
Party's (AKP) electoral success.

An election workshop in Iran
--------------


4. (C/NOFORN) Aras revealed that the more interesting
Iran-related effort he is undertaking involves
election-related discussions with the CSR in Iran. He and
three fellow professors from Isik University traveled to Iran
December 16-20 under the auspices of the Middle East
Electoral Council's International Electoral Study Committee
to participate in an election workshop held at CSR offices in
Tehran, chaired by CSR Deputy Director and former Iranian
Deputy FM Mahmoud Vaezi.


5. (C/NOFORN) The Turkish and Iranian participants presented
five papers on electoral systems in Turkey and Iran: The
Turkish professors described many of the different voting
systems used in democratic countries (e.g., various types of
both majority-take-all and proportional electoral systems);
explained Turkey's electoral system; and reviewed the
development of democracy in Turkey culminating in the July
2007 general elections. Iranian professor Mehdi Mokhtari
presented a paper describing Iran's political system; Dr.
Ghahramanpour summarized the laws and regulations that govern
Iranian elections; and Dr. Mohamed Hossein Hafezian analyzed
the current "political and institutional obstacles to holding
free and fair elections in Iran." Aras said Hafezian's
presentation focused on the conflicting demands of a
constitutional republican system with a revolutionary Islamic
system, in which ultimate authority rests with a position

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(the Supreme Leader) that stands above the constitution.
Aras described the discussion afterwards as "intense and
provocative."


6. (C/NOFORN) Aras is seeking permission from participants
to publish the papers and promised to share them. Both sides
agreed to convene a follow-up roundtable in Tehran in late
January, to discuss specific procedural challenges to holding
elections, "though in general terms, not focused explicitly
on Iran." With CSR's support, Aras plans to invite several
European electoral experts to that conference.

Planning for foreign observation of Majles elections
-------------- --------------


7. (C/NOFORN) Aras and his Turkish colleagues also visited
the "Iranian House of Parties" on December 16 to explore
possibilities for outside, "non-Iranian" observation of
Iran's Match 14 Majles elections. Aras acknowledged that the
IHP -- which serves as an official umbrella organization for
all legal Iranian political parties, and acts as a platform
for discussions among parties on electoral issues and
outreach to parties in other countries -- is "not a strong
organization" in Iran's political mosaic. Nevertheless,
according to Aras, IHP has permission from Iran's Interior
Ministry to organize limited domestic election observation on
behalf of specific candidates. Aras is hopeful that, under
IHP,s auspices, he may be able to arrange for a small group
of "non-Iranian" election experts, and that Iran's Interior
Ministry will allow this small foreign observation mission.
Indeed, at least one European expert has already received a
visa to go to Iran during the elections. Aras plans to use
his late January meeting in Iran to work out further details
with IHP on using a small group of non-Iranians experts as
election observers. We will seek an update from Aras after
he returns from that planned visit to Iran.

Comment
--------------


8. (C/NOFORN) Aras harbors no illusions that the relatively
candid discussions he is having with CSR academics on
sensitive election-related topics reflect any loosening of
Iran's political system. To the contrary, Aras expects
Iran's Guardian Council in February to disqualify many or
most of the prominent reformist candidates, though he expects
most candidates affiliated with Rafsanjani (and thus
ideologically compatible with his own network of CSR
contacts) will be allowed to run.


9. (C/NOFORN) Aras is also well aware that influential,
entrenched forces in the Iranian political scene are firmly
opposed to any foreign election observation. However, he
believes his approach -- working quietly under IHP auspices
to secure MOI permission for a small team of Turkish and
European experts as a "sidelight" to the ongoing election
workshops held between Isik University and the CSR -- has a
good chance of success, especially if he can keep his efforts
out of the media and untainted by any association with the
U.S. or EU. End Comment.

WIENER