FATA UPDATE - 24 OCTOBER 2008

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 003419

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2018
TAGS: PREF PGOV PTER PREL MOPS PK
SUBJECT: FATA UPDATE - 24 OCTOBER 2008

REF: A. A) ISLAMABAD 3348

B. B) ISLAMABAD 3332

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (C) Summary: Pakistani military operations in Bajaur
continue, but Inspector General Frontier Corps MG Tariq Khan
says his forces are making good progress. They have cleared
most of the main towns and the main road, and say they have
taken the town of Lowi Sam, although attacks by militants
continue. USAID's Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI) has
managed to open an office in Khar, Bajaur's main town, with
the strong support of the Political Agent. However, the
security situation has not yet allowed distribution of relief
items to begin in earnest. There are encouraging signs in
other agencies in the FATA. With the military's progress in
Bajaur, and some opening by local political leaders to
government help, we may have the opportunity to assist the
Pakistanis in a more robust way. Septel will lay out
Embassy's most recent assessment of needs across the
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Northwest
Frontier Province (NWFP) through the winter. End Summary.

SOME PROGRESS IN BAJAUR
--------------


2. (SBU) Pakistani military operations continue in Bajaur
Agency in the FATA, as well as in Swat district in NWFP.
Inspector General of the Frontier Corps Major General Tariq
Khan told the press October 25 that security forces are now
in control of most of the main areas of Bajaur, including the
town of Lowi Sam (near the border with Mohmand Agency,
another militant stronghold). However, sporadic attacks by
militants around Lowi Sam continue. The Pakistani Army claims
to have regained control of the Peshawar-Bajaur road by
establishing a series of checkpoints and bunkers along the
way.


3. (SBU) Tariq Khan has been quoted variously as saying
operations would continue for another few weeks to another
few months. Aid agencies are expecting the security
situation to remain unsettled for some time to come, and are
making preparations to care for IDPs through the winter.
Both in recent meetings with various visiting USG
delegations and in the press, Tariq Khan has complained of
Taliban militants infiltrating across the border from
Afghanistan -- perhaps 200 Afghan militants entering Bajaur
Agency every two to three days, he says.


4. (C) USAID's Office of Transition Initiatives (OTI),
through its FATA Transition Initiatives (FTI) program, has
been able to get a team into Khar, the capital of Bajaur.
The Political Agent has been extremely supportive, providing
office and warehouse space and facilitating contacts between
FTI and Bajaur community leaders. To demonstrate that the
situation is returning to normal, he recently traveled on
foot from his compound to the FTI offices. That said,
security remains a serious problem; a cash-for-work program
that had recently begun was stopped the week of Oct. 20 for
security reasons.


5. (SBU) FTI has 1500 kits of non-food items ready for
distribution, and AID's regular development program is
prepared to come in behind with more supplies. In addition,
once security permits, FTI staff are prepared to go to the
Salarzai area of Bajaur, which borders Konar province in
Afghanistan and is the home of one of the larger tribes, to
explore delivering aid and cash-for-work programs there as
well as in the central districts.


6. (C) Separately, the Civil Military Support Element
(CMSE),as part of its support for the Frontier Corps (FC),
has provided USD 70,000 in women's and children's clothing,
blankets, cold weather shawls, and shoes in women's and
children's sizes to the FC for distribution to those
displaced or affected by the fighting. The Sector Commander,
Bajaur Scouts, and the Political Agent coordinated the
distribution of these supplies to some of the poorest
affected families in Salarzai and Utmankhel tehsils of Bajaur
Agency.


ISLAMABAD 00003419 002 OF 002



SOME HOPEFUL SIGNS IN OTHER AGENCIES
--------------


7. (C) Elsewhere in the FATA, there have been a few
encouraging signs. Ref B discussed the formation of lashkars
in some of the tribal Agencies, as well as retaliation from
militants in several areas, including Orazkai, where a
suicide bomber attacked a tribal gathering, reportedly
killing at least 100 people. Local observers report the Ali
Khel tribe in Orakzai has decided to expel those accused of
responsibility for the bombing and/or of harboring taliban.
Families, mostly women and children, are reportedly vacating
the area as a result. One contact thought that about 500
families may have moved, although we do not have any
confirmation of numbers.


8. (C) In South Waziristan, an FTI field team was able to
travel to Wana, where they met with the political
administration and tribal elders. The Political Agent
welcomed the team and said he was open to starting some
projects in the Agency, including in Angoor Ada and Tuyi;
however, tribal elders made clear they would not tolerate the
presence of NGOs in the Agency. The field team will produce
several proposals and plans to return for further discussions.


9. (SBU) The FTI program has been encouraging closer
coordination between political administrations and
communities. In Frontier Region Peshawar, the Assistant
Political Agent and tribal elders have signed a security
coordination agreement providing for community members to
work with khassadars (local security forces reporting to the
Political Agent) to patrol their areas and establish
checkpoints. While not clear how long this initiative will
last, early reports are that it has reduced militant activity
to some extent.

OUTREACH EFFORTS
--------------


10. (C) Prior to the August attack on the Principal Officer
in Peshawar and the September bombing of the Marriott Hotel
in Islamabad, the Embassy and Consulate Peshawar conducted
several briefings for various GOP and provincial government
personnel on USG assistance activities in the FATA and NWFP.
Nevertheless, a perception exists, both at the national and
provincial level, that the USG has been slow to act. Embassy
will resume briefings, both at the local level and for senior
officials, including the National Security Advisor and
President Zardari, with an initial focus on what the USG is
doing on the Bajaur IDP situation. In addition, OTI will
continue to assist the provincial and local governments
within the FATA and NWFP with preparing press releases when
various projects end or major steps in relief efforts are
taken. (Note. OTI reports that they have assisted with
approximately 250 press releases for local press. However,
OTI notes that little initiative exists on the Pakistani side
to prepare or release these press statements on their own.
End Note)

COMMENT
--------------


11. (C) Small victories, like the formation of lashkars in
some Agencies and the openings to local government assistance
in Bajaur and South Waziristan, are positive signs.
Likewise, the determination of both the military and, so far,
the civilian government, to stick with the fight against the
militants are encouraging. Still, there is a long way to go.
Efforts to provide humanitarian assistance in Bajaur are
still stymied by security threats, and despite FC claims to
have taken Lowi Sam, some fighting continues there. We judge
that the various insurgent groups, including Al Qaeda, will
fight hard for the safe haven they have enjoyed in the FATA
until now. Embassy is making a fresh assessment of the
needs, given the possible opening in Bajaur, as well as
expectations IDPs will remain displaced throughout the
winter. Septel will recommend next steps and additional
funding.
PATTERSON
PATTERSON