Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08ISLAMABAD327
2008-01-22 13:37:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Islamabad
Cable title:
FORMER PUNJAB CHIEF MINISTER PERVAIZ ELAHI OPPOSES
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C O N F I D E N T I A L ISLAMABAD 000327
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PTER ECON PK
SUBJECT: FORMER PUNJAB CHIEF MINISTER PERVAIZ ELAHI OPPOSES
ELECTION DELAY
Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L ISLAMABAD 000327
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PTER ECON PK
SUBJECT: FORMER PUNJAB CHIEF MINISTER PERVAIZ ELAHI OPPOSES
ELECTION DELAY
Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
1. (C) Summary: During a courtesy call on former Punjab Chief
Minister and Punjab Pakistan Muslim League (PML) leader
Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi on Thursday January 17 by CDA, Elahi
dismissed this week's speculation of establishing a new
national consensus government and postponement of elections
as a desperate ploy initiated by the Sharif brothers. He
added it was never under serious consideration by President
Musharraf or the PML leadership. He also predicted the PML
will win a plurality of seats in next month's elections and
conceded that the next government will be confronted with a
number of economic challenges. Finally Elahi agreed to share
information about a recent security incident in Sarghoda with
the USG. End summary.
2. (C) According to Elahi, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz
(PML-N) leaders and brothers Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif
initiated contact with Brig (ret) Niaz Ahmad to establish a
national consensus government and delay elections, perhaps in
order to buy more time to organize their party to ensure a
better electoral performance. Elahi stated Musharraf
personally told him he had nothing to do with initiating such
contact and did not support those measures. Elahi said it
would be a disaster for Pakistan to delay elections beyond
February 18 since it would only serve to destabilize the
already tense political situation. He reiterated that he has
consistently encouraged Musharraf to hold elections and that
his position has not changed.
3. (C) Elahi confidently predicted the PML would garner a
plurality of more than 100 seats in the National Assembly and
take a majority of seats in the Punjab Provincial Assembly.
He stated the PML has a proud record of development in Punjab
province and that each of his candidates is campaigning in
their respective electoral districts with detailed
information on development projects down to the union council
level. In addition, he stated the PPP's sympathy vote in the
wake of Benazir Bhutto's assassination is not great enough to
swing any particular election in Punjab province. Finally he
stated the polls that predict a PML drubbing in the upcoming
elections are not accurate since it is difficult to
effectively poll in the rural areas of the country.
4. (C) Elahi stated he is taking personal security cautions
and had recently cancelled two scheduled public appearances.
He pointed out that his security detail found explosives
hidden in a water cooler at a recent campaign rally in
Sarghoda. His intelligence sources also said militants
planned to hide explosives in milk cans as well. Upon the
CDA's request, he promised to put his security experts in
contact with USG law enforcement to provide details on the
explosive devices found.
5. (C) The former Chief Minister also stated the next
government will need to take bold decisions and take
political hits to resolve the serious economic problems
emanating from fuel subsidies, electricity load shedding,
natural gas load shedding and the wheat shortage. He noted
that the general population can not have everything
subsidized and that the new government would have to wean the
voters from the significant government subsidies on consumer
goods. He acknowledged this would be a tough sell. He went
on to admit, however, that he has asked the caretaker
government and Musharraf not to act until after the elections.
6. (C) Comment: At this point the issue of a national
consensus government, whatever its genesis, is moot. Pervaiz
Elahi and his party's chances in the Punjab, however, may be
in greater doubt than he claims. The PPP sympathy vote still
seems to be a very potent factor, and Elahi's ties to the
decreasingly popular Musharraf continue to dim his party's
chances at the polls. Finally, should he find himself in
power after February 18, we find it hard to believe that
Pervaiz Elahi will have the political backbone to tackle the
serious economic issues that not one of his predecessors has
dared take on. End comment.
PATTERSON
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/21/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PTER ECON PK
SUBJECT: FORMER PUNJAB CHIEF MINISTER PERVAIZ ELAHI OPPOSES
ELECTION DELAY
Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)
1. (C) Summary: During a courtesy call on former Punjab Chief
Minister and Punjab Pakistan Muslim League (PML) leader
Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi on Thursday January 17 by CDA, Elahi
dismissed this week's speculation of establishing a new
national consensus government and postponement of elections
as a desperate ploy initiated by the Sharif brothers. He
added it was never under serious consideration by President
Musharraf or the PML leadership. He also predicted the PML
will win a plurality of seats in next month's elections and
conceded that the next government will be confronted with a
number of economic challenges. Finally Elahi agreed to share
information about a recent security incident in Sarghoda with
the USG. End summary.
2. (C) According to Elahi, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz
(PML-N) leaders and brothers Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif
initiated contact with Brig (ret) Niaz Ahmad to establish a
national consensus government and delay elections, perhaps in
order to buy more time to organize their party to ensure a
better electoral performance. Elahi stated Musharraf
personally told him he had nothing to do with initiating such
contact and did not support those measures. Elahi said it
would be a disaster for Pakistan to delay elections beyond
February 18 since it would only serve to destabilize the
already tense political situation. He reiterated that he has
consistently encouraged Musharraf to hold elections and that
his position has not changed.
3. (C) Elahi confidently predicted the PML would garner a
plurality of more than 100 seats in the National Assembly and
take a majority of seats in the Punjab Provincial Assembly.
He stated the PML has a proud record of development in Punjab
province and that each of his candidates is campaigning in
their respective electoral districts with detailed
information on development projects down to the union council
level. In addition, he stated the PPP's sympathy vote in the
wake of Benazir Bhutto's assassination is not great enough to
swing any particular election in Punjab province. Finally he
stated the polls that predict a PML drubbing in the upcoming
elections are not accurate since it is difficult to
effectively poll in the rural areas of the country.
4. (C) Elahi stated he is taking personal security cautions
and had recently cancelled two scheduled public appearances.
He pointed out that his security detail found explosives
hidden in a water cooler at a recent campaign rally in
Sarghoda. His intelligence sources also said militants
planned to hide explosives in milk cans as well. Upon the
CDA's request, he promised to put his security experts in
contact with USG law enforcement to provide details on the
explosive devices found.
5. (C) The former Chief Minister also stated the next
government will need to take bold decisions and take
political hits to resolve the serious economic problems
emanating from fuel subsidies, electricity load shedding,
natural gas load shedding and the wheat shortage. He noted
that the general population can not have everything
subsidized and that the new government would have to wean the
voters from the significant government subsidies on consumer
goods. He acknowledged this would be a tough sell. He went
on to admit, however, that he has asked the caretaker
government and Musharraf not to act until after the elections.
6. (C) Comment: At this point the issue of a national
consensus government, whatever its genesis, is moot. Pervaiz
Elahi and his party's chances in the Punjab, however, may be
in greater doubt than he claims. The PPP sympathy vote still
seems to be a very potent factor, and Elahi's ties to the
decreasingly popular Musharraf continue to dim his party's
chances at the polls. Finally, should he find himself in
power after February 18, we find it hard to believe that
Pervaiz Elahi will have the political backbone to tackle the
serious economic issues that not one of his predecessors has
dared take on. End comment.
PATTERSON