MINI-JIRGA ENDORSES OUTREACH TO "ALL THOSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ISLAMABAD 003431

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/28/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PK
SUBJECT: MINI-JIRGA ENDORSES OUTREACH TO "ALL THOSE
INVOLVED IN OPPOSITION"

REF: PESHAWAR 493

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary. The Pak-Afghan mini-jirga meeting in
Islamabad concluded October 28 after two days with an
agreement to form follow-up committees on both sides of the
border tasked with opening a dialogue with the "opposition,"
defined by Pakistani jirga leader Governor Ghani as "all
those involved in the conflict today" who recognize
constitutional governments. According to Afrasiab Khattak,
who represented the Awami National Party at the meeting,
little further action is expected until the next meeting in
Kabul, perhaps in December. There was very little discussion
of the August 2007 Peace Jirga proposals to work on issues
like trade and curbing drug trafficking. Instead, the
meeting focused on the idea of negotiations with the
opposition as a means of conflict resolution. End Summary.


2. (C) The long-delayed mini-jirga follow-up to the August
2007 Peace Jirga in Kabul took place in Islamabad on October
27-28. Pakistan's delegation was led by Northwest Frontier
Province (NWFP) Governor Owais Ghani, while Foreign Minister
Shah Mahmood Qureshi was the host; President Zardari hosted a
dinner for the group on October 28. Afghanistan's delegation
was led by former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah. Awami
National Party (ANP) leader Asfundyar Wali Khan was cited in
the press as attending, but ANP actually was represented by
Afrasiab Khan Khattak Please see reftel for the list of
Pakistani attendees. Post has sent the text of the
concluding resolution to SCA/PB.


3. (U) In the press conference given the evening of October
28, NWFP Governor Ghani clarified that "the opposition" means
"all those involved in the conflict today." He and Abdullah
said the term "the opposition" was agreed at last year's
Peace Jirga held in Afghanistan and its agreement there paved
the way for its use in Islamabad. Ghani and Abdullah also
implied that contacts had yet to be made with "the
opposition" which they allowed meant the Taliban. They said
the identity of delegates to the mini-jirga would be
protected in order to enable their contact with "the
opposition." Abdullah steadfastly deflected a taken question
suggesting the conflict was between U.S. and NATO forces on
one side and Al Qaida on another.

Why Now ?
--------------


4. (U) Asked why the Mini-jirga was so long in coming and
whether an opportunity had been lost, Abdullah said it was
possible an opportunity had been lost as the conflict had now
spread beyond the border area. He said an opportunity may
have been gained in that Pakistan was now led by democratic
leadership, adding that "Mrs. Bhutto after all was murdered
by this oppressor." Seeking to deflate the charge that the
mini-jirga had been held hostage to the fluctuation in
relations between the two governments, Governor Ghani said,
"It came late but it came strong."


5. (U) Abdullah said that one point which was not negotiable
was the constitutional supremacy of both nations. He said
the door had always been open for those that accepted this
but that, after the decisions taken at the mini-jirga, "now
the door was open wide."

Taliban made "More Rigid"
--------------


6. (C) During a meeting October 29, Awami National Party
(ANP) jirga delegate Afrasiab Khattak told Polcouns that both
sides are now charged with forming committees to engage in
the "dialogue with the opposition." Polcouns asked under
what terms that dialogue would take place. Khattak said that
would be decided by the committees which would establish
their own rules. He suggested that little activity would
take place beyond the creation of committees prior to the
next jirga, meant to be held in Kabul, perhaps in December.
Khattak was critical of Governor Ghani, who the ANP wants
replaced with an ANP candidate. Khattak claimed that Ghani
was representing the interests of ISI and the military, which
allegedly wanted to retain their ties to the Taliban and thus
were supporting negotiations. He said his own position was
that, while it may be necessary to talk to the Taliban, he
could not support negotiations until they renounced violence
and terrorism; they had done neither. Khattak added that the
"talk of talks" with the Taliban "will only make them more
rigid." He said he had heard from several sources, including
one in the Gulf, that al Qaida leaders said there would be no
talks with Afghanistan leaders but only with NATO forces and
the USG. Khattak said, in his view, the "talk of talks" was
emboldening Taliban leaders who felt they could brush past
interlocutors. He felt that momentum for the negotiations
was built on Afghanistan President Karzai's quest for
reelection.

Qureshi on Terrorism
--------------


7. (U) FM Qureshi's public statements at the top of the
meeting October 27 were mostly a rehashing and endorsement of
the Pakistani parliament's joint resolution on security.
Qureshi said, "Afghanistan and Pakistan have both suffered
immensely and continue to suffer at the hands of extremism,
militancy and terrorism. This is the gravest threat to both
countries. Pakistan and Afghanistan, therefore, need to
cooperate closely to effectively counter and completely
eliminate this curse. Representatives of the people of
Pakistan unanimously declared the nations' firm resolve to
stand united against this growing menace, and to address its
root causes. Pakistan's territory shall not be used for any
kind of attacks on other countries, and foreign fighters, if
found, will be expelled from our soil. At the same time,
Pakistan's' sovereignty and territorial integrity shall be
safeguarded at all costs."

...And Reconciliation
--------------


8. (U) On reconciliation, Qureshi said: "Dialogue will be
given high priority with all those willing to abide by the
Constitution of Pakistan and rule of law and development of
the arrested areas will be expedited. For lasting success,
negotiations and reconciliation must be as essential part of
the process. The wrongs and neglect of the past must be
corrected. Political, economic, and social reforms must
proceed hand in hand. We must not shut doors of negotiations
to those sons of the soil. The distinguished jirga members
imbibe the true spirit of tribal traditions and wisdom in
peacefully resolving complex issues. We have full trust in
your collective wisdom and our ability to navigate your way
to success."

Abdullah: "terrorism and extremism has ruined Afghanistan"
-------------- --------------


9. (U) Afghanistan FM Abdullah Abdullah's public remarks
were a call for joint action. He said, "both countries have
abilities to counter terrorism and extremism. Afghanistan is
ready to work with Pakistan to face challenges. Terrorism
and extremism has ruined Afghanistan. There is (a) dire need
to highlight (the) true image of Islam at (the) international
level. Afghanistan can enter in dialogue with those who want
peace and development in the country."

Zardari on Dialogue
--------------


10. (C) In a briefing to missions October 30, the German
Ambassador told us that the subjects of the mini-jirga and
"dialogue" were discussed in the October 28 meeting between
German FM Frank-Walter Steinmeier and President Asif Zardari.
Zardari told Steinmeier he was "deeply skeptical" of the
value of dialogue, but said "at the end it will be necessary
but only from a position of strength."


11. (C) Comment: The jirga's unfortunate focus on
negotiations should not come as a surprise. Pakistani elites
(including Governor Ghani, some tribal political leaders and
the media) have seized upon the coincident release of remarks
by the UK Ambassador to Kabul suggesting we cannot win in
Afghanistan, statements by several U.S. officials
re-iterating our policy of outreach to reconcilables in
Afghanistan, and reports of a Saudi-brokered negotiation
between Kabul and the Taliban to assume there is a green
light for negotiations with militants on both sides of the
border. The Pakistani media is misquoting or twisting
official U.S. statements to make it appear as if there is a
new U.S. policy on this issue. All of this is feeding an
audience that, despite the stated resolve of the Pakistani
military and government, still wants to believe that the
militants can be wished away with only negotiations. The
Pakistani parliament's joint resolution against terror was a
welcome consensus document, but it, too, focused on the
negotiations angle to paper over concern about military
action that continues to produce collateral civilian
destruction. The GOP has begun a fledgling hearts and minds
campaign, but they need to do more.
PATTERSON