ZARDARI REACHES OUT TO BALOCHISTAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 003533

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/10/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PK
SUBJECT: ZARDARI REACHES OUT TO BALOCHISTAN

REF: ISLAMABAD 3374

ISLAMABAD 00003533 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (C) Summary: In a marked change from the previous
government, President Zardari has been reaching out to the
oft forgotten province of Balochistan. Especially after the
October 29 earthquake, Zardari is intensifying GOP efforts to
settle a long-simmering Baloch rebellion through political
reconciliation with Pakistan's largest (in area) and least
developed province. The people of Balochistan, though still
wary of promises from Islamabad, have welcomed Zardari's
confidence building measures. These include removal of 35
Frontier Corps checkposts, release of hundreds of Balochis
arrested on politically-motivated charges, and a four-hour
meeting between Zardari and 42 Baloch leaders. Zardari wants
political reconcilation to improve the security necessary for
energy development and remove ongoing irritants originating
in Balochistan to Pakistan's relations with India and
Afghanistan. Baloch militants remain skeptical of Zardari's
outreach, and their agreed cease-fire remains tenuous; the
key to reconciliation will be local revenue sharing of
Balochistan's natural gas resources. End summary.

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ZARDARI- A SON OF BALOCHISTAN
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2. (C) Even before his election to the presidency, Asif
Zardari set up a reconciliation committee to "assure the
people of Balochistan that the Pakistan People's Party-led
government sincerely aims at resolution of all their issues
immediately without any delay." Zardari described his vision
as resolving all Baloch issues through political
consultations and not by confrontation. The people of
Balochistan have been encouraged by Zardari's positive
rhetoric, which they see in sharp contrast to the military
approach of the last government.


3. (C) Additionally, as an ethnic Baloch who speaks Balochi,
Zardari is regarded as someone who might understand Baloch
concerns. His most popular pronouncement has been that the
people of Balochistan "have first right over their natural
resources"- addressing one of the main Baloch complaints that
natural gas and other resources are shipped out of
Balochistan without just compensation to the people of the
province. (Note: In fact, the Balochistan provincial assembly
and Chief Minister are preparing a resolution to demand a
royalty and transit fee for the IPI gas pipeline. Article 161
of the Pakistani Constitution guarantees that the royalties
from natural gas wells will be given to the province where
the well-head is located. End Note.)


4. (C) In addition to public announcements, the PPP-led
government has released over 800 political Baloch prisoners
and, under Zardari's instructions, nearly all cases against
the Baloch resistance politicians have been dropped,
including many against tribal leaders Nawabs Marri and
Mengal. On June 17, Prime Minister Gilani announced a 6
billion rupee (USD 76 million) grant for Balochistan from his
discretionary funds and on October 20 he announced an
additional 3 billion rupees (USD 38 million) for provincial
debt relief. In light of the October 29 earthquake, Islamabad
has sent 250 million rupees (USD 3.2 million) for immediate
relief and has promised 370 million (USD 4.7 million) more
for rehabilitation and reconstruction. Quetta continues to
face financial woes, which the State Bank of Pakistan has
tried to mitigate by extending a generous financial package.
(See Reftel).

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OUTREACH & CEASE-FIRE
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5. (C) In terms of direct political reconciliation, Interior
Minister Rehman Malik has been able to achieve some political
ground with Nawab Akbar Bugti's son, Nawab Talal Bugti.
(Note. Nawab Akbar Bugti, the former leader of the Bugti
tribe, was killed in August 2006 in an alleged Pakistani
military bombing operation. Balochis point to his death as a
symbol of Islamabad's oppression of Balochistan. End Note.)
Malik went to Quetta on August 28 and met with leaders of all

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the nationalist parties and spoke with tribal leaders Nawab
Ataullah Mengal and Nawab Khair Bakhsh Marri. In preparation
for Malik's visit, PPP officials had been reaching out to all
the Baloch nationalists and insurgents. At the end of his
visit, Malik announced that the military and paramilitary
forces would be gradually replaced by civilian law
enforcement- an announcement lauded by all Baloch nationalist
parties. Significantly, Malik also ordered the Frontier Corps
to remove 35 checkposts from various areas of Balochistan.


6. (C) On September 1, three Baloch nationalist insurgent
groups, including Baloch Liberation Army (BLA),Balochistan
Liberation Front, and Balochistan National Front, announced
an unconditional cease-fire. Most observers credited this
cease-fire to the outreach by Malik and other PPP leaders.
However, since the cease-fire announcement two violent
incidents have marred the tenuous peace. On September 17, a
former commander of Nawab Akbar Bugti and now a
pro-government leader, Painda Khan, was seriously injured by
a roadside bomb in Dera Bugti for which insurgents have
claimed responsibility. On September 26, 19 insurgents were
killed after they attacked a Frontier Corps convoy.


7. (C) According to Consulate Karachi sources, the BLA
claims that GOP military operations are on-going and has
demanded release of all political detainees and resettlement
of up to 150,000 refugees displaced by years of fighting.
Some suggest that the BLA's decision to support a cease-fire
was merely designed to buy time to re-arm.

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RECONCILIATION COMMITTEE
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8. (C) President Zardari has appointed top PPP interlocutors
to the "Shaheed Benazir Bhutto Reconciliation Committee on
Balochistan." Senator Babar Awan, secretary of the committee
and Minister of Parliamentary Affairs, publicly announced the
government's three-prong strategy in Balochistan:
reconciliation with all political forces, rebuilding national
institutions, and reallocating resources. Others on this
executive committee include: Senator Raza Rabbani
(parliamentary leader of the Senate),Nawab Lashkari Raisaani
(President of PPP, Balochistan),and Mir Ijaz Jhakrani (a
member of the National Assembly and an important ethnic
Baloch tribal leader). The committee has reiterated Zardari's
stance that Balochistan's problems can not be solved
militarily and must be done through confidence building with
all Baloch stakeholders.


9. (C) Dr. Awan has started progress on the committee's
five-point roadmap for implementation:
-A jirga with Baloch intellectuals, farmers, journalists, and
other stakeholders;
-A second jirga with all political parties in Balochistan;
-A meeting of the Balochistan Provincial Assembly to discuss
problems and recommendations;
-Prominent members of the Balochistan Provincial Assembly
will report findings to the National Assembly;
-Finally, a joint session of the National Assembly and the
Senate will deliberate a final implementation plan to include
legal and constitutional solutions.


10. (C) The first meeting with Baloch stakeholders was held
in Islamabad on October 30. The entire reconciliation
committee and President Zardari met with 42 Baloch farmers,
intellectuals, journalists, and writers. The meeting did not
include Baloch politicians. Most of the Baloch stakeholders
came to Islamabad doubting the government's sincerity and
fearing that this meeting would be another public relations
display with no concrete deliverables. The Baloch farmers
stood up and even challenged President Zardari that if this
was just a nice trip to Islamabad, then he was wasting
"Punjab's money."


11. (C) According to Nusrat Baloch -- the editor of
Balochistan's largest Urdu daily and one of the defacto
leaders of the Baloch intelligentsia who took part in the
meeting -- the 42 Baloch representatives came from every
different strata of society and were pleasantly surprised by
the level of respect and attention afforded to them.
President Zardari sat with the representatives for four hours

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-- two hours longer than scheduled -- and listened to every
complaint and suggestion offered. Most of the interlocutors
stressed the need for employment, education, health, and food
assistance. Others raised questions about Islamabad's
communication with traditional Baloch leaders from the
Mengal, Marri, and Bugti tribes. Nusrat Baloch noted that
stakeholders were impressed by Zardari's response that he was
in constant and close communication with the tribal leaders
and they need not worry about this. There were some issues,
such as the complete withdrawal of the Pakistani military,
which the Baloch avoided because they wanted to focus on more
tenable demands. The participants reportedly left feeling
optimistic and hopeful that Zardari might actually be able to
deliver on his promises to Balochistan.

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SHAHBAZ SHARIF OFFERING PUNJAB'S HELP
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12. (C) In a bid for PML-N support in Balochistan, Punjab
Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif has also been making prominent
gestures to bring aid to Balochistan. With Zardari's
approval, Shahbaz Sharif has invited all the provincial Chief
Ministers to set up a platform for provincial coordination
and harmony. Using this new committee and also the
comparatively vast resources of Punjab, Shahbaz Sharif has
made several visits to extend monetary and in-kind help to
Quetta's new provincial government, including additional
wheat supplies and additional scholarships for Baloch
students in Punjabi universities.


13. (C) Sharif has also been attempting a public relations
campaign by visiting Nawab Bugti's former residence and
offering condolences to his son. He publicly condemned the
killing of Bugti and the injustices against the Pashtun and
Baloch peoples. The Punjab Chief Minister offered a "blank
check" from Punjab to Balochistan to help its financial woes.
Most local observers credit the Punjab-based Sharif's
newfound interest in Balochistan to constituent-building
ahead of local elections scheduled for August 2009.


14. (C) Comment: Zardari's interest in political
reconciliation reflects long-standing PPP promises but also
is highly pragmatic. The PPP-led government does not need
another front in a growing militant insurgency in the Pashtun
tribal areas. Some of the hardest hit areas of the October
earthquake in Balochistan include Pashtun villages.
According to various Pakistani sources, the ongoing Baloch
secessionist movement has undermined Indo-Pak relations by
attracting unhelpful Indian intelligence agency meddling.
Likewise, Islamabad's relationship with Kabul suffered
because the former Musharraf government repeatedly accused
the GOA of giving wanted Bugti terrorists refuge from
Pakistani law. Zardari also desperately needs energy
resources, and repeated Baloch militant attacks on power
lines and/or natural gas development exacerbate an already
dire nation-wide energy shortage. The proposed IPI pipeline
cannot be built or maintained unless security conditions
improve. The area is also a transit point with Iran for the
Afghan drug traffic that helps fund the insurgency on the
Pak-Afghan border. Political reconcilation and some revenue
sharing will be key to addressing these issues. End comment.
PATTERSON