NEW IRI POLL: ZARDARI BLAMED FOR PAKISTAN'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 003796

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/08/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PINR MOPS PK
SUBJECT: NEW IRI POLL: ZARDARI BLAMED FOR PAKISTAN'S
PROBLEMS; SUPPORT FOR WAR ON TERROR DEPENDS ON WORDING

REF: ISLAMABAD 2415

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (C) Summary: The latest International Republican Institute
poll, funded by the National Endowment for Democracy and
conducted at the end of October, found this GOP as unpopular
as the previous administration of former President Pervez
Musharraf. Current President Asif Zardari is taking the
blame for the bad security and economic situation throughout
the country and is bested, by a significant margin, by
opposition leader Nawaz Sharif. The Army's popularity has
risen over the last several months, and fewer Pakistanis
would now be concerned with its involvement in civilian
government. These are notable changes from IRI's June poll.
The public is more concerned than before with extremism and
Al Qaeda/Taliban activities, but they are also more concerned
about alleged U.S. drone attacks. IRI, in this poll, tested
a number of alternate themes and terms, and found that
support for the war on terror, the Pakistan Army's operations
against militants, and the GOP's cooperation with the U.S.
could all go up by considerable amounts. End summary.

Baseline & Bottomline
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2. (C) The International Republican Institute (IRI) is
prepared to release as early as December 11 its latest
Pakistan-wide poll. This is the ninth such poll conducted by
IRI in over two years, based on in-home interviews of 3,500
persons from October 15 - 30. (Note: As a point of
historical reference, the Marriott bombing occurred on
September 20.)


3. (C) Generally, the poll found growing public discontent at
levels comparable to that at the end of the Musharraf
administration before the February 18 parliamentary
elections. This discontent shades evaluations of the
economic and security crises, political leaders, especially
President Zardari, and even democracy itself. Zardari's
Pakistan People's Party (PPP) is bearing the brunt of the
souring mood, losing the support of some former PPP voters.
IRI's June poll foreshadowed the now evident trend.

Terror...
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4. (C) According to the IRI poll, all indices showing concern
about terrorism are up, with 78 percent of Pakistanis saying
they feel less secure now than a year ago, citing by 51
percent Al Qaeda/Taliban as a "serious problem," and backing
the Army's fight against extremists (38 percent),Al Qaeda
(34 percent),and the Taliban (30 percent). The previous 64
percent who supported peace deals with militants went down to
54 percent. More think Pakistan should cooperate with the
U.S. on the war on terror (WoT) (from 15 percent up to 28
percent),and their support of the WoT also went up slightly
(from nine percent in June to 15 percent now).


5. (C) More disheartening, a full 50 percent are unsure of
who bears responsibility for the September 20 bombing of the
Islamabad Marriott, and 20 percent actually blame the U.S.
Only seven percent became more supportive of the Army's
counterterrorism campaign because of the bombing, while 24
percent became less supportive and 42 percent were unmoved.
This latter group uniformly oppose Army actions as well as
cooperation with the U.S. Though the numbers have dropped,
Pakistanis still view Al Qaeda (14 percent) and the Taliban
(21 percent) more favorably than the U.S. (eight percent).
The poll found overall that Pakistanis who were more
educated, wealthy, urban, secular and living farther from the
frontier were less supportive of the war on terror and
related policies.

... By Any Other Name
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6. (C) Only 13 percent agreed with the statement: "I support
the U.S. making military incursions in the tribal areas," and
54 percent were more concerned about alleged U.S. missile
strikes from Afghanistan into Pakistan than Al Qaeda/Taliban
attacks from bases in Pakistan into Afghanistan. But 49

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percent thought: "The U.S. should assist Pakistan in fighting
foreign extremists in the tribal areas," including missile
strikes if the GOP is informed first and action is
"coordinated." A similarly phrased message increases support
for direct Army action to 63 percent. And 66 percent agreed
that "extremists" killing innocents is "prohibited by the
Qur'an" and "brings disgrace upon our religion of peace."


7. (C) Breaking down the numbers, IRI found support for the
Army's counterterrorism campaign increased by 7 points when
the fight was against "extremists" instead of the "Taliban"
or "Al Qaeda." Extremism was considered more of a problem,
16 percent more, than the two named terrorist organizations.
Many Pakistanis also accepted the message that "foreign
fighters" were killing innocent Pakistanis and, consequently,
weakening the nation. These new messages drew support across
the board, particularly in Sindh and the Northwest Frontier
Province (NWFP). Again, the older and more affluent the
respondent, the less support even these terms garner.

Little Credit
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8. (C) Pakistanis are still pessimistic about their future;
88 percent think their country is moving in the wrong
direction, but 86 percent thought this in June (when
Musharraf was still president) and 84 percent thought this in
January (when Musharraf's Pakistan Muslim League (PML) still
controlled government). It also appears the PPP's honeymoon
is over; the National Assembly's favorabilities are down from
81 percent to 56 percent and the government in general is
down from 85 percent to 31 percent. The "opposition" writ
large, on the other hand, is up to 31 percent once the
Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) formally left the
coalition in late August.


9. (C) Pakistanis continue to have economic-related concerns,
citing inflation (58 percent),unemployment (12 percent),
poverty (seven percent),and electricity and water (seven
percent) at the top. Since June, however, the occurrence of
suicide bombings now ranks for the public in the top three
issues. The on-going saga of whether and how to restore to
the courts the pre-November 2007 judges has fallen off the
radar. The public is supportive of the deposed judges, when
specifically asked, but generally agree with the sentiment:
"Musharraf has been removed and 58 of the 64 deposed judges
have been restored; rather than more protesting and
instability, it is time focus on more important issues such
as the economy and security." Lawyers' movement leader
Aitzaz Ahsan and former Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar
Chaudhry saw their likability plummet since June.

The Horse Race
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10. (C) The ruling PPP, and President Zardari specifically,
is taking the hit for the economic and security crises. The
PPP-led GOP is now just as unpopular as the former ruling
Pakistan Muslim League (PML) going into the February 18
parliamentary elections. Only 21 percent feel the GOP is
addressing the important issues; PML in the January poll
earned 18 percent. The general discontent with this
government may also be souring perceptions of democracy and,
conversely, pushing up the Army's image and an acceptance of
its role in civilian government. Favorabilities on the
police and Army are up, reaching 43 percent and 68 percent,
respectively. Only 49 percent now feel the Army should have
no role in civilian government, down from 62 percent in June,
and 48 percent thought the civilian government should have
only "some control" over the military.


11. (C) PML-N's Nawaz Sharif, like the Army, is also
benefiting from the public's anger. Nawaz appears to have
solidified the center-right electorate and is even polling
well with former PPP voters, who say they dislike Zardari.
Instead of potentially voting for the PML-N, however, this
group accounts for a new development -- as many as 18 percent
say they will not vote in the next elections. Alarmingly,
nearly half of this number are Pashtuns, who would
historically back the secular Awami National Party (ANP),a
party in the current coalition government and lead party in
the Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP).

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12. (C) About 60 percent blame Zardari for breaking up the
previous grand coalition with the PML-N. Now that that
coalition is history, a whopping 72 percent of Nawaz backers
seem willing to join forces with Musharraf's PML, and 47
percent of PML supporters would choose a coalition with
PML-N. This potentially leaves PPP out in the cold. If
elections were held now, the party would garner only 19
percent of the vote, equal to President Zardari's approval
rating (19 percent). Almost as many voters would not vote or
do not know for whom they would vote. Meanwhile, PML-N has
maintained its lead at 35 percent. Head-to-head, Nawaz beats
Zardari 31 points to eight, and 59 percent would rather see
Nawaz as president as opposed to 19 percent who like Zardari
in the chair.


13. (C) Comment: While it is encouraging that more Pakistanis
are taking the terrorist threat seriously, it is
disheartening that they still represent only a minority. It
is possible, however, that re-worked messages could garner
more public support for actions against militants by the
Pakistan Army and potentially in coordination with us.
Meanwhile, the overwhelming security and economic crises have
badly undercut the secular PPP in favor of the more
conservative PML-N. Though the PML-N is also a secular
party, it curries favor with the religious right, advocating
dialogue with militant groups, for example. Like the
Musharraf administration before it, this latest IRI poll
shows that, if this PPP-led government cannot address the
general discontent of the populace, it too will lose all
popular support and, possibly, its power. End comment.

PATTERSON