WATER DISPUTE BETWEEN PAKISTAN AND INDIA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ISLAMABAD 003169

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ECON ETRD EAID EFIN ENGY PK
SUBJECT: WATER DISPUTE BETWEEN PAKISTAN AND INDIA


1. (SBU) Summary: Construction on the first phase of the Baglihar
Hydroelectric Power Project, on the Chenab River in the
Indian-administered state of Jammu and Kashmir was completed in
August. Since then, Pakistan claims that water shares, as laid out
in 1960 Indus Water Treaty, have been drastically reduced, and that
India has illegally filled the dam, contrary to a previously agreed
upon schedule. Since 1999, Pakistan has raised concerns that the
design parameters of the dam are illegal under the treaty. Indian
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is reported by the media to have
invited Pakistan's Water Commissioner to inspect the Baglihar dam,
however no official visit has been scheduled to date. End Summary.


WATER SCARCITY IN PAKISTAN
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -


2. (SBU) Pakistan claims that under the 1960 Indus Water treaty,
Pakistan should receive 55,000 cusecs of water however Pakistan's
share was drastically reduced within recent weeks and has
significantly damaged crop production. Pakistan further claims that
they received less than half of their allotted share of water with
only approximately 13,000 cusecs during the winter (October-March)
and a maximum of 29,000 cusecs during the summer (April-October).
India claims that any reduction in water levels is due to drought
conditions in the catchment areas of the Chenab River. Pakistani
officials agree that the flow was lower than normal but suspect
India of foul play since India did not give Pakistan water inflow
and outflow data and managed to fill the Baglihar Dam within one
month of completion.


3. (SBU) Pakistan's Commissioner for Indus Waters, Syed Jamait Ali
Shah, told EconOff that under the Indus Water Treaty, India and
Pakistan's commissioners were supposed to agree to a schedule for
filling the dam. Pakistan made a request to solidify agreement on a
schedule in February 2008, with similar requests made again in May
and June. According to Shah, Indian counterparts sent an email on
August 7 stating that they will tentatively be filling the dam
August 10 through August 31, 2008. However, on August 19,
Pakistan's water flows were suddenly reduced by 20,000 cusecs and
Pakistan believes this reduced flow is due to India's illegal
storage of 0.2 million cubic acre-feet of water in the dam.
Pakistan protested officially through the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs on September 4, 5 and 12, but has not yet received any reply
from the Government of India. Commissioner Shah said that "Pakistan
would have facilitated India filling its dam by agreeing to use
Chenab water and releasing more water in river Ravi and Sultej, a
mechanism that has been successfully tried before." Shah further
claimed that "water experts from the Indian side were significantly
deficient in performing their duties and it would not be very
difficult for Pakistan to prove that India was holding water
illegally when it gets to arbitration."


4. (SBU) Media reports that on September 24, on the margins of the
United Nations meetings, Pakistan's President Asif Ali Zardari
raised the issue with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh who has
pledged to resolve the water dispute with Pakistan in the spirit of
the Indus Water Treaty. Singh invited Pakistan's Water Commissioner
to visit India in October to inspect the controversial Baglihar Dam
project on the Chenab River. Commissioner Shah further remarked to
EconOff that he had "not received an official invitation to visit
the dam site yet" but noted that "I will go if and when the Indians
permit me to come."


Design Controversy and Verdict
--------------


5. (U) Baglihar Dam, also known as Baglihar Hydroelectric Power
Project, is a run-of-the-river power project on the Chenab River in
the southern Doda district of the Indian-administered state of Jammu
and Kashmir. The project was conceived in 1992 and approved in

1996. Construction began in 1999, with the first phase scheduled to
be complete in 2004. Disputes on specification delayed the first
phase of the project, which was just completed in September with an
installed capacity of 450 mega watts at a cost of USD 335 million.
India has not announced when the second phase will begin but plans
included expansion to 900 mega watts of installed capacity at an
estimated cost of USD 1 billion.


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6. (U) After construction began in 1999, Pakistan raised concerns
that the design parameters of Baglihar Dam violated the Indus Water
Treaty of 1960. The Indus Water Treaty provided India with
exclusive control to three eastern rivers - the Sutlej, the Beas and
the Ravi - while Pakistan gained exclusive control over three
western rivers - the Indus, the Jhelum and the Chenab. The Indus
Water Treaty contains provisions allowing India and Pakistan to
establish river-run power projects with limited reservoir capacity
and flow control needed for feasible power generation. Pakistan has
not objected to several run-of-the-river projects undertaken by
India, however concerns were raised over Baglihar. Pakistan claimed
that some design parameters exceeded what was needed for feasible
power generation and that India would gain an excessive ability to
accelerate, decelerate or block the flow of the river.


7. (U) Between 1999-2004 India and Pakistan held several rounds of
talks on the design of projects without agreement and after the
failure of these talks on January 18, 2005, Pakistan raised six
objections to the World Bank, a broker and signatory of Indus Water
Treaty. In April 2005, the World Bank decided that Pakistan's claim
constituted a "Difference", a classification between the less
serious "Question" and the more serious "Dispute" under the Indus
Water Treaty. In May 2005, Professor Raymond Lafitte, a Swiss civil
engineer, was appointed by the World Bank to adjudicate the
difference.


8. (SBU) Lafitte declared his final verdict on February 12, 2007,
and partially upheld some of Pakistan's objections, such as
declaring that the storage capacity of Baglihar Dam be reduced by
13.5 percent, the height of the dam structure be reduced by 1.5
meters and the power intake tunnels be raised by 3 meters, thereby
limiting some flow control capabilities compared to the earlier
design. However, Lafitte rejected Pakistani objections on the
height and gated control of the spillway and declared that these
conform to the present engineering norms.


9. (SBU) Both Pakistan and India agreed that they will abide by the
final verdict and the World Bank's final report acknowledged India's
right to construct gated spillways and allowed storage of 32.58
million cubic meters as opposed to India's demand for 37.5 million
cubic meters. The report also recommended a reduction of the height
of the dam from 4.5 meters to 3.0 meters.


10. (SBU) Comment: Indian claims that the Chenab River had less
water this year is true to some extent, but the fact that India
filled Baglihar with 0.2 million cubic acre-feet of water is also
telling. This may be a reason India has not shared water inflow and
outflow data with Pakistan and Pakistan's multiple requests to
agree to a schedule to fill the dam fell on deaf ears. Restarting a
Composite Dialogue is perhaps the only way to find an amicable
solution to this and many other potential disputes between the
neighbors. As economic woes in Pakistan continue to intensify,
domestic agricultural production becomes more essential for food
security and water becomes a more highly sought commodity across the
line of control.

PATTERSON