Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08ISLAMABAD3456
2008-11-03 10:33:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Islamabad
Cable title:  

PAKISTAN SEEKING WATER AS COMPENSATION IN DISPUTE WITH

Tags:  ECON ETRD EAID EFIN ENGY PK 
pdf how-to read a cable
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 003456 

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON ETRD EAID EFIN ENGY PK
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN SEEKING WATER AS COMPENSATION IN DISPUTE WITH
INDIA

REF: Islamabad 3169

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 003456

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON ETRD EAID EFIN ENGY PK
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN SEEKING WATER AS COMPENSATION IN DISPUTE WITH
INDIA

REF: Islamabad 3169


1. (SBU) Summary: Faced with a 34 percent drop in water levels,
Pakistan alleges that India did not release Pakistan's share of
Chanab River water from the Baglihar Dam and after two recent
delegations have unsuccessfully visited India to resolve the water
dispute, Pakistan may seek compensation under the Indus Basin Water
Treaty. Officially, India dispels Pakistani claims but
unofficially, the Indian side admits that "structural constraints of
Baglihar Dam and weather constraints" have resulted in a reduction
of Pakistan's share of water. The water shortage will likely lower
winter crop yields as irrigation levels are lower and has already
resulted in increased blackouts due to reduced hydroelectric power
generation. Furthermore, this dispute is reigniting anti-India
sentiment in Pakistan. End summary.


2. (SBU) Two Pakistani delegations visited India during the time
period of October 18 through October 25 to investigate Pakistan's
allegations that India has violated the bilateral Indus Water Basin
Treaty by releasing Pakistan's share of the Chanab River water. In
September, Pakistan's Indus Water Commission claimed India released
0.22 million cusecs (a cusec is one cubic foot) of water instead of
the agreed 0.55 billion cusecs due to India's unscheduled filling of
the reservoir above the newly constructed Baglihar Dam in India.
The first delegation, headed by Pakistan Indus Water Commissioner
Jamaat Ali Shah, visited the Baglihar Dam site for inspection of the
actual water levels between October 18 and October 20. Shah
subsequently led another GOP delegation to attend a regularly
scheduled meeting of the Permanent Indus Water Commission between
October 22 and October 25.


3. (SBU) Water Commissioner Shah told EconOff on October 31 that
"after the visit to Baglihar Dam the Pakistani side does not have
any doubt that the Indian side did hold Pakistan's share of the
water" in September while the reservoir was filled. He maintained
that the Indian side only provided daily water discharge data from
Baglihar Dam and refused to give the raw hourly data saying "they do
not see the need for it."


4. (SBU) Shah said that officially the Indian side dispelled
Pakistani claims that India illegally held water and did not agree
to pay compensation to Pakistan. Unofficially, the Indian side
agreed that "structural constraints of Baglihar Dam and weather
constraints" due to reduced rainfall resulted in a reduction of
Pakistan's share. Shah reported to EconOff that at a dinner for the
Permanent Indus Water Commission meeting hosted on October 23,
Indian Water Secretary Mr. Panjiar told Pakistan's Ambassador to
India Shahid Malik and Commissioner Shah that the decision to pay
compensation has to be taken at the highest levels of government and
the Water Commissioner cannot make such a decision on behalf of
India.


5. (SBU) Publicly, Shah has told the local media that bilateral
talks were "not inconclusive" but maintained that after a
verification of Pakistan's assessment the Indian authorities would
have to increase the release of water as compensation. Shah said he
"told the Indian counterparts that Pakistan is ready to facilitate
resolution by not labeling the issue a 'violation' of Indus Water
Treaty. Instead the Indians can say that 'upon Pakistan's request,
India has agreed to release extra water' because the farmers are
hurting on the Pakistani side." He referenced a similar arrangement
in 1987 when India held water to fill the Salal Dam on the Chanab
River.


6. (SBU) Privately, GOP officials acknowledge they are very worried
about future plans for India to build numerous other dams
(reportedly up to eight additional dams) on the Chanab River and the
likelihood that water scarcity driven by India's increased usage
will become a more frequent occurrence in Pakistan. GOP officials
also privately acknowledge that any dispute resolution can be more
effective and more quickly obtained if Pakistan seeks increased
water inflows as compensation rather than a monetary value.


7. (SBU) Pakistan has invited Indian officials to visit Head Marala;
the water gauge point on the Pakistani side, to measure the water
received from India but dates for the Indian delegation's visit are
not confirmed yet. Shah said "we are willing to share raw hourly

ISLAMABAD 00003456 002 OF 002


data with the Indians to prove our claims" that our levels have
dropped significantly.


8. (SBU) Comment. Pakistan is facing a 34 percent water shortage
which translates into lower crop yields for winter wheat as
irrigation levels are lowered and has already resulted in extended
blackouts across the country due to reduced hydropower production.
This water issue has the potential to become an official 'dispute'
under the Indus Basin Water Treaty if left unresolved and has
already resulted in increased anti-India sentiment among the local
population. End Comment.

PATTERSON