Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08ISTANBUL181
2008-04-11 15:04:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Istanbul
Cable title:  

AKP STATE MINISTER CUBUKCU PESSIMISTIC ON CLOSURE

Tags:  PGOV PREL TU 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO9856
PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHIT #0181/01 1021504
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 111504Z APR 08
FM AMCONSUL ISTANBUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8035
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISTANBUL 000181 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: AKP STATE MINISTER CUBUKCU PESSIMISTIC ON CLOSURE
CASE

REF: ANKARA 536

Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL SHARON WIENER, REASON 1.5.(D)


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISTANBUL 000181

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: AKP STATE MINISTER CUBUKCU PESSIMISTIC ON CLOSURE
CASE

REF: ANKARA 536

Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL SHARON WIENER, REASON 1.5.(D)



1. (C) Summary: State Minister Nimet Cubukcu expressed her
concerns regarding the Justice and Development Party (AKP)
closure case to Consul General at a small dinner party April
4 in Istanbul. Despite the "baseless" charges against the
party, Cubukcu expected the high court would ban the party if
the case went that far. This attack on the party reminded
Cubukcu of the injustices that occurred during the 1980
military administration. The AKP could successfully
eliminate the charges against it by amending the
constitution, yet Erdogan does not want to take this step at
this time. The closure case has unified the party base and
increased public support for the party, according to Cubukcu.
Erdogan explicitly asked his supporters not to go to the
streets and for AKP Parliament members to refrain from
commenting because the media -- which Cubukcu sees an
opponent of the AKP -- would claim the party is fomenting
unrest. Cubukcu said Erdogan is strongly committed to his
ideals and is capable of surprising his opponents and likely
to do so. End Summary.


2. (C) Founding Justice and Development Party (AKP) member
and State Minister Nimet Cubukcu stressed concern over the
AKP closure case to Consul General on April 4. At a small
dinner party in Istanbul hosted by AKP Istanbul Women's
Branch Director for International Relations Mutlu
Alkan-Kutukluoglu, Cubukcu told us her concern that the
judiciary is being used to achieve what opponents of AKP
failed to do at the ballot box. She claimed the case is
without merit, providing examples of these "baseless"
charges. Cubukcu, however, does not trust the judiciary to
fairly decide AKP's fate; she expects the high court would
rule against AKP if the case goes that far. Cubukcu said she
believes AKP's opponents want to ban the ruling party to
provide an opportunity for the opposition parties to seize
power. AKP opponents will expect the members from the banned
party to reorganize under a different name, yet the
opposition parties could use this transition period to snatch
the reins of power.

Increasing reminders of the 1980 coup

-------------- -


3. (C) Cubukcu lamented that the current situation is
bringing back sour memories of the military coup in 1980.
Her family suffered greatly after the coup; both her brother
and father were arrested during military rule. Her brother
was in prison for about six months, and the results from his
torture lingered for at least 10 years after his release.
Cubukcu explained this led her to study law and work to
defend human rights. She now fears AKP opponents are willing
to use desperate measures to remove AKP from power. AKP
success in managing the economy and winning elections has
limited the AKP's opponents' options for eliminating the
party. Cubukcu claimed AKP,s opponents are willing to ruin
Turkey's economy, end Turkey's bid for EU membership, and
destroy democracy in Turkey, in order to defeat AKP. Both
Cubukcu and Alkan-Kutukluoglu stated they saw military
invention as a possible response, if AKP survives the closure
case.

AKP,s Response
--------------


4. (C) According to Cubukcu, AKP could respond to the closure
case by amending the constitution and eliminating the legal
grounds supporting the current closure case (reftel).
Cubukcu acknowledged the party lacks the two-thirds support
to amend the constitution outright, but she was confident
there is enough support in the Parliament to send the
amendment to a popular referendum. Cubukcu claimed Prime
Minister Erdogan did not wish bring this to a public
referendum at this time, however she confidently stated this
referendum would pass with over 60 percent public support.
Moreover, Cubukcu asserted AKP could out-maneuver expected
legal challenges to the constitutional referendum itself.


5. (C) Cubukcu emphasized the closure case is unifying AKP
and increasing the party's popular support. AKP's grassroots
supporters understand this is a struggle for the life of the
movement and are rallying behind Erdogan. Before the closure
case many inside AKP, including Alkan-Kutukluoglu, were
criticizing government policies regarding the economy. Now,
anger directed at those who want to ban AKP has silenced
criticisms from within and reunified the party. Moderates who

ISTANBUL 00000181 002 OF 003


were not traditional AKP voters understand the ruling party
is not causing instability in Turkey. This group, which
includes many from the business community who support
Turkey's path to the EU and economic development, will also
continue to support AKP. Even people who would never vote
for AKP are critical of this judicial tactic to thwart
democracy, according to Cubukcu. AKP has a good grasp of the
public pulse since it conducts its own private polling;
however Cubukcu told us she has not seen the latest results
from these surveys.


6. (C) Both Cubukcu and Alkan-Kutukluoglu emphasized the
party is not going to hold mass protests over the closure
case. Despite the genuine anger of many AKP supporters, the
leadership prefers to pound the pavement and interact
face-to-face with voters. Staging protests would put this in
the hands of the media, one of the primary forces combating
AKP. Cubukcu added AKP could have sent two to three times the
number of protesters to the streets last year in response to
the "phony" protests of Abdullah Gul's presidential
candidacy. Cubukcu said Erdogan had a hard time keeping his
supporters off the streets, but he did not want to provide
ammunition for the media which would spin it to claim AKP was
causing instability in Turkey. Cubukcu accused the media of
manipulating stories, such as the closure case, to create
unrest in Turkey. Both Cubukcu and Alkan-Kutukluoglu
discounted claims that AKP,s actions are polarizing the
society, again accusing the media of intentionally causing
tensions.

Erdogan's Resolve
--------------


7. (C) Cubukcu stated she knows the Prime Minister very well
and understands his deep commitment to Turkey. He was willing
to go to prison again and is even willing "to be hanged" for
his beliefs, according to Cubukcu. He has in the past done
the unexpected, taking his opponents by surprise, Cubukcu
explained. Calling for early elections last year in response
to the campaign to block AKP's choice for president was a
bold move that caught the opposition off guard. AKP quickly
mobilized an election campaign while the opposition reacted
poorly to Erdogan's maneuver. She was confident that AKP can
always establish a new party under a different name and
return to politics.


8. (C) Cubukcu lamented the opportunity AKP lost after
winning the national elections. Had they worked "just one
more day a week", they could have kept their promise to send
a new constitution to Parliament. This revised constitution
would have included stricter rules for closing political
parties, thus preempting the current closure case.
Unfortunately, the presidential election and terror issues
distracted AKP from working on substantive constitutional
reform; however they should have worked overtime to ensure
the passage of the new constitution before the end of 2007,
according to Cubukcu. Now with the current crisis and the
real threat of being removed from power, Cubukcu was
pessimistic on achieving these reforms in the near future.

Defending the Three Children Policy
--------------


9. (SBU) In response to a question, Cubukcu explained the
media misrepresented Erdogan's "three children" statement.
Cubukcu acknowledged the government cannot tell people how
many children they should have, however, she added,
governments can have population policies. Growth rates in
Turkey are slowing down and the GOT could face problems
similar to what Europe is facing today, relying on an
immigrant workforce in response to an aging population.
Turkey would have this problem in 30 years if the country
does not work to keep a younger population; the most dynamic
section of a nation's population according to Cubukcu. To
maintain a relatively young society, Turkey needs to increase
the population growth rate to 2.8 percent annually, hence
Erdogan's encouragement for families to have three children.

Attitudes Towards the U.S.
--------------


10. (SBU) The Consul General noted public attitudes towards
the U.S. are noticeably better compared to her earlier time
in Turkey. During the 1970's the Consul General said she
frequently saw anti-American graffiti, which is absent today.
While poll numbers might be worse today, Turks do not
reflect this sentiment in everyday interactions with
Americans. Cubukcu agreed, saying anti-Americanism was much
deeper and widespread in the 70's; today most Turks genuinely

ISTANBUL 00000181 003 OF 003


like Americans, while the negative polling numbers mostly
reflect opinions towards U.S. polices.

Comment:
--------------


11. (C) Despite their resolve, Cubukcu and Alkan-Kutukluoglu
were pessimistic regarding the future of the party. Lost
opportunities, worsening economic conditions, and the
possibility of military intervention all weighed heavily on
both of them. Cubukcu was dismayed by the level of damage to
Turkey the opponents of AKP seem willing to inflict; even if
AKP weathers this storm, there will likely be a larger crisis
coming over the horizon. Both Cubukcu and Alkan-Kutukluoglu
displayed great admiration for Erdogan that went beyond
"party loyalty". Almost assuredly, they would follow him to
a new party if AKP were banned. In contrast, Erdogan's ban
from politics would deprive the movement--at least
temporarily--of a leader who plays a significant personal
role in attracting and motivating AKP's grassroots supporters.
WIENER