LONG-TIME AKP-ER HAS WEATHERED THE STORMS, DEBATES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 000147

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2018
TAGS: PGOV TU
SUBJECT: LONG-TIME AKP-ER HAS WEATHERED THE STORMS, DEBATES
U.S. SUPERPOWER


Classified By: Consul General Sharon A Wiener for reasons 1.4(b) and (d
).


1. (C) Summary. Nureddin Nebati, a leading businessman
associated with religiously-tied Independent Industrialists
and Businessmen's Association (MUSIAD) and a founding member
of the Justice and Development Party's (AKP) Istanbul branch,
along with AKP's Istanbul Deputy Chairman of Economic Affairs
Malih Bulu, an associate professor at Bogazici University,
discussed with us the founding of the AKP and Turkish views
of U.S. Nebati led us through the AKP's winding history,
warned of continuing negative Turkish public opinion of the
U.S., and shared his pessimistic evaluation of the U.S.
standing as the world's only superpower. Nebati, who has
weathered two party closures with Recep Tayyip Erdogan and
other key party members, suggested Erdogan realized the folly
of rigid adherence to traditional Islamist party doctrine and
adjusted ideology in founding the AKP to incorporate ideas
representative of the wider Turkish public. End Summary.


2. (C) Nureddin Nebati owns a successful high-class
children's clothing business and has seen the AKP through its
ups and downs. He lightheartedly described the time when he
was named a founding member of the Istanbul branch. Although
he was honored, it came as a surprise because he thought of
himself as a founding father on the national level. Rubbing
a hand over his short well-groomed beard, he blamed his
facial hair. When everyone in his previous party
affiliations sported traditional beards, he had stayed
clean-shaven. Now, when the party eschews beards to avoid
suspicions of fundamentalist agendas, Nebati does not shave.

AKP - From Ideologues to Compromisers
--------------


3. (C) Nebati described the evolution of the AKP, from its
roots as a reformist element in the Welfare (Refah) Party
(RP),through several forced closures, to its current
incarnation. Recalling the closure of AKP's first
predecessor party, the Welfare Party (RP),Nebati smiled,
saying he "wept" when the decision came out. He explained
that RP members followed Necmettim Erbakan's idealistic lead
unquestioningly, even promoting Islamic and anti-Western
views. One word from Erbakan after the court closed the RP
would have sent party members and supporters "into the
streets," ready to die for Erbakan's ideals. Thankfully for
Nebati, Erbakan did not incite his supporters to riot. When
the RP's successor, the Virtue Party, was also shut down,
Nebati said he was hardly fazed. He had been through it
before and knew what to do to get back on track, hence the
AKP.


4. (C) According to Nebati, both Erbakan and AKP party
leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan actively recruited intellectuals
and leading figures with differing views to secure a broader
support base and counter fears of an Islamist movement.
However, Nebati claimed Erbakan's recruitment was only "for
show," while he maintained strict control of the party's
ideology. Although Erdogan's strategy started out the same,
Nebati told us Erdogan realized the broader views and the
proposals they precipitated were what "the people wanted."
Erdogan and some AKP members, a group in which Nebati put
himself, decided that compromising on ideological issues and
abandoning harder lines to meet public demand was the
direction the AKP needed to take. Those unwilling to make
concessions to please the public broke into a fringe party
(Saadet) that stayed closer to Erbakan, while those willing
to compromise led AKP to become successful and popular,
Nebati explained.

Polls and Perspectives
--------------


5. (C) Bogazici University associate professor Malih Bulu
predicted that a poll taken of Turkish views of the U.S. now
would reflect around 30% approval (up from 9% in the last
poll) because of the intelligence sharing agreements and U.S.
support for Turkey's recent cross border operation. Nebati
contradicted him almost immediately, arguing that Turks'
negative opinion of the U.S. is deep-rooted. Turkish
disapproval of the U.S. stems from USG policies concerning
the Palestinians, Afghanistan and Iraq, coupled with a
perception that Americans view Islam negatively. These
opinions have not changed, Nebati asserted, and outweigh most
positive effects that Bulu mentioned. Moreover, Nebati
insisted that Turks want the USG to take responsibility for
Iraq and Afghanistan, including the "million" deaths in Iraq.


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6. (C) Nebati criticized American diplomats of the past and
foreign reporters, accusing them of listening to the opinions
of the secular, urban elite, and systematically ignoring the
non-urban, pious Turkish majority. Diplomats had failed to
capture the reality of Turkey, and were thus surprised by the
polls' overwhelmingly negative results, when they should have
known better. Efforts to learn more about the Iranian
diaspora in Turkey will have similarly skewed results, Nebati
argued, because that community represents only those Iranians
opposed to the current government in Tehran.

A Hidden Agenda
--------------


7. (C) Nebati told us negativity towards the U.S. is also fed
by a widespread perception in Turkey that the USG is pulling
the strings for selfish benefit, in Turkey and around the
world. According to Nebati, one theory on the USG's "hidden
agenda" speculates that current friendliness towards Turkey
is a ruse designed to gain Turkey's trust so the USG can more
easily pursue secret pro-Israel and pro-"Kurdistan" goals.
Carving a "Kurdistan" out of Turkey would only be one step on
the path, according to this conspiracy, because the final
vision is a "greater Israel," encompassing all the land from
Israel to Mesopotamia. This theory is one that Erbakan is
known to have promoted during his heyday. Yildirim joked
that the Turk on the street is renowned for blaming the U.S.
for anything from government quarrels to earthquakes. Nebati
gently but firmly maintained that the USG's perceived
omnipresence should not be so easily dismissed.


8. (C) Bulu responded that he was no longer convinced the
USG is focused on taking over Turkey or that U.S. policy
makers even place much importance on Turkey. Time he spent
in Washington, DC "shocked" him; officials in Washington and
the governors of Mississippi and Minnesota knew little, if
anything, about Turkey. Many misconceptions exist about U.S.
interest in Turkey, he said, urging the U.S. to reach out to
Turks with the truth. False impressions are so widespread in
Turkey that they are often accepted without second thought,
he warned. While Nebati did not comment on his colleague's
statements about his disillusionment in Washington, he did
agree that the U.S. must work to counteract widespread
misunderstandings, saying that perceptions are important,
even if they are not ultimately accurate.

Superpower or Failing Power
--------------


9. (C) Bulu discussed a version of the Hegemonic Stability
Theory, claiming the world had experienced unprecedented
peace while the U.S. has been the only superpower. He said
the world would be in for huge economic and political shocks
and even "World War Three" if the U.S. loses its sole
superpower standing. Bulu advocated that Turkey and other
countries work to support the U.S. and the dollar because
their economic and social wellbeing is tied to U.S.
stability. Bulu dismissed Russia's importance as a rising
power, calling it the "second Saudi Arabia" with little or no
manufacturing base.


10. (C) Nebati, on the other hand, compared the world power
structure to a seesaw on which the balance is changing. The
U.S. will not be able to hover at the high end as the
unchallenged superpower for much longer, he cautioned with a
smile. The only choice Nebati saw for the U.S. is whether to
come down slowly or painfully fast because Russia, China, and
India are rushing to overtake U.S. power. He told us Turkey
is actively expanding its influence in Asia and Africa to
better position itself in the post-U.S. superpower world
order. Bulu, on the other hand, predicted that if the U.S.
works closely with Turkey, there will be numerous
opportunities to develop "win-win" situations, suggesting
that a resurgence of Ottoman-style Turkish influence in the
region could also bring stability to the former Ottoman
territories of the Middle East, Balkans, and Central Asia.


11. (C) Comment. Throughout the meeting, Nebati was
pleasant, eloquent, and at ease, even when he rattled off
conspiracy theories and predicted a U.S. fall from power.
His effortless familiarity with the AKP, as demonstrated by
the names he dropped, and the deference the other
participants in the conversation showed him gave the
impression that he has significant influence in the AKP,
despite holding no major position. End comment.

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