Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08ISTANBUL287
2008-05-29 04:27:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Istanbul
Cable title:  

THE IRANIAN MFA'S THINK-TANK DIRECTOR ON IRAN AND

Tags:  PREL PGOV IR TU 
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VZCZCXRO5511
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHKUK
DE RUEHIT #0287/01 1500427
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 290427Z MAY 08
FM AMCONSUL ISTANBUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8202
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ISTANBUL 000287 

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/21/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV IR TU
SUBJECT: THE IRANIAN MFA'S THINK-TANK DIRECTOR ON IRAN AND
REGIONAL SECURITY

REF: (A) ISTANBUL 85 (B) ISTANBUL 146

Classified By: Acting Consul General Sandra Oudkirk; Reason 1.5 (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ISTANBUL 000287

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/21/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV IR TU
SUBJECT: THE IRANIAN MFA'S THINK-TANK DIRECTOR ON IRAN AND
REGIONAL SECURITY

REF: (A) ISTANBUL 85 (B) ISTANBUL 146

Classified By: Acting Consul General Sandra Oudkirk; Reason 1.5 (d).


1. (C) Summary and comment: Dr. Rasoul Mousavi, the
director of the Iranian MFA's think-tank, claimed at a
conference on Asian security held in Istanbul on May 21 that
Iran stands ready to help resolve outstanding regional
security challenges; has the most to lose from continued
instability and sectarianism in Iraq; seeks improved
relations with its neighbors (in part to prevent US military
action against Iran); is pursuing a peaceful nuclear program
that presents no threat to the region or to Israel; and wants
to cooperate with any states in the region to combat
terrorism, including from Al Qaida and the Taliban. Comment:
Mousavian's presentation was a surprising blend of candor
and dissimulation: candor in admitting Iran sees its
neighbors as a vital hedge against U.S. military action, and
dissimulation in denying the past violations and outstanding
concerns associated with Iran's nuclear program. Mousavi is
a savvy veteran of the global NGO and think-tank circuit; his
presentation serves as a reminder that Iran still has at its
disposal a cadre of smooth and sophisticated career diplomats
willing to play "good cop" to the Ahmadinejad team's "bad
cop" in support of largely the same foreign policy goals.
End summary and comment.


2. (SBU) Dr. Seyyed Rasoul Mousavi, a former Iranian
Ambassador who now heads the Iranian MFA's think-tank, the
Institute for Political and International Studies (IPIS),
gave a presentation on Iran's views of regional security at a
May 21 conference in Istanbul on security cooperation in Asia.

"Asia needs a more effective security framework"
-------------- ---


3. (SBU) Asia is not well-served by its multilateral
organizations: Asia lacks an effective single security,
political, and economic multilateral framework, Mousavi told
the conference. Reasons include Asia's size, regional
diversity, and political complexity, as well as the
willingness of many Asian states "to allow the United States
to enjoy strategic predominance there." Mousavi catalogued

the numerous multilateral organizations operating in Asia --
including ASEAN, ARF, APEC, SARC, SCO, ECO, and several
others -- and underscored that the proliferation of
limited-mission organizations had weakened the ability of
Asian states to take effective action on multi-faceted
challenges. In an unscripted aside, Mousavi noted that Iran,
Turkey, and Pakistan had been at the forefront of efforts to
create a regional Asian cooperation organization in the
1970s, promoting the idea that later became the Economic
Cooperation Organization (ECO) (ref A). He said Iran has
always sought to integrate itself constructively with
regional partners, and urged regional partners to give more
support to the ECO, which he acknowledged still fell short of
its mission.

Let us handle Asian security for you...
--------------


4. (SBU) Mousavi argued that Asian states would be better
served by identifying the regional challenges and
sub-contracting resolution of those challenges to the
regional players best positioned to resolve them. "Asian
security is still in its primary development phase, so it is
better for now to talk about Asian sub-regional security."
Not surprisingly, Mousavi identified Iran as "a vital
linchpin for Asia, linking Asia to the Caucuses, central
Asia, the Persian Gulf, the Middle East, the sub-continent
via Pakistan, and Europe via Turkey." He noted that after
Russia and China, Iran has the most neighbors (fifteen,
counting Russia and Kazakstan as neighbors across the
Caspian).

Since we have the most to lose
--------------


5. (SBU) Mousavi further asserted that "Iran is caught up
between the two centers of greatest instability in the area
-- Iraq and Afghanistan, where the failed policies of major
western powers have ended up promoting sectarianism,
separatism, and radicalism. Iran stands to gain or lose the
most of anyone over future developments in those two
countries." He offered a pedestrian critique of events in
Afghanistan, arguing that seven years after Kabul was
liberated from the Taliban, they have returned with a
significant presence throughout the country, that Al Qaida is
once again operating out of Afghanistan, and that opium

ISTANBUL 00000287 002 OF 004


production has soared, with over 9000 tons of annual
production, "much of it coming to Iran."


6. (SBU) Turning to Iraq, Mousavi asserted that "five years
after Saddam's fall, Iraq's future remains unpredictable.
Partition along ethnic lines has become an unfortunate and
unofficial reality. Whether these lines of partition are
permanent, or whether Iraq can still function as a true
multiethnic state, is uncertain." Mousavi insisted that
instability in Iraq is bad for Iran, and that Iran's
overarching goal with regard to its western neighbor is to
support ethnic, tribal, and sectarian peace and political
stability throughout Iraq.

Our neighbors are our best defense
--------------


7. (SBU) Playing the neighbors off the U.S.: Mousavi added
candidly that "the best balance against U.S. aggression
towards Iran is for us to keep up good relations with our
neighbors, even those who are U.S. allies, like Turkey,
Pakistan, and Iraq. The United States cannot invade or
attack Iran without neighboring assistance, so our
neighboring countries are our best line of defense against
the U.S." Mousavi acknowledged that Iran's policies differ
in some areas from its neighbors' policies, but reaffirmed
that "Iran looks for, and expects, the friendliest possible
relations with all its neighbors. We will listen to our
neighbors concerns. We hope the U.S. will listen to their
concerns as well" (comment: presumably Mousavi meant their
concerns about the risks of military action against Iran.
End comment.)

Iran's Nuclear Program: The usual rhetoric
--------------


8. (SBU) Mousavi admitted that an Iranian expert could not
address a forum on regional security without raising the
issue of Iran's nuclear program. He offered three arguments
to claim that Iran is not seeking a nuclear weapons
capability: (1) Ayatollah Khamenei issued some years ago a
fatwa against the production, stockpiling, and use of nuclear
weapons; (2) "A nuclear bomb cannot guarantee Iran's
security, and in fact would be a new source of national,
regional, and international insecurity"; and (3) After
investigating Iran's nuclear program more rigorously than it
has investigated any other member state's nuclear program,
the IAEA confirmed that Iran is not diverting nuclear
material, and found only that it cannot verify the absence of
undeclared nuclear material in Iran, "which puts Iran in the
same category in the IAEA's eyes as 45 other member states,
including Germany."


9. (SBU) Mousavi laid out Iran's efforts "starting 50 years
ago" to develop a nuclear program with U.S., Canadian,
French, and West German assistance, and following its
ratification of the NPT in 1970, its receipt of widespread
international nuclear assistance. He claimed the U.S. had
even offered to support a nuclear fuel-cycle program for the
Shah, but that after the 1979 Iranian revolution, all western
aid stopped. He noted that under U.S. pressure, China
cancelled its uranium conversion cooperation with Iran, and
Russia "slowed down a hundred-fold" its cooperation on the
Bushehr light-water reactor. According to Mousavi, this
forced Iran to pursue a peaceful nuclear program
indigenously, but that in doing so, "Iran never violated any
rules, as we were not obliged to allow the IAEA into Natanz
until six months before nuclear material is introduced into
it, which we did."


10. (SBU) Mousavi claimed that Iran is playing a
constructive, transparent, role as it pursues its nuclear
program. "Iran has resisted the temptation to withdraw from
the NPT despite the unrelenting and unjustified pressure
against us. Iran has invited western companies, including
American companies, to participate in a consortium to develop
our civilian nuclear program. We are about to resolve all
remaining outstanding issues with the IAEA. Uranium
enrichment technology is our inalienable right. Even when we
did engage in good faith negotiations with the EU3 over our
program, the package they offered us to make us give up our
program was nothing more than an empty box of chocolates."
Mousavi acknowledged that the UNSC has adopted three Chapter
VII sanctions resolutions against Iran, but described those
UNSCRs as "incorrect decisions."


11. (SBU) Iran's nuclear program and its neighbors: Mousavi
insisted that Iran has "no specific dispute with our
neighbors that can be resolved with a nuclear weapon. The

ISTANBUL 00000287 003 OF 004


same should be insisted of the United States, which is arming
our neighbors with its own destabilizing, high-technology
weapons." Iran's nuclear program "is also not intended to
threaten Israel. Iran could never attack Israel with a
nuclear bomb. This would be impossible, and also suicidal,
because Iran cannot defend itself from a nuclear response by
the United States in defense of Israel." Mousavi pointed to
Russia as a guarantor of Iran's nuclear transparency:
"Russia has always demanded our transparency as a condition
for its cooperation on Bushehr. We have given Russia that
transparency, and now Bushehr will be ready to start up in
September. Russia has been far more effective than the U.S.
or EU in gaining our cooperation and transparency. Russia's
bilateral approach with us is working; let it keep working."



12. (SBU) Regional nuclear cooperation: Mousavi pressed
back against claims that a hydrocarbon-rich nation has no
need for a nuclear program, pointing to Middle East neighbors
who are in earlier stages of pursuing basic nuclear research
and energy options. Iran's nuclear program, he added, was
not a threat to the region but indeed an opportunity; Iran
would be willing to share its technological advances on
nuclear energy with its neighbors, including by offering them
participation in a uranium enrichment consortium in Iran.

The "real threat" to the region
--------------


13. (SBU) Mousavi identified "separatism, radicalism and
terrorism", including from Al-Qaida and the Taliban, as the
greatest threat to regional security, and reiterated Iran's
willingness to assist regional and Asian states to confront
these threats. "States of the region must cooperate more
effectively against these common threats. Regional
engagement, rather than deferring to American hegemony, is
the best way to secure our security." Strengthening Asian
security, Mousavi summed up, is a complex challenge that
requires sub-regional bilateral and multilateral efforts, and
requires key states in the region ("with the most to lose as
well as the most to offer") to step up and take leadership.
"Iran is ready to help."

Comment and bio note
--------------


14. (C) Mousavi's presentation was a surprising blend of
candor and dissimulation. As a career Iranian diplomat, he
is willing and able to speak reassuringly (especially to an
audience willing to give the benefit of the doubt) about
Iran's desire for improved relations with its neighbors. He
was also forthright in acknowledging that the primary reason
for Iran's efforts to improve neighborly relations is to
prevent the U.S. from taking military action against it, a
goal shared by most of Iran's neighbors. Mousavi was also
smart enough to recognize the need to try to portray Iran's
nuclear program in similarly reassuring light, though even a
smooth-talking diplomat like Mousavi could not avoid having
to resort to the "big lie" approach ("Iran has never violated
any IAEA rules") to put a peaceful, non-threatening face on
Iran's nuclear activities. He was also seemingly pragmatic
in explaining that Iran would be "suicidal" to ever attack
Israel in light of a likely devastating U.S. response.
Mousavi's presentation is consistent with other signs we have
seen in Istanbul of Iran trying to raise its diplomatic
profile in Turkey and the region, including via such regional
multilateral organizations as the ECO and the D-8 (reftels).



15. (C) Mousavi, a former Iranian Ambassador to several
central Asian countries, has been director of the Iranian
MFA's think-tank since 2002. As such, he is clearly a savvy
veteran of the European and Asian think-tank circuit, having
given at least a dozen presentations on Iranian foreign and
security policy at conferences outside Iran since 2005
(according to a Google search). He gave this presentation in
fluent English, and handled questions from the audience
smoothly. When Istanbul "Iran watcher" approached Mousavi
after his presentation to ask for a hard-copy, Mousavi
enthusiastically agreed, and also invited the USG to send a
participant to an IPIS conference in Tehran June 16-17 to
speak on Persian Gulf cooperation and security. (We accepted
a copy of his presentation, but declined the offer to go to
Tehran.) Mousavi's presentation is a reminder that despite
the sometimes clumsy, extremist foreign policy rhetoric from
Ahmadinejad and his close supporters, the Iranian regime also
still has at its disposal a cadre of sophisticated,
English-speaking, career diplomats who -- despite the recent
espionage case in Iran against one of their own (former

ISTANBUL 00000287 004 OF 004


Ambassador and nuclear negotiator Mousavian) -- remain
willing and able to play the "good cop" to the Ahmadinejad
team's "bad cop", in support of largely the same foreign
policy goals. End comment.
OUDKIRK