OUTREACH TO ASFUNDYAR WALI KHAN AND CHAUDHRY NISAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ISLAMABAD 003070

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2018
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV MOPS PK
SUBJECT: OUTREACH TO ASFUNDYAR WALI KHAN AND CHAUDHRY NISAR

Classified By: Anne W. Patterson, for reasons 1.4 (b)(d)


1. (C) Summary. In separate discussions with Ambassador
September 19, Awami National Party leader Asfundyar Wali Khan
and Pakistan Muslim League-N leader Chaudhry Nisar both said
they were encouraged by signs that some local tribes had
decided to rise up and fight militants. Khan said candidly
that the Pashtuns accepted occasional air attacks, especially
if they targeted foreigners, but daily air attacks or the
presence of U.S. ground troops were very unhelpful and
undercut the GOP's efforts to encourage locals to combat
militants. Nisar was cagier, noting that U.S. attacks over
the past few weeks hurt the hearts and minds campaign; he
called for more transparency in the bilateral relationship
and reserved the right to criticize U.S. actions to remain
politically credible.


2. (C) Khan, who recently complained to Chief of Army Staff
Kayani about the slow pace of military operations in Swat,
praised Pakistani military action in Bajaur, which has been
made more difficult by militant control of a network of
tunnels. Khan hinted that the reason Baitullah Mehsud had
not responded to U.S. attacks on a Haqqani-controlled site
was that the Pakistani Army had made a secret deal with the
Waziri tribe. Nisar shared his view that relations between
Zardari and the Army were troubled. While noting Zardari's
thin majority in the parliament, Nisar pledged to be a
responsible Opposition Leader but suggested that Zardari
should consult the opposition if he wanted support on
critical economic reforms. End Summary.


3. (C) Ambassador and Polcouns met September 19 separately
with Awami National Party (ANP) leader Asfundyar Wali Khan,
who was elected September 18 to be the Chairman of the
National Assembly's Foreign Affairs Committee, and Pakistan
Muslim League-N (PML-N) leader Chaudhry Nisar. Nisar was
voted in as Leader of the Opposition by the National Assembly
earlier that morning.

Reaction to U.S. Action
--------------


4. (C) Khan said candidly that the Pashtuns accepted
occasional air attacks, especially if they targeted
foreigners, but daily air attacks or the presence of U.S.
ground troops were very unhelpful. Noting that local
tribesmen were just beginning to take up arms themselves
against the militants, Khan said this was what had to happen
to defeat the Taliban. For this strategy to succeed,
however, the GOP had to win a hearts and minds campaign with
the tribes, and U.S. unilateral action undermined this
campaign.


5. (C) Khan asked, "Where is Baitullah Mehsud? Siraj
Haqqani is the big boss and Baitullah is his commander in
chief. After you hit the Haqqani compound, why didn't Mehsud
react?" Khan went on to suggest that the U.S. carefully
examine the statement made by the 4,000-strong Waziri jirga
that met earlier this week. According to press statements,
the jirga said the tribe would ally with the Pakistani
military to defend Pakistan against U.S. attacks; it also
said that if the attacks continue, the tribe's ceasefire
agreement with the military would be canceled.


6. (C) Nisar told Ambassador that former President
Musharraf had been tainted in Pakistani eyes because he was
seen as too pro-U.S., so Musharraf's campaign against the
militants was also seen as a U.S. war. To turn that around,
Pakistanis must see the war as their fight against an
insurgency. Nisar avoided saying that PML-N opposed either
air attacks or U.S. ground action. What he did say was that
the PML-N would have to criticize the GOP for allowing U.S.
action. Otherwise, said Nisar, the party would have no
credibility with the people. He called for more transparency
about U.S. policy and actions saying that confusion bred
unhelpful conspiracy theories.

Military Action
--------------


7. (C) Khan said he had met this week with Chief of Army
Staff General Kayani in one of their regular discussions
about military operations in the Northwest Frontier Province

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(NWFP) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).
Khan praised the Bajaur operation as the only serious
military action to date and asked Kayani why the Pakistani
security forces had made so little progress in Swat. Khan
reported that he had given the Army the location/coordinates
of Tehrik Nifaz Shariat-e-Muhammmadi (TNSM) leader Maulana
Fazlullah and urged them to strike the location or ask the
Americans to strike, but nothing happened. Khan noted that
because of historical discouragement, the Swatis have few
weapons with which to fight back without support of the Army.


8. (C) Referring to two separate instances September 18 in
Dir (NWFP) in which locals turned on militants, Khan said he
was increasingly encouraged by signs that tribes were fed up
with the Taliban. He related two stories where information
from local tribesmen resulted in the police seizing rocket
launchers and heavy weapons from militants hiding within the
community. Khan said he urged the locals near Bajaur to
revolt against the militants; in response one town leader
said they would like to rise up but, in a community of 500
people, they had two AK-47s and only a handful of ammunition.
Ambassador noted that Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Admiral
Mullen had discussed September 17 with Kayani the need to
help the GOP reward tribes that were taking anti-militant
action; the U.S. was helping civilians who had fled the
fighting in Bajaur and would explore ways to help these
tribes as well.


9. (C) In Bajaur, Khan confirmed what we have heard from
Army and Interior Ministry sources. The militants are using
an elaborate system of tunnels, most likely created in the
1980's mujahadeen days, to evade capture. This has made the
Army's task of clearing the area much more difficult. Local
tribes are raising lashkars (armed tribal posses) to assist
the security forces, said Khan. But he worried about what
will happen when the Army has to move to Mohmand Agency;
according to Khan, after the Waziristans, Mohmand has the
largest concentration of mujahadeen-era inter-marriages
between foreign militants and local tribes. Khan said that
Pakistan faced difficult times ahead--"this is going to be
bloodier than Afghanistan, and we have to be prepared for it."


10. (C) Nisar also told Ambassador that he was optimistic
about the "first stirrings" of a popular revolt against the
Taliban. Asked about relations between the GOP and the
military, however, Nisar responded that they were not good.
The Army, claimed Nisar, was exhausted and needed to be
energized to fight militancy. Despite surface indications of
good will, Nisar said there was deep distrust of Zardari
among senior military leaders. He noted the coincidence of
Zardari filing his nomination papers to run for president on
the same day that the Swiss announced they would return USD
60 million in frozen assets to Zardari. Zardari needed to
take the first step of reaching out to the Army, but there
were few incentives on the part of the civilians or the
military to resolve their differences.

New Opposition Leader
--------------


11. (C) Ambassador met Nisar just after he had been voted
as the new Opposition Leader in the National Assembly.
Pakistan Muslim League (PML) leader Pervaiz Elahai resigned
from the position on September 14, in a move that many
analysts saw as a precursor to a plan for the PML and the
Pakistan People's Party to oust Nawaz Sharif's PML-N party
from power in the Punjab. In a press conference September
18, Nisar said he would work to convince President Zardari to
repeal the 17th amendment, resign as co-chair of the Pakistan
People's Party (PPP),and restore the deposed judges. Nisar
was also appointed to become the Chairman of the Public
Accounts Committee that reviews spending of all the
ministries.


12. (C) Nisar said that after Musharraf's resignation,
there should have been more space for the U.S. and Pakistan
to work together under a civilian government. He was
concerned that with the events of the past few weeks the two
sides had lost an opportunity and urged that we find a way to
better manage the relationship. As always, Nisar insisted
that he and the PML-N were pro-American. (Saying that his
wife and children in fact are American, Nisar did admit that
he went to the U.S. Embassy in London to renew his daughter's

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passport because he wanted to avoid being seen at the U.S.
Embassy in Islamabad.)


13. (C) Nisar urged that we engage in a kind of catharsis
at both the governmental and non-governmental level. He
wanted to focus on young parliamentarians and was also
reaching out to the UK to establish an exchange program for
them. Nisar said that, after the Eid holiday, he would share
some ideas for ways to diffuse anti-Americanism in Pakistan.
Ambassador agreed to encourage ties between the U.S. and
Pakistani parliamentarians and organize some training
programs for the staff of the Public Accounts Committee.
Nisar admitted that introducing transparency and
accountability in the GOP would be a huge challenge.


14. (C) Insisting several times that he will be a
responsible opposition leader, Nisar claimed that the PML-N
had learned the lessons of the past 8-10 years and would now
ensure that democracy in Pakistan works at both the center
and in the Punjab. He went on to note, however, that Zardari
has only a six seat majority in the central government. That
means that Fazlur Rehman, the Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM),
or the FATA parliamentarians alone or acting in some
combination can bring down the government. He pledged to
help PM Gilani fight off blackmail from any of the groups but
noted that the MQM was already making demands. In Nasir's
view, the PPP has a blood feud with the PML, which will find
it very difficult to support Zardari, either in the center or
in the Punjab. He admitted there was a PPP sub-group trying
to destabilize PML-N rule in the Punjab but hoped that
Zardari would back off and not push Nawaz and Shahbaz Sharif
into a corner. This, said Nisar, would be unhelpful for
everyone.


15. (C) Ambassador asked if the PML-N would support the
economic reforms and international financial institution
(IFI) backing required to restore market and investor
confidence. Nisar said the PML-N would strongly oppose an
official International Monetary Fund (IMF) package but
understood the need for some sort of IFI blessing to entice
investors back. But he urged Zardari to take the opposition
into confidence if he wants their support. Nisar noted that
former PML-N Petroleum and Privatization Minister Khwaja Asif
agreed to see Zardari on September 19, possibly to discuss
privatization issues.


16. (C) In closing, Nisar noted that this is potentially
the most powerful Pakistani government that he has seen in 25
years -- they control the presidency, the prime ministership,
three provincial assemblies and four governorships; they have
a friendly Army chief and a compliant judiciary. Yet, they
have not managed to get anything accomplished because they
have been too closeted on political party lines.


17. (C) Comment: There is a growing convergence of views
among Pakistani politicians that U.S. attacks undermine
nascent local efforts to rise up against the militants; we
will continue to seek ways to help the GOP reward those
efforts. Nisar appears to be positioning himself to be a
candidate for Prime Minister if the Sharifs are disqualified
in the upcoming battle with the PPP over control of the
Punjab. Nisar is at heart a nationalist, and he will be an
eloquent and formidable Opposition Leader. But he does
recognize the need to stay in the good graces of the U.S.,
and we should invite him to Washington when an opportunity
arises. We have offered Khan and his Foreign Affairs
Committee a briefing on U.S. development assistance and
military/intelligence operations; he also plans to be in New
York around October 10. We also understand that former
Interior Minister Sherpao will soon be in New York for a
Council on Foreign Relations event.

PATTERSON